If shippers and logistics companies hope that the ultra-high shipping container prices will fall in the New Year, then they may be disappointed.
Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, revealed at a press conference that global logistics giants and container liner companies expect that the chaotic market, lack of berths, and container shortages, etc., will still be available by 2021. Will last for a while.
In addition, Tim Scharwath, CEO of freight forwarding giant DHL Global Freight Forwarding, also attended the meeting. What the two CEOs have in common is that they agree that 2020 is characterized by great unpredictability, such as promising customers whether their goods will reach their destinations on time, which is very unpredictable.
As time goes by and the year is coming to an end, shippers have to pay more and more freight to ship the goods. This development is largely due to the sharp increase in demand month by month since July. For example, it is not uncommon to have to pay US$5,000 for shipping containers from Hong Kong to New York.
▍It will not stabilize until the second half of 2021
The two executives agreed that after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia this spring, the very special environment has caused a historic imbalance between supply and demand. They also believe that the shipping market will not stabilize for the time being.
Scharwath said: "As for shipping, I think we must enter the second half of 2021 before we see the market stabilize again. The first quarter will definitely be affected, and so will the second quarter."
"We will have to wait and see what happens, because everything is difficult to predict. As a large company, we usually make plans for 3 to 5 years. Now, we are making plans for 3 months."
Inadequate ship capacity and insufficient containers have serious consequences for the industry’s supply chain. In addition to customer dishonesty and record high freight rates, a recent survey conducted by Sea-Intelligence shows that only half of the ships can reach their destinations on time .
▍Shipping companies strengthen management and control
Mainly affected by the new crown epidemic, container shipping companies’ performance in the second quarter was weak, but their profits have soared to record levels since the summer. However, the quality of service is lacking, and container shipping companies have been stating for months that these conditions are beyond the scope that they can change.
On the one hand, they do not have more ships to deploy, on the other hand, they cannot redistribute the containers to the required ports. In addition to other reasons, customers do not return the goods.
Currently, Asia in particular is suffering from a shortage of containers because many containers are in the United States. According to a Bloomberg report, it may also be because of port congestion that these containers cannot be unloaded at US ports. This is the case with 20 container ships currently near the Port of Long Beach.
Therefore, at the beginning of December, CMA CGM, Maersk and ONE had to refuse to leave the booking outside of Asia, the reason is very simple, because there is no extra space on board.
Hapag-Lloyd, led by Habben Jansen, also benefited from the increase in freight rates in recent months. Therefore, the shipping company has twice raised its full-year 2020 profit forecast, and the company currently expects its operating results to exceed US$2.7 billion.
However, the CEO said that it is usually because of an oversupply of ships, and 10 years after the industry has lost billions of dollars, it is time for container shipping companies to start making money.
▍Strong performance in the second quarter of next year
Until recently, shipping companies and container manufacturers also predicted that the current shortage of containers will be resolved after the Chinese New Year in February, which will restore the market to a more normal state. But Habben Jansen no longer believes this prediction is correct.
"This year’s development is beyond everyone’s expectations. Because of the introduction of economic stimulus measures, people still have money on hand, and most of the money has been spent on container cargo. Many signs indicate that the strong market we see after the Spring Festival has passed. It will appear and will continue into the second quarter."
Habben Jansen pointed out that the current market congestion will take some time to resolve.
At present, many Asian ports are facing a serious shortage of containers. Most of the containers are stranded in destination ports in Europe and the United States, making it difficult to return as soon as possible. In the limited number of return containers, new problems have emerged.
South Korea’s Busan Port Authority (BPA) recently stated that empty containers returned to the port from overseas have not been cleaned and inspected as they should .
In response, local truck drivers complained that the shipping company neglected the inspection, cleaning and maintenance of the containers, and instead shifted the responsibility of maintaining the containers to them.
It is understood that from November 16 to 24 this year, BPA collected 30,792 samples of empty containers from 9 container terminals in Busan Port for inspection. The results showed that the condition of 52% of empty containers is not ideal .
BPA stated that many containers need to be cleaned again . In addition, insects such as cockroaches and spiders were also found in some containers .
More importantly, 59% of all return empty containers have defects . The defect rate of empty containers returned to the port by Korean domestic importers was 47.2%.
"This is because the shipping company did not conduct proper inspections before shipping containers to Busan Port." BPA said.
It is understood that since 2018, with the assistance of local fisheries departments, animal and plant quarantine agencies and customs, BPA has been paying close attention to the cleaning and damage of containers and conducting related investigations.
Investigations have shown that in many cases, the exterior or interior of the container is obviously damaged, and garbage is deposited. About 1.2% of containers had to be replaced because they could not be repaired.
At present, the shortage of containers in the Asian market is still severe, while more and more containers are stranded in American ports.
Major US ports, including the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, have generally experienced equipment shortages and extended loading and unloading times. Coupled with the serious container imbalance problem in Pacific trade, a large number of imported containers are backlogged in American ports, causing terminal congestion, container turnover, and cargo transportation.
This situation has intensified, making the local port "close to complete paralysis."
Although shipping companies are also trying various ways to seek various solutions to speed up the dispatch of empty containers, according to Maersk’s estimation, many countries around the world are experiencing national blockades due to the second outbreak of the epidemic, and the shortage of empty containers is expected to remain Will continue.
The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) threatened to use all its possible powers to overturn the decision of international shipping companies to abandon the export of American agricultural products and relocate empty containers instead.
The shortage of containers and market forces have caused some shipping companies to cut the container quotas of traditional American exporters to alleviate some serious problems in the supply chain. This has had a huge impact on US agricultural exports. Reports say that some cargo owners’ quotas have been reduced from 300 containers per month to three.
Under the vigorous lobbying of the U.S. Agricultural Transportation Union and its partners, FMC announced that it would investigate these measures.
"Some shipping companies have already stated that they will no longer deploy empty containers to inland agricultural areas of the United States. Instead, they are speeding up the delivery of empty containers back to Asia." FMC Chairman Michael Khouri said at the Global Maritime Conference.
"This approach is to keep U.S. agricultural exports out of the global market. We are investigating and possible response measures, including reviewing whether the actions of these shipping companies are in full compliance with the Shipping Act, and more specifically, the Act. "Prohibited Acts" clauses in the "Prohibited Acts"," he said.
At the end of October, the shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has decided to suspend export bookings for soybeans and other agricultural products from the United States in order to return empty containers to Asia to load imported goods from the United States instead of shipping containers to the inland United States.
Earlier this month, the Special Soybean and Grain Alliance (SSGA), a US agricultural transportation organization, stated that the lack of containers and its members’ inability to load exported goods is prompting Asian customers to investigate other food buyers.
SSGA Executive Director Eric Wenberg said: "Our members have heard from Asian customers that they doubt that the United States and its agricultural exporters will continue to be reliable suppliers based on the difficulties of today's multimodal transportation."
"Marine shipping companies need to work with us to solve these transportation problems and ship our goods back to Asian ports. Otherwise, the United States has been a reputation for exporting high-quality food to foreign customers and we must take action." He added.
The container throughput of global ports continued to increase in October, with a total volume of 15.2 million TEUs that month. So far in 2020, the container throughput has reached 137.7 million TEUs, which is only 2.7% lower than in 2019.
The off-season is not "light"
The latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) shows that the traditional freight off-season in 2020 will not be "light", and the performance will exceed expectations, and the market demand will continue until the fourth quarter . In October, the trans-Pacific shipping volume dropped by 4% from September to 2 million TEUs, but it was still a quarter higher than the same period in 2019. The demand is so great that although operators have been increasing capacity, there is still a gap.
Demand on the Asia-Europe route has also recovered, although its performance is not as strong as the Pacific route. In October, the shipping volume of the Asia-Europe route was 1.4 million TEUs, an increase of 7% over 2019. However, from the perspective of the whole year, the 13.9 million TEUs so far in 2020 is still 7% lower than 2019.
Equipment gap is nearly 1 million TEU
The Asia-Europe route is currently facing the same problem as the Pacific route, that is, the shortage of container equipment and capacity keeps the freight rate at a high level. Sea-Intelligence analysts said that the problem of container shortages is very difficult. The imbalance of east-west traffic on the Pacific route has made the shortage of equipment worse . The current North American imports account for most of the global increase in shipping containers, while North American exports have Weakening. Under normal circumstances, the imbalance of east-west shipping volume will usually cause a monthly deficit of about 2.5 million TEUs in Asia. This gap is filled by empty containers from other regions . But in October 2020, this number soared to 3.4 million TEUs, which means that the equipment gap has reached nearly 1 million TEUs.
Sea intelligence believes that the lack of empty containers is the primary problem faced by shippers. However, this problem is currently difficult to solve, and there is no way to quickly mobilize 1 million additional empty containers, especially when many ports are currently facing congestion. Analysts predict that this situation will continue until at least early February 2021.
In the past few months, due to the severe shortage of available empty containers, the global supply chain has been hit, causing exporters to have a headache. However, new research shows that there is an obvious problem in the container supply chain-empty containers stay in warehouses for an average of 45 days, while in China, the average time for each idle container is more than two months.
The research project of German company FraunhoferCML and Container xChange shows that although China and the United States urgently need containers, the average residence time of empty containers in warehouses is 61-66 days, which is much higher than the global average of 45 days.
The east coast of the United States is usually the location of surplus container equipment (the 40DC container availability value was 0.7 last year), but the container availability rate dropped to 0.43, indicating that there are actually fewer containers than needed.
The researchers said that compared with the Middle East (21 days on average) and Europe (23 days on average), the high standard deviations of 85 days in North America and 129 days in Asia indicate that in many cases, containers stay in warehouses longer than average. Much more.
Container xChange is a platform that connects users and suppliers. The platform stated that the availability of containers across China is still at a record low, while the surge in shipping containers from Asia has overwhelmed US ports, and retailers are eager to put their products on the shelves.
Not only is there a serious shortage of 40-foot tall containers (hc) in the shipping market, but there is also a shortage of 40-foot standard containers, and even 20-foot containers are sometimes in short supply.
The container availability rate of 40HCs is only 0.05 CAx (container availability rate) points, compared with 0.63 in the same period last year.
Asia's container manufacturing industry is working overtime to produce, which accounts for 45% of the global container manufacturing market. China International Marine Containers, the world's largest container manufacturer, announced an increase in its orders.
The factory is stepping up container building, and container orders have been scheduled to the first quarter of next year. Even so, the demand for millions of containers has made it impossible for container manufacturing to quench its thirst. The world's three largest container leasing giants have issued a warning that the shortage of containers will continue for four months.
Chinese shippers and freight forwarders all over the world "seeking" empty containers, but where did the empty containers go? The answer is simple, it is blocked in other ports.
While the Asian port and shipping industry is desperately desperate for empty containers, although there is a shortage of shipping capacity, price increases can be used to push shipping companies to cancel suspending, refilling, and increase shipping capacity; however, a large number of containers full of cargo are seriously stranded in European and American ports and warehouses. , Unable to move.
In order to alleviate the serious imbalance in equipment, shipping companies have adopted an active strategy for exports to Europe and the United States, suspending orders, and preferring to use as many empty containers as possible to fill return ships.
In fact, in order to prevent all but the most expensive goods, European exporters to Asia are required to pay more than $5,000 per 40-foot container to ensure shipment in December. A British freight forwarder said that many shipping companies now refuse to accept export orders before mid-January. "Our customers are willing to pay such a high freight, but due to port congestion, we are still working hard to get the boxes away. Some boxes have been on the dock for more than four weeks and still don't know when they will be shipped."
At the same time, the urgently needed empty containers in Asia are scattered in warehouses across Europe, especially in the United Kingdom, where troubled ports have to restrict container delivery to already overcrowded terminals.
The current shortage of containers is a once-in-a-century problem in the history of the global supply chain, and it is basically unsolvable in the short term.
Recently, container freight has soared! The number of empty ships in the market has drastically reduced. In order to preserve space, container shipping companies have started to "grab ships" in the leasing market.
Under such circumstances, Mediterranean Shipping MSC, the world's second-largest container shipping company, even started the direct ship purchase model and purchased two container ships again. It is worth mentioning that this is the 11th ship purchased by the company in a short period of time.
Alphaliner said that the large container ships currently available are insufficient, and most shipping companies have set new records for daily rent. It is particularly noteworthy that even the classic Panamax vessel of 4,000-5,300 TEU, which has suffered "years of suffering", has now risen to an incredible level, which was unimaginable a few months ago.
Driven by strong market demand, container shipping companies have begun to find ways to mobilize all available container ships.
Industry insiders pointed out that the global container shipping market is reappearing in the situation of "a ship is hard to find and a box is hard to find". The mainstream shipping companies have booked space until late December, and it is predicted that high freight rates will continue until around the Spring Festival. High freight rates and high volumes will drive the explosive growth of shipping companies in the fourth quarter.
The "biggest" title changes hands?
Recently, MSC has successively sold and purchased multiple container ships. It is imaginative: Is the title of the world's largest container shipping company changing?
In addition to the two new container ships purchased by MSC as mentioned above, MSC also recently purchased another larger 5,642 TEU Panamax container ship Granville Bridge (built in 2006) from Japanese owner Doun Kisen. ), and neither party has announced the selling price.
It is worth mentioning that the sister ship of Granville Bridge, Greenville Bridge, was also sold by Doun Kisen to MSC earlier this month, with a disclosed price of US$14 million.
At the same time as Greenville Bridge, MSC also purchased another 2510TEU feeder container vessel named Bomar Hermes.
At the end of last month, MSC also spent US$158 million to purchase six large container ships of 7,500-8500TEU from the German shipowner company.
Among them, MSC paid US$114 million for 4 ships of 8,200TEU-8,500TEU. These 4 ships were 8,200TEU ER Tianping and R Tianshan and 8,500TEU ER Tokyo and ER Texas. The above 4 ships Both were built in 2006.
And the 7,849TEU ER Vancouver built in 2003 and the ER Yokohama built in 2004, packaged for $44 million.
Two days before this, MSC also purchased another Panamax container ship called Baltic East from South Korea's Changjin Merchant Marine for US$10 million.
In other words, MSC "buy" 11 ships in more than 20 days.
In addition, industry insiders said that MSC is also very likely to sign a series of large orders for 23,000 teu container ships recently.
In contrast, Maersk, the world's largest shipping company, is very calm. Recently, Maersk released its financial report for the third quarter of this year. The company’s CEO Shi Suoren added when introducing the company’s third-quarter performance report that Maersk currently has no plans to build 20,000+ TEU ships. The company only stated that some of the 10,000 TEU to 15,000 TEU ships are aging and need to be replaced, because being the original owner is more cost-effective than chartering. The company will maintain the current fleet capacity of about 4 million TEUs.
Shi Suoren said, "We are very aware of the technical risks of currently ordering ships," he added.
Analysts from Copenhagen-based sea intelligence pointed out in a report released recently that MSC may soon replace Maersk and become the world's largest shipping company.
According to the latest data from Alphaliner, the current container ship capacity of Mediterranean Shipping is 3,855,684 TEU, and the company has 5 new large ships waiting for delivery. The total capacity of these 5 new ships is 115,000 TEU. After all ships are delivered, MSC’s The total capacity will reach 3970684TEU.
Maersk’s current operating capacity is 4094302 TEU, order capacity is 46140 TEU, and the total capacity including new ship orders is 4140442 TEU.
Consolidation market is hot
The price of the container shipping market has continued to run at a high level recently. On November 13, the latest Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1857.33 points, an increase of 11.6% over the previous period. The SCFI index has hit a new high since the 2008 financial crisis.
Zhang Yongfeng, director of the International Shipping Research Institute of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, analyzed to a reporter from China Securities News that the recent epidemic in Europe and the United States has rebounded sharply. Import demand for daily necessities is strong, market volume is rising, container supply is tight, and the spot market freight rate The sharp increase drove the comprehensive freight index to rise.
"November is generally the traditional off-season for container shipping. This year's market conditions have far exceeded expectations. At present, the container shipping market has relatively abundant cargo and higher freight rates, continuing the pre-hot trend." Zhang Yongfeng said.
Data from the China Ports Association show that my country's foreign trade imports and exports have continued to improve recently, especially exports have further accelerated. In early November, the container throughput of the eight major hub ports increased by 13.1% year-on-year, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous period. The foreign trade container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by 11.5% year-on-year, and the domestic trade increased by 18.3% year-on-year, both significantly faster than the previous period. In terms of subregions, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions have seen strong growth in foreign trade business, with Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangzhou and Shenzhen growing at over 10%. Among them, the growth rate of Ningbo Zhoushan Port reached 33%.
With strong demand in the container shipping market, international shipping freight prices have continued to rise since June this year, and shipping prices on European routes, Persian Gulf routes, and South American routes have all increased significantly. At the same time, the domestic export container freight index is also rising sharply.
Han Jun, chief analyst of CITIC Construction Investment Transportation, believes that from the current situation, most shipping companies have already booked the space in late December. On November 22, major routes such as the European route will still see a rise in freight rates. According to information from major liner companies, freight rates will remain at a high level before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival next year, the shipping company will implement the suspension plan as usual. The maintenance of freight rates at a high level after March is a high probability event.
Zhang Yongfeng believes that the reason for the recent boom in the shipping market is the result of multiple factors. On the one hand, due to the impact of the global epidemic, demand was suppressed in the first half of the year, and many businesses had the need to replenish inventory; on the other hand, a large number of epidemic prevention materials were exported, and the demand for home shopping in overseas markets increased. In addition, the poor turnover of shipping containers further pushed up freight rates.
In a recent survey conducted by investors, CIMC said: “Currently, our company’s container orders have been scheduled to around the Spring Festival next year. The demand in the container market has increased significantly recently. The reasons are that first, affected by the epidemic, exported containers are scattered all over the world. The return is not smooth; second, foreign governments have introduced financial stimulus such as the epidemic relief plan, which has led to super strong performance on the demand side (such as living and office supplies) in the short term, and the housing economy is booming. It is currently judged that the “lack of boxes” situation will continue for at least some time. But the whole year of next year is not clear."
CITIC Construction Investment Research Report believes that the fundamental reason is the continuous and rapid growth of the demand side. According to data from the Container Trade Statistics Corporation (CTS), the growth rate of global container shipping trade volume remained flat in July 2020, and cargo volume accelerated in August and September. The volume of cargo in September increased by nearly 8% year-on-year. Looking at the year-on-year growth rate of the east-west trunk routes, the demand on the two major routes continued to expand, and the US route even expanded to a growth rate of more than 20%.
The research report pointed out that in the medium term, the replenishment of inventory in the US retail and wholesale industry has not yet ended, and the inventory cycle will last for at least half a year, laying the foundation for continuous improvement in demand. The achievement of RCEP can significantly reduce tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, further strengthen the position of the manufacturing center in the Far East, and lay the foundation for the growth of regional maritime trade. In addition, from the supply side, the proportion of shipbuilding orders held is at the lowest level in history. Even considering the impact of new shipbuilding, the delivery period will be after the second half of 2023, and there is no basis for large-scale launch of capacity.
"It is still hard to say that the shipping industry has recovered in an all-round way. Overall, the global epidemic is a bad factor for the shipping industry. The epidemic has changed the cycle of cargo shipments, and traditional shipping seasonal characteristics are not so obvious." Zhang Yongfeng said.
Consolidation company makes a big profit
In the third quarter just past, the container shipping market experienced a shortage of containers and skyrocketing ocean freight. At the same time, all liner companies continue to implement strict capacity management and cost control. In this context, liner companies’ performance has increased significantly.
Despite the decline in cargo volume, through combing the performance of various liner companies, in the third quarter of 2020, the revenue of 10 major liner companies in the world is still higher than the same period last year. All 10 liner companies achieved profits in the third quarter, with a total profit of 3.412 billion U.S. dollars, which was less than 800 million U.S. dollars in the same period last year, which was 4.27 times the same period last year.
Among them, Maersk has the highest profit, reaching 1.043 billion US dollars, and it is also the only liner company with a profit of 1 billion. Evergreen Shipping's profit increased the most, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 60 times.
In addition, there are three liner companies that are particularly interesting.
Among them, Star Shipping's performance in the third quarter increased by 28 times. Who would have thought that this company was once on the verge of bankruptcy. More importantly, Star Shipping has seized this opportunity in the e-commerce market and opened multiple e-commerce routes this year, driving a substantial increase in performance.
In addition, Yangming Shipping ended its long-term loss and achieved quarterly profit for the first time. But at the end of September just before the announcement of the results, Yangming Shipping announced the retirement of its former chairman Xie Zhijian. But for this achievement, old coach Xie Zhijian contributed a lot.
Finally, HMM stabilized its profitability. HMM once ended 21 consecutive quarters of losses in the second quarter of this year. At that time, the industry had different views on whether it could continue to make profits in the third quarter. The market situation has created opportunities for HMM.
On the whole, with operating income basically remaining stable, the major liner companies have achieved profits several times or even dozens of times the same period last year, which can be said to have made a lot of money.
Looking ahead to next year, the analysis agency Sea-Intelligence also changed its previous forecast, predicting that the pre-interest and tax (EBIT) of the container shipping industry in 2020 will reach 14.2 billion US dollars. In April of this year, the agency predicted that the impact of the epidemic might cost the entire shipping industry US$23 billion.
Sea-Intelligence said: "There is no doubt that the performance of liner companies in 2020 will not only far exceed last year, but even better than the level of the past 8 years."
This forecast conclusion is based on the increase in freight and freight volume.
Data from Container Trades Statistics shows that in the first nine months of 2020, global container shipping volumes have fallen by 3.4%. However, the cargo volume situation has reversed sharply in recent months. In September this year, the global container shipping volume has increased by 6.9%.
Based on this, Sea-Intelligence believes: "If this growth is maintained in the fourth quarter, the global container shipping volume will only fall by 0.8% in 2020."
After the end of the third quarter, some large liner companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also raised their full-year profit expectations. CMA CGM also stated that the market will remain strong for the rest of this year.
Although most liner companies are still more cautious about the market prospects and believe that next year's situation is unpredictable, Drewry believes that despite the second wave of the epidemic, they have optimistic expectations for liner companies' earnings in 2021.
