At present, the number of confirmed cases of new crown in the world has exceeded 60 million, and many countries have implemented stricter epidemic prevention measures. Experts reminded to be highly vigilant against the rebound of the winter epidemic. On the domestic front, economic and trade continued to recover steadily, and the vitality of the manufacturing market increased. In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers index continued to rebound from the previous month. In late November, the China Ports Association monitored that the cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports dropped slightly by 0.4% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade cargo throughput dropped by 3.4% year-on-year; the Yangtze River port production accelerated, and the hub port throughput increased by 24.7% year-on-year. Details are as follows:
1. The container business of the eight major hub ports rebounded steadily
On the one hand, the current domestic epidemic prevention and control has achieved practical results, and the manufacturing industry has effectively recovered under various policy incentives; on the other hand, the recovery of external demand has driven a significant increase in foreign trade export orders. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the manufacturing new orders index and the import and export prosperity index both rebounded steadily in October. In late November, the China Ports Association monitored that the container throughput of the eight major hub ports increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5 percentage points lower than the previous period; of which, the container throughput of foreign trade increased by 3.8% year-on-year, and the domestic trade increased by 3.6% year-on-year. In terms of ports, the container throughput of Tianjin, Qingdao, Shanghai and Shenzhen ports increased by more than 10%. It is worth noting that the freight rate of the US route has continued to be high recently, and the market freight rate of the European ground route has also risen sharply year-on-year due to the significant increase in cargo sources. The shortage of space and cargo containers on ocean routes is more prominent.
2. Key monitoring port coal business continues to maintain a rebound trend
In late November, the temperature fell across the country, and the rapid recovery of power plant loads along the river and coastal areas led to a significant increase in daily coal consumption. The decline in available days of inventory boosted market procurement enthusiasm. The number of anchor ships in northern ports increased significantly, and the amount of coal launched continued to increase. In the current period, the coal throughput of Qinhuangdao Port and Shenhua Huanghua Port increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and increased by 2.9% from mid-year. Port inventory continued to decline. On November 30, the coal inventory of the two ports decreased by 18.5% year-on-year, which was a decrease of 1.4% from November 20.
3. Crude oil throughput of key monitoring ports dropped year-on-year
Recently, fuel prices have risen for four consecutive weeks under the stimulus of positive progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, a weak U.S. dollar, and tensions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, OPEC and allies still tend to postpone oil production increases plans to support the market during the second wave of the global epidemic. In this period, the China Ports Association focused on monitoring the crude oil throughput of coastal ports, which decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, but increased by 3.1% from the middle. Port stocks are sufficient. Crude oil stocks at the ports monitored on November 30 increased by 26.8% compared with the same period last year and increased by 3.2% from November 20.
4. Key monitoring port metal ore throughput growth has accelerated
Recently, the steel market demand has been generally stable, and steel stocks have continued to decline month-on-month. Weather factors in the northern region have a certain impact on the demand for building materials, and the boom in the manufacturing industry drives the demand for industrial steel. Steel mills are generally profitable and have high production enthusiasm. The price of iron ore repeatedly broke new historical highs. On the 30th, the contract price of iron ore 2101 reached 911.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% from the 20th. On November 24, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and other four ministries jointly issued a document stating that my country will completely ban the import of scrap steel from 2021, which will also boost iron ore prices to a certain extent. In late November, the China Ports Association's key monitoring port metal ore throughput increased by 16.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased significantly. Among them, the growth rate of Tianjin Port and Rizhao Port both exceeded 15%, and the growth rate of Ningbo Zhoushan Port exceeded 30%. Downstream steel mills have strong demand, and port inventory has shown a downward trend. Statistics show that on November 30, the key monitoring port inventory decreased by 4.9% year-on-year.
5. Throughput growth of the Yangtze River hub port has accelerated overall
In late November, production at the ports of the Yangtze River accelerated in an all-round way, reflecting the positive economic recovery in the hinterland. Statistics show that the cargo throughput of the three ports of Nanjing, Wuhan, and Chongqing increased by 24.7% year-on-year, 12% faster than the previous period, and the throughput of foreign trade cargo also maintained a rapid growth. Among them, the growth rate of Nanjing Port was nearly 30%, and that of Wuhan Port and Chongqing Port was about 20%. The container business further accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 26.9%, an acceleration of about 10 percentage points over the previous period; the growth rate of Wuhan Port exceeded 90%.
6. Overview of key monitoring port production in November
In November, the cargo throughput of coastal ports monitored by the China Ports Association increased by 4% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 1.1% from January to November.
The container business continued to maintain a good recovery trend. In November, the container throughput of the eight major hub ports increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points lower than that in October. Among them, foreign trade increased by 8.4%, a drop of 3.5 percentage points from October, and domestic trade increased by 9.4% year-on-year, slightly faster than October. In terms of ports, the growth rate of container throughput in Tianjin, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo Zhoushan and Shenzhen ports all exceeded 10%. The cumulative container throughput of the eight major hub ports from January to November returned to the level of the same period last year.
The coal market has entered a peak demand season, and throughput growth has accelerated. The coal throughput of Qinhuangdao Port and Shenhua Huanghua Port in November increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was about 1 percentage point higher than that in October. The cumulative decline from January to November was 4.4% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed.
Crude oil imports slowed further. The throughput of key monitoring ports in November fell by 4.2% year-on-year, which was the first year-on-year decline since April. The cumulative increase from January to November was 8.9% year-on-year.
The growth rate of ore throughput dropped. The ore throughput of key monitoring ports in November increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 2 percentage points from October. The cumulative increase from January to November was 7.6% year-on-year.
Production at the Yangtze River Port has been accelerated. In November, the cargo throughput and container throughput of the Yangtze River hub port increased by 18.7% and 18.8% year-on-year respectively, setting the highest growth rate for the year. From January to November, cargo throughput and container throughput dropped by 3.4% and 4.9% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed.
China Ports Association
December 5, 2020
