Due to the prevalence of port congestion and box shortages in Europe and the United States, freight volumes on the European and American routes will remain high.
Industry insiders predict that shipments from Asia to Europe will continue into the third quarter, and delays in US and European ports will continue to be the main bottleneck in the supply chain.
The National Retail Federation (hereinafter referred to as NRF, The National Retail Federation) predicts that this year's retail spending and consumer demand may further soar, the increase may be as high as 8.2%. According to NRF data, due to the substantial increase in demand, container throughput will increase by 23% in the first half of the year.
Consultant Jon Monroe pointed out, “Given that many importers are struggling with low inventories, replenishing inventory in order to meet their volume may be the key driving force for this year’s growth. Therefore, the question that everyone needs to face is how to deal with another possible occurrence. A turbulent year?"
Monroe said that most cargo owners (BCO) now intend to end contract negotiations and try to plan for expected market fluctuations, which may mean that contract requirements have not been met, soaring freight rates and shipping schedule reliability have been put on hold again.
Monroe made some suggestions for companies facing supply chain disruptions this year, including finding alternative delivery ports for imported goods other than Los Angeles and Long Beach, while optimizing warehouse efficiency while free time is reduced.
According to the table below, it is currently estimated that the "new normal" delivery time for goods arriving on the West Coast of the United States is currently expected plus 4 to 5 weeks.
The estimated delivery time (cargo is delivered via DC) is an additional 4 weeks for LA-LB port (an additional week this year)
The current situation of European cargo owners is similar to that of the United States. Port congestion is still the main problem, and the shortage of containers has exacerbated these difficulties. Especially in the United Kingdom, due to the problem of the space for storing empty containers, there has been a significant increase in delays in container delivery. Brexit has also had a certain impact.
According to data from Container xChange, “the trade interruption and continued congestion after Brexit are causing serious container accumulation in British ports.” said Dr. Johannes Schlingmeier, CEO of xChange, when the CAx index exceeds 0.5, it indicates that more containers are imported than exported. The index "increased significantly last year, with 40-foot containers rising from 0.71 to 0.86, and 20-foot containers rising from an average of 0.72 to 0.85."
Schlingmeier said, “The British ports are full of empty containers. If this problem becomes too serious, you may see additional charges for new (arriving) containers next.”
Container xChange stated that the link between Brexit and CAx is that as the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, British ports (mainly the Port of Felixstowe, but also the ports of Liverpool and Southampton) are facing severe congestion. British companies have become a problem, and some shipping companies have increased surcharges.
"To make matters worse, some shipping companies are currently unloading at EU ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam and Antwerp to avoid congestion at British ports. As a result, the CAx values of these ports have increased in the past few weeks," Schlingmeier explained. And added a reminder that CAx will further monitor the number of containers entering and leaving the port. Four or five months ago, shipping companies waited for return goods at European ports for two months, and now they are "carrying back to Asia with empty containers full."
Clarkson predicts that the volume of seaborne trade this year will exceed the level of 2019
Clarkson Research Services acknowledged that major uncertainties still exist, but it is expected that the global seaborne trade for the whole year of 2021 is not only expected to return to the level of 2019, but also expected to be this level.
Clarkson predicts that this year's seaborne trade volume will increase by 4.2% to 12 billion tons, which is 0.5% higher than the level in 2019. Clarkson estimated in a recent weekly report that in 2020, global seaborne trade will fall -3.6% for the whole year to 11.5 billion tons. In the first few weeks of 2021, most non-tank shipping industries will show high utilization rates and high rates.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.5% this year. Following a 3.5% drop last year, the economy in 2021 will grow by 1.8% over 2019. Looking at emerging economies and developed economies separately, only emerging economies will return to the level of 2019 this year. The IMF expects that emerging economies will grow by 6.3% and will fall by 2.4% in 2020. On the other hand, advanced economies are expected to grow by 4.3%, which is lower than the 4.9% decline in 2020.
A report from the Baltic International Chamber of Shipping (BIMCO) at the end of last month pointed out that the recovery in 2021 will not bring good news to everyone. The exact speed of the recovery will depend on the development of the epidemic and changes in travel restrictions and other containment measures.
The prosperous situation of the container shipping market will continue for a longer period of time. The profit of the shipping company in the first quarter of this year is expected to increase to several times that of the fourth quarter of last year, and the profit in the second quarter will be equal to or higher than that of the first quarter.
After the Spring Festival, the congestion problem of European and American ports has not been relieved as expected. Instead, it has spread everywhere. Major international ports such as Los Angeles, Oakland, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Felice Du, Liverpool, and Le Havre continued to be congested. Singapore is not immune. Although the current shortage of containers has improved, it is estimated that as the volume begins to increase at the end of March, it will return to the original situation in April.
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, pointed out that Asian terminals currently operate 24 hours a day, while berths on the west coast of the United States work 112 hours a week, container terminals work 88-90 hours a week, and land operations are limited to daytime. Therefore, the current situation of the trans-Pacific route is unlikely to improve in the short term.
On the whole, the off-season of the shipping market after the Spring Festival this year is not weak. The number of days for seasonal correction of freight rates before and after New Year's Eve is between 50 and 64 days. The rate of freight rate decline is between 17% and 27%. After the festival, only 3.8% is revised, which is still obvious. Less than historical convention.
Looking forward to the market outlook, analysis institutions are optimistic about the market performance this year. Drewry predicts that the global container shipping demand growth rate will reach 10.9% in 2021, which is much higher than the 4.5% growth rate of supply.
The Danish shipping consulting agency Sea-Intelligence also estimates that the surge in freight rates may continue until the spring of 2022, and the freight rates for the US line may increase by another 25%.
Sea-Intelligence's research report pointed out that the current US retail industry inventory is still at a historical low, and the relative inventory level has been the lowest in 28 years. This is undoubtedly good news for the shipping company. As long as the sales situation is normal, the US retail industry needs to be in Continue to replenish inventory in the next few months.
Executives of CH Robinson, the world's leading third-party logistics service provider, pointed out that global road, sea and air cargo congestion is likely to continue into next year and continue to increase transportation costs.
Although there is still room for increase in freight rates, the various operating costs of container shipping companies are also increasing significantly. Port congestion has reduced ship turnover by 20% to 30%, and container ship rents have soared, which has doubled in the past year. In addition, the price of marine fuel oil has increased by 60% since November last year, and the difficulty in crew dispatch caused by the epidemic has also increased labor costs by about 20%.
Consolidation company believes that starting from May this year, the long-term freight rate of the western US route has started from US$3,000, which is several times higher than that of last year’s US$1,400. Therefore, as long as the freight rates of the European and Southeast Asian routes are stable, the company’s profit in the second quarter may be The first quarter is equivalent. If it is a consolidator that starts to substantially increase US flights in mid-March, there is still a chance that the second quarter will make more profits than the first quarter.
For most of 2020, the Port of Los Angeles has been struggling to deal with the problem of container surplus. Now that there has been a dramatic turning point, the Port of Los Angeles has also experienced a shortage of containers.
According to the latest statistics from Container xChange, a professional organization in the container monitoring field, the Container Availability Index for 40-foot containers in the Port of Los Angeles has dropped to 0.29.
Container xChange’s marketing director explained: “In the 49th week of 2020, the port’s availability index value for 20-foot containers and 40-foot containers plummeted to 0.27. Compared with the average index from week 1 to week 8 of 2020, these two Both containers dropped by 57%."
It is understood that when the container availability index is 0.5, it represents market balance. If it is less than 0.5, it represents a shortage of containers.
This means that the Port of Los Angeles has a serious shortage of containers.
In the previous Port of Los Angeles, due to the large increase in import volume and the epidemic factor, the port was congested on a large scale, and the efficiency of container turnover was very slow. At the peak, 10,000-15,000 containers were stranded at the terminal, and normal operations were severely affected.
According to a research report jointly issued by Container xChange and FraunhoferCML, a maritime logistics research organization, in the third quarter of 2020, there will be approximately 1.5 million containers in the United States with a turnover time of more than 115 days, while the normal average time should be less than 80 days.
Previously, due to the large backlog of containers in the Port of Los Angeles affecting the supply chain, liner companies conducted large-scale empty container deployment to ensure the normal operation of trans-Pacific routes.
As empty containers continue to be shipped back to the Asian market, the situation at the Port of Los Angeles has undergone a dramatic turn.
The industry also analyzes that the current shortage of containers in the Port of Los Angeles is related to the serious port congestion, the imbalance of market supply and demand, and the labor shortage caused by the outbreak of the Los Angeles Port.
Container xChange CEO Johannes Schlingmeier previously stated that since the summer of 2020, the U.S. container transportation supply chain has been under pressure, and the Port of Los Angeles is facing labor shortages caused by the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Lars Jensen, CEO of Sea Intelligence, an industry consulting firm, believes: "The main reason for the lack of containers is port congestion."
Regarding when the container shortage will be resolved, Container xChange predicts: "In the next few weeks, as every link in the trans-Pacific route supply chain will face tremendous pressure, container supply will fluctuate further."
Nerijus Poskus, vice president of shipping at Flexport in the United States, believes that the shortage of containers may improve in the second half of 2021.
Lars Jensen said that the lack of containers in the Port of Los Angeles should be resolved before the summer of 2021.
He further explained: "After the international financial crisis in 2008, we also experienced a shortage of containers. The shortage of containers in 2010 took about 3 months from the appearance to the resolution. If we put it now Under the same background, it means that the current lack of containers in the Port of Los Angeles may also be resolved soon."
Entering 2021, the imbalance between supply and demand in the container shipping market has still not been resolved, and the persistently high container shipping rate is becoming a major threat to the global economic outlook this year.
The shortage of containers is difficult to alleviate, and the freight rates of various routes remain high
Affected by the epidemic and the peak shipments before the Spring Festival, the volume of goods on the European and North American routes remained high, the port congestion, and the lack of containers made container turnover difficult, and the imbalance of supply and demand in the container shipping market has not been effectively alleviated. The freight rates of all routes around the world have remained high.
Recently, due to the epidemic situation, the port congestion has caused the average space utilization rate of container ships from Shanghai Port to Europe to continue to be fully loaded. Most ships maintain the original freight rates, and only the spot market booking prices have dropped slightly. According to statistics from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the European basic port market on January 15 was 4,413 USD/TEU, down 0.9% from the previous period; the freight rate for Shanghai exports to the Mediterranean basic port market (sea freight) And shipping surcharge) is 4296 US dollars/TEU, the same as the previous period.
The North American route also has bottlenecks in container transportation. The average space utilization rate of ships from Shanghai Port to the East and West US routes is nearly full. The freight rates of the routes are stable, and the spot market booking prices have increased slightly. On January 15th, the freight rates (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for Shanghai exports to the basic ports of the West and East US ports were 4,054 US dollars/FEU and 4,800 US dollars/FEU, respectively. The West US routes rose slightly by 0.9% and the US East routes rose 1.1%. .
The South American epidemic is severe, the import demand is large, and the transportation demand is high. Consolidation companies are increasing overtime shipping schedules to ease the shortage of capacity. The average space utilization of ships on the Shanghai Port to South America route is over 95%, and most of the flights are fully loaded. Some shipping companies have increased booking prices, and the spot market freight rates have risen slightly. On January 15th, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharge) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port market in South America was 8907 US dollars/TEU, up 3.2% from the previous period.
In Asia, the two major port congestion problems in Singapore and Malaysia, Port Klang are the most serious. Many European or Middle Eastern routes skipped these two ports and did not call. Therefore, freight forwarders had to ship customers to Singapore or Port Klang. The cargoes of South Korea will be imported and exported from the neighboring Johor Port. It is estimated that Singapore, Port Klang and Ho Chi Minh City may rise before the Spring Festival holiday on the Southeast Asian route.
At present, there is no news about the increase of freight rates on the routes of Europe and Southeast Asia. However, because of the obvious shortage of space, the purchase fee for the US route remains high. The purchase fee for the US Eastern route was increased to US$4,000/FEU in mid-January, but so far there has been a purchase fee of US$6000/FEU. The purchase fee has reached US$2500. In addition, the port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach have recently reported that hundreds of dockers have been diagnosed. The multi-billion dollar logistics economy of the two ports may be severely slowed down. The situation is even more unoptimistic.
Consolidation costs have risen several times, and the global economy may be profoundly affected
Most people in the industry believe that the problem of imbalance between supply and demand in the container shipping market will continue at least until the first quarter of this year. Nerijus Poskus, deputy general manager of Flexport, a San Francisco freight and customs brokerage company, estimates that the current global container gap has reached 500,000, which is almost equivalent to the world’s 25 largest vessels. Compared with last year, the loading capacity of 20,000 boxes of ships may increase the pressure on shipping costs this year.
Experts pointed out that it is expected that a large number of empty containers in Europe and the United States will be shipped back one to three months after the Spring Festival in April and May. The shortage of containers is expected to be alleviated, but the specifics are still difficult to say. In the follow-up, the impact of the lack of containers can be judged by three major signals: retail inventory, global ship on-time rate, and the latest container ship supply and demand. If the retail inventory level remains at a low level, it indicates that demand is still strong; if the ship on-time rate starts to rise from a low point, it means that the port congestion has been eased.
According to Alphaliner’s latest estimates in December last year, the global container loading and unloading volume this year has increased by 3.5% higher than last year; the capacity supply has increased by 3.9% annually, and the gap between supply and demand has narrowed, which shows the oversupply of the container shipping market in the past decade The phenomenon has been reversed. Although this year seems to be a year of healthy supply and demand, if the epidemic breaks out again, the market will be full of uncertainties.
Strange phenomena are frequent under the epidemic. Although the global economy is still severely hit by the epidemic, the container shipping industry has experienced the most severe price increase in history, and the shortage of supply has intensified the upward trend of container freight rates. Comprehensive data shows that the current freight rates of popular routes such as the European and American routes have increased by several times. The Australian routes have increased substantially by nearly 9 times, and the European routes have also soared by more than 5 times, even for Southeast Asian routes. Prices have also risen, and have increased more than four times since the end of last year.
Some manufacturers frankly said that they can no longer afford the current level of freight rates, and it is even more difficult to pass on the additional costs caused by the soaring freight rates to customers. The goods that were supposed to be delivered in the fourth quarter of last year have not yet been able to ship due to lack of containers and no flags. However, the warehouse can no longer accommodate the piles of goods. Some European countries even bid 8,000 euros (about 63,000 yuan). No usable container can be found. This is a situation that has not been seen in the past few decades.
Obviously, the soaring freight rate caused by the imbalance of supply and demand has affected the operation level from the supply chain level. The company is forced to reduce production or increase inventory pressure, which affects cash flow, and even affects the entire industrial chain because of the reduction in orders. The demand side. Consumers and companies have to bear the increased cost of shipping freight, which may have a longer impact on the economy than the problem of "missing containers".
Container xChange said that the shortage of container equipment that has lasted for several months is expected to end because the container availability index (CAx) is undergoing positive changes.
According to Container xChange analysis, the Chinese New Year may become a turning point , with the 20-foot and 40-foot dry cargo index increasing to 0.34 and 0.37 respectively, indicating that the availability of empty containers is much higher than last month. CAx data comes from millions of containers tracked by Container xChange. Container xChange CEO Johannes Schlingmeier said: “An index of 0.5 indicates market balance, and a value below 0.5 indicates a shortage of containers.” Container xChange pointed out that although the latest data in January was well below 0.5, indicating that there is still a shortage of container equipment, but 20 feet and The 40-foot container data has begun to approach the normal container shortage level in China's main export markets.
David Amezquita, the company's director of data, said:
Compared with December 2020, the availability of 20-foot containers in January 2021 has increased by 37.5%, and the availability of 40-foot containers has increased by 200%, which is a positive trend.
Data from xChange shows that in the past few months, there has been an extreme shortage of containers across China. In Shanghai, which has always been in short supply, the index reached a record low in December 2020, of which the 40-foot container availability index was only 0.13. The company said that as China's container manufacturing plants are running at full capacity to expand production capacity, coupled with the shipping company's efforts to transport empty containers back to China, the Chinese New Year may become an important turning point.
With the substantial increase in container supply, Shanghai Port's container availability index is returning to normal levels. Other ports in China are also undergoing positive changes. Taking Qingdao Port as an example, the availability index of a 20-foot container even reached 0.5. The container availability index of other major Asian hub ports such as Singapore Port, Navassiwa Port and Port Klang also showed the same trend. Compared with December 2020, the availability index of standard containers at the Port of Singapore in January 2021 has increased by 58%, Port Nawahiwa has increased by 35%, and Port Klang has increased by 54%.
There are signs that the container availability index will remain stable in the coming weeks. Until mid-February, the availability of 20-foot boxes will stabilize at around 0.35, and the availability of 40-foot boxes will stabilize at around 0.38.
In the past two months, the cost of transporting goods from China to Europe has more than quadrupled, hitting a record high, due to the pandemic disrupting global trade and the shortage of empty containers.
Data from shippers and importers show that the freight for transporting a 40-foot container from Asia to Northern Europe has risen from approximately US$2,000 in November last year to more than US$9,000.
Lars Jensen, CEO of maritime consulting company SeaIntelligence, said that the reason for the increase in freight rates is the market's competition for limited resources-containers.
In the first half of 2020, due to a sudden slowdown in global trade due to the epidemic blockade, shipping companies have suspended large-scale shipping and thousands of empty containers are stranded in Europe and the United States. In the second half of the year, when Western countries' demand for Asian-made goods rebounded, competition among shippers for available containers pushed up freight rates.
John Butler, Chairman of the World Shipping Council, said, "The freight volume has dropped from a sharp decline to soaring to the highest level in history, and the effective handling capacity of the terminal has exceeded the upper limit."
He added that the congestion in the port has caused freight rates to rise, and shipping companies charge additional fees to compensate for the longer waiting time.
British freight forwarding company Edge Worldwide CEO Philip Edge said that some shipping companies charge US$12,000 per container, much higher than the US$2,000 in October last year.
The British Household Electrical Appliance Manufacturers Association stated in a statement, “According to member companies’ disclosures, shipping costs have increased by more than 300% since 2020. Especially for some commodities, the increase in shipping costs has exceeded the net increase Profit. Therefore, these costs will have to be passed on to the end user."
The owner of a leisure goods importer in Manchester said that the shortage of containers is having a “huge impact” on his business, and some orders placed in November are still waiting to be shipped. "The question is, is it to pay $12,000 now and pass the cost on to the customer, or to wait at the risk of exhausting inventory?"
Economists say that such interruptions and delays are beginning to affect global supply chains. Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, said that "transportation pressure is accumulating and may increase further."
A recent survey by IHS Markit found that in December last year, the delivery time of manufacturing suppliers in the Eurozone reached the worst level since the peak of the pandemic lockdown in April. Shipping delays and general commodity shortages were "widely mentioned" by suppliers. .
The companies surveyed stated that they are consuming inventory of raw materials and semi-finished products, resulting in a decline in inventory.
Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, said that "supply shortages and rising freight rates may slightly curb trade growth."
On the occasion of the Chinese New Year in February, the Asian manufacturing industry slowed down. Shipping companies hope to use this time to solve the problem of increasing backlog orders, which will temporarily cool freight rates.
However, BIMCO chief shipping analyst Peter Sand said that the shortage of containers may continue for a long time in 2021. Although the shipping company has ordered new containers, in his opinion, such a move is "too small and too late."
Lars Jensen also believes that although freight rates may drop slightly, "there are still a lot of goods waiting to be transported."
John Butler pointed out that only when epidemic-related restrictions are reduced and people have more diverse service choices, the pressure on the maritime supply chain can be alleviated, but no one can say when it can be improved.
Maritime shipping companies lack box What does it mean? Chinese exports to Europe more than is light cargo, the widespread use of large container loaded cabinet, a cabinet hard situation as more and more obvious. After the peak season of foreign trade, the export of goods soared, and the original inventory of empty boxes could not meet the requirements of the booker, resulting in a shortage of goods and a shortage of boxes.
How should shippers correct the shortage of containers in shipping companies?
1. The foreign trade factory should prepare the goods quickly, book the space in advance as much as possible, and notify the freight forwarder or the car dealer as soon as possible after receiving the notice of the release , so that you can know which yard to pick up the container and when to put it Make a response plan in advance for information such as whether the cabinet is lacking, whether the cabinet is picked up from another place.
2. In case of shortage of cabinets, you can apply for the designated cabinet with the shipping company in advance, that is, book the cabinet number when booking. After the goods are ready, go to the storage yard to pick up the cabinet of the container number for loading, but the designated cabinet needs to pay the shipping company's designated operating fee.
3. The storage yard can be proved by the same reason.
4. If there are no cabinets to pick up, check a few more storage yards. For cabinets that are slightly damaged in the storage yard, spend some money on the storage yard and ask them to repair and refresh them. You can also mention the cabinets.
What causes the lack of containers in shipping companies? Taijie to help you understand the lack of containers in foreign trade
5. When booking the space, confirm with the shipping company whether there is a shortage of containers. If there is a shortage of containers, you can change to another shipping company to book.
6. If the designated shipping company cannot be replaced, measure the quantity and volume of the cargo to see if it can be replaced by other container types. Or use a freeze-drying cabinet (NOR).
7. Normally maintain the relationship between the customers, and discuss and settle any problems.
What causes the lack of containers in shipping companies? Taijie helps you understand the lack of containers in foreign trade
Shenzhen Taijie kindly reminds you to confirm with the shipping company whether there is a shortage of containers when booking. Let's talk about why the box is missing?
We all know that China is a country with a trade surplus. Imports and exports are unbalanced. This leads to fewer imported containers and more exported containers. Container ships often burst out and enter half-cabins. If the shipping company fails to arrange the return of the backlog of empty containers in time, there will be fewer mobile containers and boxes. Due to the bankruptcy of a small number of shipping companies, or the serious damage to the cabinets of some shipping companies, some of the cabinets that should be used for mobile were once crushed and unusable. The peak season effect has exploded, causing the export of goods to soar. The amount of empty containers originally planned to be adjusted and stored cannot meet the requirements of the booker, resulting in short supply and shortage of containers.
With the implementation of the National One Belt One Road policy and the convening of the BRIC Conference, the overall shipping market demand has risen, the demand is greater than expected, the industry is picking up rapidly, and the supply of boxes is in short supply. The adjustment of the box has a certain lag, and it will take some time to solve it . The foreign environment is severe. Workers' strikes, port congestion, hurricanes, and ship schedule delays have caused the slow return of empty containers. If the container management department cannot respond in time, there will be extreme shortages of containers if the dispatch is not good. In addition, in order to maintain the relationship with major customers, shipping companies will reserve boxes for VIP customers. In the case of shortage of boxes, some ordinary customers cannot pick them up.
After the freight rate in the trans-Pacific market has remained stable for a period of time, it has recently started a rising mode.
According to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (Freightos Baltic Daily Index), on December 28, 2020, the freight rate of the Asia-US West Coast route reached US$4,189/FEU, a record high, an increase of 8% from December 25, which is the year of 2019. 3 times over the same period.
At the same time, the freight rate of the Asia-US East Coast route also reached an astonishing US$5397/FEU, a 9% increase from December 25 and twice the rate of the same period in 2019.
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 25, 2020, the freight rates (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port markets of the West and the East of the United States were 4,080 USD/FEU and 4,876 USD/FEU, respectively. The US West route rose 4.6% from the previous week.
Analysts of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to the West and East U.S. routes maintained at a level close to full load. However, the U.S. epidemic has blocked the turnover of containers, and a large number of containers are stranded at the local terminal. The congestion of the port is increasing, and the shortage of containers has not been alleviated.
In addition, a number of shipping companies including CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen Shipping, HMM, ONE, Yangming Shipping, and Star Shipping have announced that they will start on the trans-Pacific route from January 1, 2021. , Charge a comprehensive rate increase surcharge (GRI) ranging from US$1,000 to US$1,200/FEU.
The market predicts that the upward trend of freight rates will continue until January 2021.
In contrast to the fast-growing transportation demand, after a fully loaded ship arrived at the US West Port, it faced the dilemma of nowhere to stop.
According to a report released by the Marine Exchange of Southern California on December 28, 2020, a total of 24 container ships are anchored in San Pedro Bay, and another 5 ships are about to arrive.
According to the report, the local conventional anchorages are full of ships, and some emergency anchorages have also been occupied.
Marine Traffic uses an automatic identification system to draw a map that shows the extent of the accumulation of container ships in San Pedro Bay, which has deteriorated in recent weeks.
According to statistics, 26 additional ships called at the Port of Los Angeles in November and 31 ships in December. A port manager said that it is expected that in January 2021, more additional ships will call.
The loading and unloading capacity of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has already faced serious shortages. The Port of Los Angeles will import 116,500 TEU containers this week, and it is expected to increase significantly to 150,000 TEU per week by January 2021.
The continuous increase in freight rates and the severe congestion at the US West Port have caused shippers’ costs to hit unprecedented highs, and shippers have to reassess their transportation cost budgets for 2021.
The shipping industry in 2020 can be said to be half winter and half summer.
Affected by the epidemic, China's exports declined in the first half of the year, and the shipping industry was cold and "overwintering" ahead of schedule. In the second half of the year, the neglected shipping industry directly entered the "midsummer." As the epidemic situation in China stabilizes and the economy recovers steadily, goods from all countries are transferred from Chinese ports. For a time, China's shipping industry is showing a busy scene.
“It’s too difficult to order containers now!” A reporter from the Securities Daily could see vehicles transporting containers coming and going at the Shanghai port. A foreign trade official who did not want to be named told the reporter: “At present, I want to order a container. The price can be said to be one price per day. Not only that, even if the container is booked, I still have to worry about the availability of the cabin."
"Shanghai SIPG, Ningbo, and Shenzhen are all major ports in the world. In 2018 and 2019, the container throughput of Shanghai Port was ranked first. Recently, the container shipping market is very hot, and many boxes cannot be returned after they go out." People from listed companies commented on the reporter of "Securities Daily".
In this regard, Liu Wang, chairman of Shanghai Tianhui International Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters: “The price of container transportation has been rising. Because shipping companies have fewer ships, they often suspend voyages, and the lack of boxes is common, even if the price increases. It cannot fundamentally solve the problem of missing boxes."
• One price a day, "boxes" are crazy
"The most exaggerated time in the past 10 years." Speaking of the current shipping industry, Ms. Xie, who is engaged in the foreign trade industry, told a reporter from the Securities Daily. Ms. Xie is mainly responsible for the freight of Guangzhou Nansha Port and Shenzhen Port. She told reporters that taking a 40-foot container as an example, the highest sea freight to the Middle East at this time last year was about US$3,000. It costs almost US$5,000 now. Last year, it was US$2,800 to US$3,200 to Europe, and now it is US$6,000 to US$7,000. This year, the freight is almost twice the same period last year.
By the end of the year, the lack of positions became a true portrayal of the operation industry.
“Nowadays, there is a shortage of containers and high freight rates. The supply exceeds demand. During the epidemic, there was a large backlog of foreign containers that could not be arranged for delivery, and no one carried the goods. Almost all customers were looting containers. Under current market conditions, there are few freight forwarders. When looking for new customers, they are basically priority old customers.” Ms. Xie told reporters that the new year is approaching, and major suppliers are fully shipping. It is expected that the shortage of containers will continue.
"First of all you have to have a position, then you have to line up the truck to get the container, and finally you have to wait for the port to open before you can enter the port. Every day, you have to go through five hurdles, and you have to face customer soul torture. It's late, can't you figure it out?" A shipping forwarder complained about the tightness of the current export containers.
Liu Wang revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many forwarders who have no boxes sometimes look for scalpers. Now forwarders are looting positions. The positions have to be booked in advance. Many people robbed and reselled them. In the past, they did not lose their shipping fees. Now that the shipping companies are recovering their losses, the shipping companies are about to usher in a wave of market conditions this year. After the merger and reorganization last year, it is estimated that all the money lost in the past will be made back this year."
Liu Wang said: “In the past Christmas and the Spring Festival, there will be a wave of liquidation market, this year is particularly fierce because of the epidemic. South American container boxes were the lowest in history at 50 US dollars a small container, and now basically it costs more than 5,000 US dollars, and a large box 10,000. U.S. dollars, if $5,000 this week is too expensive for you, you may not be able to order $6,000 next week, basically one price a week."
In fact, the current container price has been upgraded to a daily basis. A person in charge of an international logistics company said: “In Qingdao Port, the price of a second-hand 40-foot container in previous years was about US$2,000. On November 27 this year, the price rose to US$2,850; by November 30, the price of a second-hand container rose to US$3,200. ; On December 3, it rose to 3,400 US dollars again, almost one day."
According to data from the freight benchmark company Xeneta, the current average price of short-term market contracts in Asia and Europe for three months or less is 200% higher than a year ago, at $4,831 per 40 feet. But from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by an astonishing 390.5%.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings told reporters: “As the volume of goods continues to rise, the demand for export containers has greatly increased, and the domestic guarantee for container use has become tighter. However, the turnover of overseas empty containers has generally slowed due to the continuous impact of the epidemic situation in various places. Transfer back to China to meet demand."
"The whole industry is looking for boxes everywhere, and some merchants are beginning to hoard boxes to speculate on prices." In the eyes of industry insiders, the current situation of foreign trade companies being difficult to find a box is not only because of the slow operation of containers, but also because of the reduction of some routes. .
"There are few ship lines, and most of the cabinets shipped abroad can't return. This is the root cause of the skyrocketing price of the domestic container transportation market." Liu Wang explained to the reporter: "It's not that foreign cabinets are not coming back. It is the epidemic situation abroad. The impact is that the workers do not go to work and the speed of transportation is relatively slow. Now everyone is sharing the warehouse."
According to Liu Wang, the container ships now and the alliance has been formed since last year. Originally, it used its own ships to transport the goods. Now four or five shipowners or five or six companies form an alliance, and use the same ship. warehouse. "It turns out that there may be several shipping companies arranging several shifts to go to sea in a week. Once we formed an alliance, the shifts decreased in a week. This started last year. Now shipping companies often stop once a week, which objectively leads to a shortage of ships. ."
A person in charge of the Shanghai Maritime Logistics Company introduced to a reporter from the Securities Daily: "At present, the proportion of import and export trade by sea is imbalanced. There are few boxes coming in and many boxes going out . In addition, China has quickly prevented and controlled the epidemic, and overseas orders have continued to surge. , Increasing the pressure on shipping. Overseas, affected by the epidemic, the operation cycle of containers shipped out due to business environment problems has been lengthened, the arrival process has increased, and the operation efficiency has slowed and lengthened the circulation cycle. Due to the early outbreak of the epidemic, major shipping The company has reduced many routes, resulting in uneven distribution of global container volumes."
The industry believes that with the increase in market demand, the current effective capacity is obviously insufficient.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO Shipping Holdings revealed to the reporter: "As the global epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, global trade has been rapidly repaired since the third quarter of this year, and the demand in the container shipping market has recovered beyond expectations. In order to meet the growth of transportation demand, market capacity has gradually returned to normal. , The idle capacity has dropped rapidly from the record high of more than 2.7 million TEU (international standard unit units) in May this year. At present , there is no airworthy effective capacity to rent in the market. "
In the context of uneven global container deployment, container prices on different routes have also risen at different rates.
"Since November, the price of the U.S. line has increased by about four times compared with the beginning of the year, and the European line has risen to the highest price last year. From the perspective of the distribution of China’s export routes, the U.S. container accounts for 25%, Europe accounts for 25%, and Southeast Asia , Northeast Asia adds up to 50%, the US route is now hard to find a box is the norm, followed by the European route, freight is also very tight. The price of Malaysia route in Southeast Asia has also doubled recently." The person in charge of the aforementioned logistics company added.
Facing the increase in demand for containers, the above-mentioned relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings stated: “The company will strengthen scientific forecasts for container use, actively coordinate dual-brand superior resources, and make every effort to guarantee the use of containers during peak seasons. On the one hand, internally tap the potential and accelerate overseas heavy container Demolition speed, increase empty container callback domestic and Far East efforts to promote container turnover; on the other hand, close communication with container manufacturers and container leasing companies to seek more container sources. Through two-pronged and multiple measures, to guarantee domestic container use Provide effective assistance and try our best to meet the shipping needs of customers."
In order to meet the development needs of the container market, SIPG has launched a number of effective measures to promote container volume growth in response to the market. At the beginning of this year, the Group launched seven special measures for container growth, through the implementation of preferential international transit loading and unloading fees, extension of the international transit container storage exemption period, and sea-rail intermodal customs clearance container preferential projects. In the first half of the year, the Group established three major container areas: Yangshan, Outer Harbor, and Domestic Trade, striving to achieve overall planning and agglomeration effects.
According to SIPG’s official announcement, in October, each terminal of Shanghai Port set a new record. The monthly throughput of Shengdong Company exceeded 820,000 TEUs for the first time. Among them, 33068 TEUs and 12899.75 TEUs were updated on October 25. Class record; Guandong Company broke through 720,000 TEU, setting a new record again.
• How long can the "shortage of containers" last? What is the future prospect of the shipping industry?
"The first half of the year was affected by the new crown epidemic. Ports and shipping fields did suffer a relatively large negative impact, so the first half of the year was basically a negative growth state. In the second half of the year, especially after the third quarter, normal operations resumed to a certain extent, plus China The epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, and most of the economic activities have been resumed first. Therefore, compared with the first half of the year, there is indeed a big sign of a bottoming out." said Liu Dian, a research assistant at the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China.
In the first two months of this year, my country's foreign trade imports and exports dropped significantly. According to China Customs data, from January to February 2020, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.
Although the current domestic epidemic situation is under control, the global epidemic is breaking out, and exports are still under certain impact.
It can be said that in the first half of this year, people in the shipping industry were mainly pessimistic about my country's export prospects. In the second half of the year, the industry was generally optimistic about the future development of the shipping industry.
Insiders analyzed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that this round of container freight price increases began in the middle of this year. At that time, after the domestic epidemic was brought under control, foreign countries were greatly affected by the epidemic, and many overseas orders were transferred to the domestic market. When shipping from China, the shipping price began to rise. According to Liu Wang's prediction, this round of price increases will continue until the first quarter of next year.
An unnamed person in charge of maritime logistics said: "As the epidemic stabilizes, this hot market will continue into the first half of next year, or even longer."
"This wave of increase in container shipping prices has driven the adjustment of the entire foreign trade sector, breaking the laws of the past decades in the industry. Not only ocean freight, air freight and land transportation have different levels of influence and changes. The epidemic has accelerated the entire large trade sector. The consolidation and adjustment of the shipping sector will gradually move towards intensive development. Shipping companies have become monopolistic after years of integration and mergers. The aviation sector and the land transport sector are also rapidly integrated, and a new chapter will emerge in the future foreign trade field." People say so.
According to Huang Tianhua, chairman of the China Container Industry Association and vice president of CIMC, predicted that the shortage of containers may continue for about six months . He said: "We have monitored that if there are 500,000 new containers in China normally, they are in a completely healthy state if they are ready for use in the docks or ports, but the current tighter inventory is about 300,000 new containers. I expect it to be possible. In the next three months to six months, this slightly tense balance will continue. This is probably a trend in the current industry."
Although the industry is generally optimistic about the shipping industry, Liu Dian believes that the total global trade volume in 2020 will still drop a certain percentage from the previous year, but from the perspective of the shipping industry, it will definitely be from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. There will be a better market.
Liu Dian said: “Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the uncertainties slowed down in the second half of the year, and the overall trend showed a relatively large rebound. Therefore, from a macro perspective, global international trade has rebounded to a certain extent. China is the first to resume the rebound led by the next."
" At present, the shipping industry is mainly affected by three factors :
Di Yi factor is that the global economy is expected to have a recovery, so after the third quarter, international trade has been warmer, led the field of shipping industry as a whole for the better, whether it is from container or just have some trade from the sea to pick up case .
The second factor is that with the signing of the RCEP agreement, a series of regional economic integration cooperation relations in East Asia and Southeast Asia will improve, which will benefit the import and export trade of China and related countries.
The third factor is that although the epidemic has not been eliminated on a global scale, all countries are in short supply, such as medical supplies, production supplies, and living supplies. China is now the world's largest trade surplus country. Under such circumstances, China's export trade, including part of its import trade, will also get a relatively large rebound in demand, and at the same time promote the rise of a series of shipping-related industry indexes in related fields, including the container shipping index. "Liu Dian said.
my country is the largest producer, exporter and consumer of toys. At the beginning of this year, affected by the epidemic, Guangdong toy companies lost a large number of foreign orders. The pressure on the industry was huge. Since the second half of the year, the entire industry has continued to pick up, and some companies even have "exports". The situation of “explosive orders”.
But the good and the bad are mixed. Due to the shortage of containers, a large backlog of goods has caused difficulties in delivery. Thousands of containers filled with toys ordered by overseas toy retailers before Christmas are still stuck in ports!
Hot toy export manufacturers' orders will be scheduled until March next year
In a building block factory, the person in charge told reporters that under the epidemic this year, their sales have not fallen but increased. The 5000 square meter factory has been transformed into fully automated production. In the past, more than 200 workers were required to work at the same time, but now they have replaced it. 32 robots work overtime 24 hours a day .
In this toy company in Chenghai District, Shantou City, Guangdong, the reporter saw a busy scene on the production line. The person in charge said that the epidemic did have some impact on them at the beginning of the year, but since April and May, the order volume began to rise. At present, they are running at full power and producing 24 hours a day, but they still cannot meet the needs of overseas customers, and some products are "out of stock".
The person in charge of another toy company that mainly sells overseas said that they did not anticipate the rapid recovery of orders. Due to the shortage of manpower, this year's orders could not be delivered in time for the year before, and new orders for next year are still being found. .
According to data provided by the China Toys and Baby Products Association, due to the impact of the epidemic, the monthly export growth rate of Chinese traditional toys was negative from January to June this year. Starting from July, the monthly export growth rate has turned negative to positive, reaching 21.1%, exports from January to October reached 26.36 billion US dollars, and the cumulative growth rate turned negative to positive, reaching 1.4%. In November, it maintained sustained growth, with exports of 3.89 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 50.8% year-on-year, the largest single-month increase since this year.
Busy production and delivery toy manufacturers are mixed
Toy exports continued to rise, and toy factories received soft orders. At the same time, manufacturers had new troubles.
The reporter saw in a toy factory in Dongguan, Guangdong that there were many products to be shipped stacked in the factory, and only one truck was being loaded. The person in charge said that their customers are mainly large supermarkets and brand toy factories in Europe and the United States. They had to load 30 or 40 cars a day during the peak period. However, the current shortage of containers and the continuous increase in order volume, they are busy with production and worry about delivery. .
Guangdong has a large number of toy companies, with production capacity accounting for more than 70% of the country. The reporter found during a visit to many toy factories in Guangdong that the current export-oriented companies have encountered a shortage of containers. "Lack of containers" is the most common discussion among toy owners. topic. Yuan Moumou is the warehouse supervisor of a toy factory. When the reporter followed him to the warehouse, he found that a large amount of inventory was waiting to be shipped, and even the products produced in April had not been shipped.
The reporter learned during the interview that the current foreign trade toy factories are experiencing varying degrees of product backlog, and the uncertainty of overseas epidemics has slowed the circulation cycle of containers. The Jumbo Group, the largest toy retailer in Greece, said recently that due to the new crown epidemic, thousands of containers full of toys ordered by them in the months before Christmas are still stranded in the port.
Significant increase in export orders from auto parts factories! Orders skyrocketed by 100%, and orders are scheduled until April next year!
Beginning in September this year, the export value of auto parts has reached a new high for three consecutive months. In November, the export of auto parts increased by 41.9% year-on-year. According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in November this year, the export value of auto parts was 5.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.8% month-on-month and 41.9% year-on-year.
The export orders of auto parts factories have increased greatly, and the full production capacity is too late to ship! A person in charge of a wheel production plant in Jinhua, Zhejiang said that all production lines of the plant are operating at full capacity. Due to the substantial increase in export orders this year, one plant is still too busy to produce. Starting from the second half of the year, export orders have grown relatively fast. In the third quarter, compared with the same period last year, it increased by about 50%. In the fourth quarter, we increased by about 100%.
In another factory in Taizhou, Zhejiang that produces automobile shock absorbers, workers are working overtime and production is busy. The person in charge of the company told reporters that the orders received so far have been scheduled to April next year. In the early stage of the epidemic, in March, April and May, our orders were reduced by a certain percentage compared to 2019. Since July, the proportion of orders received has increased by nearly 126%. After August and September, it has increased by about 50% every month.
During the interview, container trucks continued to come to the factory to pick up goods. There were many products waiting to be shipped on both sides of the roads of the factory. The warehouse was also full. Due to the large number of orders this year and the shortage of export containers, many products have not had time to ship.
Yang Fudong, Special Assistant to the Secretary-General of the After-sales Parts Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that more than 70% of China's auto parts exports are used in the independent after-sales market of automobiles. The automotive after-sales market has grown very fast in recent years. The increase in car ownership and the increase in car service life will drive the demand for auto parts. The longer the service life of the car, the faster the replacement frequency of auto parts.
