Due to the prevalence of port congestion and box shortages in Europe and the United States, freight volumes on the European and American routes will remain high.
Industry insiders predict that shipments from Asia to Europe will continue into the third quarter, and delays in US and European ports will continue to be the main bottleneck in the supply chain.
The National Retail Federation (hereinafter referred to as NRF, The National Retail Federation) predicts that this year's retail spending and consumer demand may further soar, the increase may be as high as 8.2%. According to NRF data, due to the substantial increase in demand, container throughput will increase by 23% in the first half of the year.
Consultant Jon Monroe pointed out, “Given that many importers are struggling with low inventories, replenishing inventory in order to meet their volume may be the key driving force for this year’s growth. Therefore, the question that everyone needs to face is how to deal with another possible occurrence. A turbulent year?"
Monroe said that most cargo owners (BCO) now intend to end contract negotiations and try to plan for expected market fluctuations, which may mean that contract requirements have not been met, soaring freight rates and shipping schedule reliability have been put on hold again.
Monroe made some suggestions for companies facing supply chain disruptions this year, including finding alternative delivery ports for imported goods other than Los Angeles and Long Beach, while optimizing warehouse efficiency while free time is reduced.
According to the table below, it is currently estimated that the "new normal" delivery time for goods arriving on the West Coast of the United States is currently expected plus 4 to 5 weeks.
The estimated delivery time (cargo is delivered via DC) is an additional 4 weeks for LA-LB port (an additional week this year)
The current situation of European cargo owners is similar to that of the United States. Port congestion is still the main problem, and the shortage of containers has exacerbated these difficulties. Especially in the United Kingdom, due to the problem of the space for storing empty containers, there has been a significant increase in delays in container delivery. Brexit has also had a certain impact.
According to data from Container xChange, “the trade interruption and continued congestion after Brexit are causing serious container accumulation in British ports.” said Dr. Johannes Schlingmeier, CEO of xChange, when the CAx index exceeds 0.5, it indicates that more containers are imported than exported. The index "increased significantly last year, with 40-foot containers rising from 0.71 to 0.86, and 20-foot containers rising from an average of 0.72 to 0.85."
Schlingmeier said, “The British ports are full of empty containers. If this problem becomes too serious, you may see additional charges for new (arriving) containers next.”
Container xChange stated that the link between Brexit and CAx is that as the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, British ports (mainly the Port of Felixstowe, but also the ports of Liverpool and Southampton) are facing severe congestion. British companies have become a problem, and some shipping companies have increased surcharges.
"To make matters worse, some shipping companies are currently unloading at EU ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam and Antwerp to avoid congestion at British ports. As a result, the CAx values of these ports have increased in the past few weeks," Schlingmeier explained. And added a reminder that CAx will further monitor the number of containers entering and leaving the port. Four or five months ago, shipping companies waited for return goods at European ports for two months, and now they are "carrying back to Asia with empty containers full."
Clarkson predicts that the volume of seaborne trade this year will exceed the level of 2019
Clarkson Research Services acknowledged that major uncertainties still exist, but it is expected that the global seaborne trade for the whole year of 2021 is not only expected to return to the level of 2019, but also expected to be this level.
Clarkson predicts that this year's seaborne trade volume will increase by 4.2% to 12 billion tons, which is 0.5% higher than the level in 2019. Clarkson estimated in a recent weekly report that in 2020, global seaborne trade will fall -3.6% for the whole year to 11.5 billion tons. In the first few weeks of 2021, most non-tank shipping industries will show high utilization rates and high rates.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.5% this year. Following a 3.5% drop last year, the economy in 2021 will grow by 1.8% over 2019. Looking at emerging economies and developed economies separately, only emerging economies will return to the level of 2019 this year. The IMF expects that emerging economies will grow by 6.3% and will fall by 2.4% in 2020. On the other hand, advanced economies are expected to grow by 4.3%, which is lower than the 4.9% decline in 2020.
A report from the Baltic International Chamber of Shipping (BIMCO) at the end of last month pointed out that the recovery in 2021 will not bring good news to everyone. The exact speed of the recovery will depend on the development of the epidemic and changes in travel restrictions and other containment measures.
The prosperous situation of the container shipping market will continue for a longer period of time. The profit of the shipping company in the first quarter of this year is expected to increase to several times that of the fourth quarter of last year, and the profit in the second quarter will be equal to or higher than that of the first quarter.
After the Spring Festival, the congestion problem of European and American ports has not been relieved as expected. Instead, it has spread everywhere. Major international ports such as Los Angeles, Oakland, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Felice Du, Liverpool, and Le Havre continued to be congested. Singapore is not immune. Although the current shortage of containers has improved, it is estimated that as the volume begins to increase at the end of March, it will return to the original situation in April.
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, pointed out that Asian terminals currently operate 24 hours a day, while berths on the west coast of the United States work 112 hours a week, container terminals work 88-90 hours a week, and land operations are limited to daytime. Therefore, the current situation of the trans-Pacific route is unlikely to improve in the short term.
On the whole, the off-season of the shipping market after the Spring Festival this year is not weak. The number of days for seasonal correction of freight rates before and after New Year's Eve is between 50 and 64 days. The rate of freight rate decline is between 17% and 27%. After the festival, only 3.8% is revised, which is still obvious. Less than historical convention.
Looking forward to the market outlook, analysis institutions are optimistic about the market performance this year. Drewry predicts that the global container shipping demand growth rate will reach 10.9% in 2021, which is much higher than the 4.5% growth rate of supply.
The Danish shipping consulting agency Sea-Intelligence also estimates that the surge in freight rates may continue until the spring of 2022, and the freight rates for the US line may increase by another 25%.
Sea-Intelligence's research report pointed out that the current US retail industry inventory is still at a historical low, and the relative inventory level has been the lowest in 28 years. This is undoubtedly good news for the shipping company. As long as the sales situation is normal, the US retail industry needs to be in Continue to replenish inventory in the next few months.
Executives of CH Robinson, the world's leading third-party logistics service provider, pointed out that global road, sea and air cargo congestion is likely to continue into next year and continue to increase transportation costs.
Although there is still room for increase in freight rates, the various operating costs of container shipping companies are also increasing significantly. Port congestion has reduced ship turnover by 20% to 30%, and container ship rents have soared, which has doubled in the past year. In addition, the price of marine fuel oil has increased by 60% since November last year, and the difficulty in crew dispatch caused by the epidemic has also increased labor costs by about 20%.
Consolidation company believes that starting from May this year, the long-term freight rate of the western US route has started from US$3,000, which is several times higher than that of last year’s US$1,400. Therefore, as long as the freight rates of the European and Southeast Asian routes are stable, the company’s profit in the second quarter may be The first quarter is equivalent. If it is a consolidator that starts to substantially increase US flights in mid-March, there is still a chance that the second quarter will make more profits than the first quarter.
The spot freight rates for containers from Asia to Europe and from Asia to the United States fell further from record highs last week. However, it is expected to remain high for a period of time.
There has been a sharp drop during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, but the rate is expected to remain high
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Japanese liner company Ocean Network Express (ONE), believes that the freight market will not stabilize before the middle of this year.
The Lowe's Daily said that in the absence of a sharp decline in traditional freight volumes after the Chinese New Year, the spot freight rates for Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific trade are still at historical highs; the spot exchange rate flexibility during the Spring Festival shows that the factors that support price increases are still Need to be alleviated. Cargo backlogs, port congestion, equipment shortages and continued high throughput mean shippers are still being charged premiums on the main trade routes.
The Drewry Composite Index shows that although it has fallen 2.2% in the past week, it is still 232.6% higher than a year ago. The year-to-date WCI average composite index assessed by Drewry is US$5,231 per 40-foot container, which is US$3539 higher than the five-year average of US$1,692 per 40-foot container.
The Drewry Composite Container Index fell 2.2% (US$117) to US$5121.04 per 40-foot container.
The freight from Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped by US$286, reaching US$8188/FEU;
The freight from Shanghai to Los Angeles dropped by 130 USD, reaching 4,261 USD/FEU;
The freight rate of the 40-foot container from Shanghai to Genoa fell by US$106 to US$8,505;
The freight from Shanghai to New York rose by 23 dollars to reach 6,651 dollars/FEU.
Drewry expects rates to stabilize relatively this week.
The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) released by the Ningbo Shipping Exchange closed at 2152.91 points, down 4.1% from 2245.32 points last week. Among the 21 routes, the freight index of 5 routes increased, and the freight index of 16 routes decreased. Among the major ports along the "Maritime Silk Road", the freight index of 17 ports fell.
The freight rate of the European-German route dropped as a whole, 3.9% lower than the previous week's European route; the eastern route dropped 4.2%; and the western route dropped 4.9%. While the North American route remained high, the US East route rose 2.5% from last week; the US West route rose 0.2% from last week.
European-German route: In view of the fact that the transportation demand is still recovering after the holiday, the goods hoarded before the holiday have basically been shipped, and the booking price of the European-German route has dropped overall. According to Freightos' recent Baltic Index (FBX), the price of 40-foot containers from Asia to Northern Europe fell 4% a week to US$8004; according to FBX data, in the Far East to Europe transaction, the spot freight rate was as high as US$8,306. /FEU, but fell by US$432 over the weekend to US$7,874/FEU (daily index).
But for Mediterranean ports , the average price dropped by only US$37 last week to US$7,926 per 40 feet.
Moreover, many shippers are still obliged to pay additional fees to ensure the availability of containers, and for British ports, a "port fee" of US$2,000 is usually added. A year ago, the FBX index showed that the freight rates per 40 feet in the Nordic and Mediterranean regions were US$1,533 and US$2,130 respectively.
Lory Cheung, an overseas marketing expert at China-based MRF International Forwarding, said that shipping companies must “do everything they can to seize every opportunity” because the shipping market will eventually return to normal. He pointed out: "At present, carriers seem to be more willing to sign long-term contracts with BCO rather than freight forwarders," which shows that shipping companies are working hard to lock the contract price at the highest possible level to avoid the impact of spot market fluctuations.
In fact, the high inflation rate in current transactions is forcing shippers to cancel orders for low-value products. A British non-vessel carrier (NVOCC) stated that he has noticed that a garden furniture importer’s bookings from China have dropped by a third this year.
North American routes: The market's freight volume has recovered faster than in previous years, and the route's loading rate remains high. According to the Freeghtos Baltic Index, since the end of February, freight rates outside of Asia have decreased, and the spot freight rate for Pacific Eastbound transactions has dropped from a high of US$4922/FEU on February 26 to US$4197 on March 4. /FEU. However, by March 5, the spot freight rate soared again to US$4,709/FEU. At the same time, in the Trans-Pacific region, the West Coast portion of FBX in the United States fell 11% last week to $4,369 per 40 feet. Freightos expects this decline to be temporary, given the strong demand for trade.
The FBX index for US East Coast ports fell 3% to $5659/FEU.
Freightos research director Judah Levine said: "Although the rates are falling, they may remain very high for a period of time." "As the US retail inventory level is still very low, it may take until the end of this year to restore normal inventory."
According to the latest data from the signal platform of the Port of Los Angeles, the volume of inbound containers this week reached 175,300 TEU, an increase of 505.56% over the same period last year. There are 17 container ships berthing at anchorages, and 10 container ships waiting to be anchored outside the port, with an average waiting time of 7.5 days.
Last week, even if the freight rates of the two major trade routes from China to the United States and Europe fell, at least 35 to 40 ships were anchored on the west coast of the United States due to congestion in US ports continuing to spread to ports outside North America. More than twenty container ships waited for two weeks to berth. These container ships were loaded with exercise bikes, electronics and other highly sought-after imported goods. Los Angeles Port Director Gene Seroka said at a recent board meeting: "The backlog is expected to continue until midsummer."
Congestion in Southern California, dozens of container ships waiting to berth
Jon Monroe of Worldwide Logistics said that the traffic congestion in the Los Angeles/Long Beach area was mainly caused by the layoff of more than 700 skilled dock workers due to Covid-19 infection. "Due to the complexity of the operating models of multiple terminals in Southern California ports, this situation is more difficult to resolve quickly. Of course, in addition to this, 45% to 50% of imported goods in the United States are transported through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach." He added , The shipping terminal has insufficient storage space, the truck queue at the terminal is also very long, and the chassis continues to be short.
At the same time, Jon Monroe of Jon Monroe Consulting in Washington State suggested that there is evidence that the strong momentum of trade may be maintained until the Chinese New Year in 2022.
The market is unprecedentedly strong, which is bad news for shippers who are struggling to sign new annual contracts from Asia to the United States. "Many people I have spoken to have stated that this will be a fast negotiation," Jon Monroe said. "The question this year is more about'how to ship the product?' rather than'how much is the cost?'"
At present, there is a 40% unbalanced gap in containers in North America. This means that for every 10 containers that arrive, only 4 return, and 6 remain at the arrival port. The average monthly trade between China and the United States is 900,000 TEU, and there is indeed a huge absolute imbalance in containers. In addition, according to the data of consulting company Descartes Datamyne, the current shipment volume is at the highest level in history. In the first quarter of this year, sales increased by 23.3% over the same period last year.
The container shipping crisis has affected various business areas in different ways. For example, the transportation of high-value commodities such as mechanical engineering products, electronic products and computer equipment will be less affected. But for other types of goods, especially the textile industry in Asia, the increase in transportation costs has brought more serious consequences. Exporters claim that the sharp increase in freight rates has led to the closure of many low-profit textile mills. Delays and container shortages are pushing up freight rates. In Asia, delivery delays can be up to several weeks, forcing many companies to negotiate price increases with buyers.
Aerial photography of Southern California full of container ships! Terminal operators expect to get rid of the dilemma by the end of spring
Recently, a cold wave swept the United States and quickly plunged the southern state of Texas into disaster. In this unprecedented cold wave, more than 4 million people in the United States have suffered power outages, countless power plants have been destroyed, and electricity and natural gas prices have skyrocketed. ; At present, the price of electricity in Texas has increased by more than 100 times, up to 9,000 US dollars per megawatt, and the price of natural gas has skyrocketed by more than 160 times, reaching US$500, compared with only US$3 in the past; it is jaw-dropping.
Except for Texas, which is in a serious disaster, other states in the United States are not doing well. There are about 168 million people in the United States under the threat of this cold wave. Numerous airports have been suspended. According to data from the flight monitoring website "flightaware", Dallas and Houston , Austin area airports have cancelled more than 2,000 inbound and outbound flights on the 15th . Coupled with the new crown pneumonia crisis that is still raging across the United States, the United States is really miserable.
In terms of shipping, the Southern California anchorage is full of container ships, and the congestion continues to worsen ! The latest video released by the U.S. Coast Guard provides intuitive evidence of the congestion levels in Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach. From the picture, a large number of container ships are moored at the anchorage in San Pedro Bay, California.
U.S. Coast Guard aerial scene
Data shows that the historic container ship congestion in California ports has not really eased. There are currently 63 container ships in Los Angeles and Long Beach, and 32 container ships are waiting for berths at anchorages. (On February 1st, the highest record of 40 container ships anchored at anchorage)
The Port of Los Angeles announced the number of berth days for a particular container ship through its Signal platform last week. Data shows that some ships stay at anchorage and wait for almost as long as they sail across the Pacific Ocean . For example, as of last Thursday, the 6332TEU container ship "Ever Envoy" has been parked for 11 days. As of Tuesday, the 9,400TEU "MSC Romane" has been parked for 12 days. And the three container ships of 11356TEU "CMA CGM Andromeda", 8452 TEU "Ever Liven" and 4888TEU "NYK Nebula" also berthed for 11 days as of last week.
As of the end of 2020, the number of container ships at anchor has increased to 30; since then, it has remained between 20 and 40. At the same time, the number of vessels at berths in Los Angeles and Long Beach remained at around 20 and 30. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Southern California Shipping Exchange, said: "We seem to have adapted to the new normal of about 30 container ships waiting in line every day. I don't know if this situation will continue."
As of Tuesday, the average time for ships docking in Los Angeles was 8 days , up from 7.3 days at the beginning of last week. From the information on the waiting time of ships provided by the platform from January 27th, the waiting time for ships to berth has been maintained for about one week, and the data for the last two periods has been extended to 8 days.
The latest data from the Signal platform: 20 ships at anchor, with an average anchoring time of 8.0 days. There are 14 ships waiting to be pre-anchored.
What caused the blockage? The extended berthing time of ships forced some shipping companies to cancel multiple voyages this month. This is not due to lack of cargo demand, but due to lack of available vessels to handle these services. Delays on land have also caused congestion at sea: extremely high inbound volumes and complex logistics inside and outside the port have caused delays on land. One of the challenges facing the port is the new crown virus infection of dockers and a serious shortage of labor.
Despite productivity gains last month, terminal operators at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach said the ports may have to wait until the end of spring to get rid of the ship backlog and congestion that have plagued them in the past six months . The near-record number of containers will continue into the spring of this year, but the backlog of ships at the port and the fully loaded inbound containers at the terminal should disappear sometime between April and June.
The managers of SSA Marine, Yusen Terminals and Fenix Marine stated that in order to alleviate the congestion in the port, two projects to be developed are necessary. First, the COVID-19 vaccine must be widely distributed among dock workers to alleviate the recent labor shortage. During the Lunar New Year holiday this month, container traffic has declined moderately, which should also enable shipping terminals to remove the backlog of fully loaded imported containers from their facilities.
"The terminals are full and there is no place to put these containers. We deliver 35% less cargo (to truck drivers) than usual," said Ed Dannick, president of SSA Containers.
According to data from the HarborTrucking Association, the average truck stay at the terminal in January improved from 93 minutes in December to 88 minutes, but it was still much higher than the record low of 58 minutes in June. Imports peaked during the recovery period after the first wave of COVID-19 lockdown.
The backlog of ships in Long Beach, Los Angeles, is increasing unabated. According to statistics from the Marine Exchange of Southern California, there are currently 63 container ships in the Port of Long Beach in Los Angeles, of which 32 are at anchor waiting for berths and 31 are at berths.
The latest data released by the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association (PMSA) shows that in December last year, the average container stay time at the 12 terminals of the Port of Long Beach in Los Angeles was 4.99 days. This is twice the average length of stay (approximately 2.5 days) recorded by PMSA in the first half of 2020.
“The longer the container stays at the terminal, the more serious the congestion will be. When the container piles up like a mountain, the congestion creates additional and inefficient handling requirements,” said PMSA’s government affairs manager jessicaalvarenga.
The new crown epidemic hits labor in the port
According to the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), the West Coast port employers' Association and the International Terminal and Warehouse Union (ILWU), the new crown epidemic has severely affected the labor force along the Los Angeles-Long Beach Port. As of January 17, The International Terminal and Warehouse Union (ILWU) reported that 694 of its members tested positive. By January 25, this number jumped to 803.
PMA stated that there is a particular shortage of skilled equipment operators, who need to remove containers from trucks, and then move them into and out of the container yard, which is critical to the operation of the terminal. As a result, the joint committee of PMA and ILWU, which is responsible for allocating workers to the docks on a daily basis, cut the allocation share.
"It boils down to the labor issue at the terminal," said Scott Weiss, vice president of business development at Port Logistics Group, which has a large number of truck and warehouse operations throughout Southern California. "Containers still have bottlenecks in and out of the terminal."
The latest information released by the Signal platform of the Port of Los Angeles shows that due to the new crown epidemic, the productivity of coastal labor has decreased, which has caused ship delays and the average delay of port facilities is 8.0 days .
These ports are working with trans-Pacific shipping companies to reduce Southern California's load until the volume returns to normal. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said that he is working with shipping companies and terminal operators to "measure" imports until the port catches up. Hapag-Lloyd (Hapag-Lloyd) has announced the opening of a structured route to Southern California in February, and CMA CGM will remove Los Angeles from the trans-Pacific route and use Oakland as the first port of call from Asia. , Followed by Seattle-Tacoma.
The terminal operator said that when workers throughout the supply chain are vaccinated and imports drop, the congestion in Long Beach, Los Angeles, will disappear.
Spring recovery?
Alan McCorkle, President and Chief Executive Officer of Yusen Terminals in Los Angeles, said that in the past six months, the container throughput of these terminals was close to record levels, but there was no overall congestion. This fact shows that if the peak season does not last for six consecutive months, they will have Ability to handle peak season cargo volume. He expects to return to normal in May or June.
Scott Schoenfeld, general manager of Fenix Marine Services in Los Angeles, said that Fenix is showing signs of improvement, so he is optimistic that congestion may be eased as early as April . The density of containers in the yard is not as high as late last year, and more truck drivers are able to transport containers every day.
However, container traffic is still rising, and as overloaded ships continue to arrive in Southern California, this trend will continue until at least next month. NVOCC consultant Jon Monroe said that the eastbound transpacific shipping company has deployed or will add 10 additional loading vessels in February, all deployed at the Port of Los Angeles-Long Beach. Judging from the latest data from the Los Angeles Signal platform, there was another peak in the surge in volume in the eighth week.
Volume surged in the eighth week
Jon Monroe pointed out that although more Chinese factories will continue to maintain at least part of their business this month to clear the backlog of merchandise orders compared to previous years, the total volume of the East Pacific trans-Pacific region should be greater than the previous six months. Months are less.
Scott Weiss, vice president of business development at Port Logistics Group, said that the 1.8 billion square feet of industrial and distribution space throughout Southern California is not fully loaded, just like last fall before the holiday season merchandise was transferred to stores across the country. However, the availability of space in warehouses and distribution facilities has been mixed. "Some warehouses are in a mess now, others are working well. I think the ratio is about 50-50,"
Scott Weiss said that productivity has generally declined, and warehouses across the region are experiencing labor shortages due to the new crown epidemic, but at the same time, freight volumes are still exceptionally strong. "Everyone I contacted is experiencing record sales and growth, but everyone is working hard to cope."
Weston LaBar, CEO of the Port Transportation Association, said that the current truck capacity is tight, and the availability of workers at both ends of the truck driver's route, the terminal and the distribution warehouse, has been challenged . However, when workers feel safe, they return in large numbers. LaBar said: "The most effective thing we can do right now is to vaccinate."
In recent days, the shipping industry has been in a panic due to the shortage of containers, and ocean freight has soared abnormally, which has affected the supply chain of the manufacturing industry.
However, currently, according to an indicator that tracks global shipping containers, the global shipping shortage seems to be showing signs of easing.
The "Available Container Index" developed by the online platform Container xChange shows that this index can be maintained between 0.35 and 0.38 until the Chinese New Year in mid-February.
This index: if it falls at 0.5, it means that the supply and demand of containers is in balance; if it is lower than 0.5, it means that the supply of containers is in short supply; if it is higher than 0.5, it means that the supply is oversupply.
When the shortage of containers was the most serious last month, the index fell to an ultra-low level of 0.06 to 0.13 depending on the size of the container, and the index began to rebound this month.
It is reported that the imbalance of container shortages in 2020 will be particularly serious in Shanghai. As the Chinese factories resumed production after the epidemic eased, the demand for goods exported to the United States surged, but no empty containers were found to deliver goods out of the port.
But Container xChange said that the situation is now moving towards a normal level .
"One of the main reasons for the improvement in the imbalance between supply and demand is that the shipping industry has made every effort to transport a large number of empty containers from the world's major congested ports back to China. The Lunar New Year may become a turning point for the lack of containers. The Lunar New Year holiday starts on February 11. "
Port of Los Angeles, USA
According to media reports, at present, many shipping companies are eager to ship empty containers back to China from the Port of Los Angeles in the United States and refuse to carry American goods. This has largely alleviated the current shortage of containers, but it has caused the export of American agricultural products to suffer.
For this reason, the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has stated that it will investigate shipping companies' refusal to load American agricultural products and transport empty containers to them. If the investigation is unreasonable, it will impose a fine.
US financial website CNBC reported that from October to November last year, it was the peak season for American agricultural products exports. Shipping companies refused to carry hundreds of millions of dollars worth of American agricultural products exports, and would rather take the time to ship empty containers back to mainland China ports to load profits. Higher Chinese export products.
So FMC launched an investigation and reviewed data from several key ports in California, New York, and New Jersey to find out whether the shipping company’s refusal to carry violated the Maritime Act.
According to FMC's survey, data from the Port of Los Angeles, the Port of Long Beach, New York and the Port of New Jersey, in October and November last year, it is estimated that as many as 178,000 standard containers were rejected. CNBC estimated the value of the affected agricultural products based on the export price of each TEU soybean/oil seed/grain item on the U.S. Bureau of Statistics website in the Port of Los Angeles.
However, industry insiders said that although shipping companies’ refusal to carry US agricultural products has caused losses to US exports, it has indeed alleviated the shortage of containers in global shipping to a certain extent in the near future, which is expected to be alleviated in the Lunar New Year.
In the past two months, the cost of transporting goods from China to Europe has more than quadrupled, hitting a record high, due to the pandemic disrupting global trade and the shortage of empty containers.
Data from shippers and importers show that the freight for transporting a 40-foot container from Asia to Northern Europe has risen from approximately US$2,000 in November last year to more than US$9,000.
Lars Jensen, CEO of maritime consulting company SeaIntelligence, said that the reason for the increase in freight rates is the market's competition for limited resources-containers.
In the first half of 2020, due to a sudden slowdown in global trade due to the epidemic blockade, shipping companies have suspended large-scale shipping and thousands of empty containers are stranded in Europe and the United States. In the second half of the year, when Western countries' demand for Asian-made goods rebounded, competition among shippers for available containers pushed up freight rates.
John Butler, Chairman of the World Shipping Council, said, "The freight volume has dropped from a sharp decline to soaring to the highest level in history, and the effective handling capacity of the terminal has exceeded the upper limit."
He added that the congestion in the port has caused freight rates to rise, and shipping companies charge additional fees to compensate for the longer waiting time.
British freight forwarding company Edge Worldwide CEO Philip Edge said that some shipping companies charge US$12,000 per container, much higher than the US$2,000 in October last year.
The British Household Electrical Appliance Manufacturers Association stated in a statement, “According to member companies’ disclosures, shipping costs have increased by more than 300% since 2020. Especially for some commodities, the increase in shipping costs has exceeded the net increase Profit. Therefore, these costs will have to be passed on to the end user."
The owner of a leisure goods importer in Manchester said that the shortage of containers is having a “huge impact” on his business, and some orders placed in November are still waiting to be shipped. "The question is, is it to pay $12,000 now and pass the cost on to the customer, or to wait at the risk of exhausting inventory?"
Economists say that such interruptions and delays are beginning to affect global supply chains. Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, said that "transportation pressure is accumulating and may increase further."
A recent survey by IHS Markit found that in December last year, the delivery time of manufacturing suppliers in the Eurozone reached the worst level since the peak of the pandemic lockdown in April. Shipping delays and general commodity shortages were "widely mentioned" by suppliers. .
The companies surveyed stated that they are consuming inventory of raw materials and semi-finished products, resulting in a decline in inventory.
Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, said that "supply shortages and rising freight rates may slightly curb trade growth."
On the occasion of the Chinese New Year in February, the Asian manufacturing industry slowed down. Shipping companies hope to use this time to solve the problem of increasing backlog orders, which will temporarily cool freight rates.
However, BIMCO chief shipping analyst Peter Sand said that the shortage of containers may continue for a long time in 2021. Although the shipping company has ordered new containers, in his opinion, such a move is "too small and too late."
Lars Jensen also believes that although freight rates may drop slightly, "there are still a lot of goods waiting to be transported."
John Butler pointed out that only when epidemic-related restrictions are reduced and people have more diverse service choices, the pressure on the maritime supply chain can be alleviated, but no one can say when it can be improved.
Due to the continued strong demand for shipping on major routes, the number of container shipping companies suspended around the Spring Festival appears to be much smaller than in previous years. China's manufacturing industry will temporarily suspend work during the Spring Festival every year, and the corresponding shipping logistics will also slow down accordingly. Currently, the Spring Festival is less than six weeks away.
Sea-Intelligence, a shipping consulting company, said that in "normal years", Chinese factories have reduced production and trade due to the Lunar New Year holiday, and some shipping companies have adopted a suspension strategy to balance capacity and demand. However, in the recent period, due to the increase in freight rates for trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe cargo flows, shipping companies’ practices seem to be different from previous years.
Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy said that under the influence of many uncertain factors, it is difficult for the market to make consistent predictions on manufacturing production during the Spring Festival in 2021. Shipping companies also have greater difficulty in planning capacity allocation.
As of January 1, on the trans-Pacific route, the shipping companies had only announced 5 suspension voyages, while during the three-week Chinese New Year (weeks 7-9), the Asia-Europe route had only 7 suspension voyages. One. In the same period of 2020, the number of suspended voyages reached 88. If the impact of the epidemic is excluded, the number will reach 73, an increase of 10 over the same period in 2019.
If you analyze the voyage deployment of the Asia-North American West Coast trade route four weeks before the Chinese New Year in 2021 to three weeks after the Chinese New Year, and compare it with the same period in 2016-2020, it can be seen that the number of suspended flights in 2021 has not been significantly reduced.
Currently, the number of suspended voyages during the Spring Festival in 2021 is much lower than in previous years. If it reaches the capacity reduction level of previous years, the shipping company will need to suspend 37-41 voyages on the Asia-NAWC route and 12-15 voyages on the east coast of Asia-North America.
Similarly, the Asia-Northern Europe route must cancel 14-17 more voyages, and the Asia-Mediterranean route must cancel another 4-6 voyages. In Alan Murphy's view, it is difficult to predict the optimal deployment of voyages, but it is clear that the number of planned suspensions of shipping companies will be much less than in previous years.
He added that if the level of previous years is to be reached, a large number of suspended voyages must be announced soon. "
In addition, an analysis on freight rates and demand pointed out that at the end of 2020, the freight rates on the Asia-US route will continue to rise.
Freightos said that the continuous surge in demand, including shipping pressure before the Spring Festival, is enough to push up the freight rates of trans-Pacific routes.
In the first week of January, the Shanghai Container Freight Index showed that the freight rate from Shanghai to the United States dropped slightly and the freight rate remained at a relatively high level. Among them, the average freight rate from Shanghai to the West Coast of the United States was still above US$4,000/FEU. , The average freight rate from Shanghai to the east coast of the United States is still above US$4,700/FEU. At the same time, the return freight rate increased by 36% to 703 US dollars/FEU and 25% to 769 US dollars/FEU respectively. The main reason for this was the increase in costs caused by the shipping companies to dispatch empty containers.
(Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)
The freight rates of Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean routes have increased by 30% in the first week of 2021. Freightos pointed out that the basic freight rates (excluding surcharges) of the two routes have risen to an unfeasible $7,000/FEU, which has tripled compared to the end of October and tripled over the same period last year.
Freightos added that because demand has not significantly decreased, analysts expect that congestion, delays, equipment shortages, and high rates may continue beyond the Spring Festival and continue into the second quarter of 2021.
Freightos Chief Marketing Officer Eytan Buchman said that for cargo owners, there can be expectations. During the Spring Festival, the number of suspensions announced by shipping companies is much lower than normal, which may indicate that they will use this time to ease the number of empty containers. The problem of imbalance. "
After the freight rate in the trans-Pacific market has remained stable for a period of time, it has recently started a rising mode.
According to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (Freightos Baltic Daily Index), on December 28, 2020, the freight rate of the Asia-US West Coast route reached US$4,189/FEU, a record high, an increase of 8% from December 25, which is the year of 2019. 3 times over the same period.
At the same time, the freight rate of the Asia-US East Coast route also reached an astonishing US$5397/FEU, a 9% increase from December 25 and twice the rate of the same period in 2019.
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 25, 2020, the freight rates (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port markets of the West and the East of the United States were 4,080 USD/FEU and 4,876 USD/FEU, respectively. The US West route rose 4.6% from the previous week.
Analysts of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to the West and East U.S. routes maintained at a level close to full load. However, the U.S. epidemic has blocked the turnover of containers, and a large number of containers are stranded at the local terminal. The congestion of the port is increasing, and the shortage of containers has not been alleviated.
In addition, a number of shipping companies including CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen Shipping, HMM, ONE, Yangming Shipping, and Star Shipping have announced that they will start on the trans-Pacific route from January 1, 2021. , Charge a comprehensive rate increase surcharge (GRI) ranging from US$1,000 to US$1,200/FEU.
The market predicts that the upward trend of freight rates will continue until January 2021.
In contrast to the fast-growing transportation demand, after a fully loaded ship arrived at the US West Port, it faced the dilemma of nowhere to stop.
According to a report released by the Marine Exchange of Southern California on December 28, 2020, a total of 24 container ships are anchored in San Pedro Bay, and another 5 ships are about to arrive.
According to the report, the local conventional anchorages are full of ships, and some emergency anchorages have also been occupied.
Marine Traffic uses an automatic identification system to draw a map that shows the extent of the accumulation of container ships in San Pedro Bay, which has deteriorated in recent weeks.
According to statistics, 26 additional ships called at the Port of Los Angeles in November and 31 ships in December. A port manager said that it is expected that in January 2021, more additional ships will call.
The loading and unloading capacity of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has already faced serious shortages. The Port of Los Angeles will import 116,500 TEU containers this week, and it is expected to increase significantly to 150,000 TEU per week by January 2021.
The continuous increase in freight rates and the severe congestion at the US West Port have caused shippers’ costs to hit unprecedented highs, and shippers have to reassess their transportation cost budgets for 2021.
The shipping industry in 2020 can be said to be half winter and half summer.
Affected by the epidemic, China's exports declined in the first half of the year, and the shipping industry was cold and "overwintering" ahead of schedule. In the second half of the year, the neglected shipping industry directly entered the "midsummer." As the epidemic situation in China stabilizes and the economy recovers steadily, goods from all countries are transferred from Chinese ports. For a time, China's shipping industry is showing a busy scene.
“It’s too difficult to order containers now!” A reporter from the Securities Daily could see vehicles transporting containers coming and going at the Shanghai port. A foreign trade official who did not want to be named told the reporter: “At present, I want to order a container. The price can be said to be one price per day. Not only that, even if the container is booked, I still have to worry about the availability of the cabin."
"Shanghai SIPG, Ningbo, and Shenzhen are all major ports in the world. In 2018 and 2019, the container throughput of Shanghai Port was ranked first. Recently, the container shipping market is very hot, and many boxes cannot be returned after they go out." People from listed companies commented on the reporter of "Securities Daily".
In this regard, Liu Wang, chairman of Shanghai Tianhui International Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters: “The price of container transportation has been rising. Because shipping companies have fewer ships, they often suspend voyages, and the lack of boxes is common, even if the price increases. It cannot fundamentally solve the problem of missing boxes."
• One price a day, "boxes" are crazy
"The most exaggerated time in the past 10 years." Speaking of the current shipping industry, Ms. Xie, who is engaged in the foreign trade industry, told a reporter from the Securities Daily. Ms. Xie is mainly responsible for the freight of Guangzhou Nansha Port and Shenzhen Port. She told reporters that taking a 40-foot container as an example, the highest sea freight to the Middle East at this time last year was about US$3,000. It costs almost US$5,000 now. Last year, it was US$2,800 to US$3,200 to Europe, and now it is US$6,000 to US$7,000. This year, the freight is almost twice the same period last year.
By the end of the year, the lack of positions became a true portrayal of the operation industry.
“Nowadays, there is a shortage of containers and high freight rates. The supply exceeds demand. During the epidemic, there was a large backlog of foreign containers that could not be arranged for delivery, and no one carried the goods. Almost all customers were looting containers. Under current market conditions, there are few freight forwarders. When looking for new customers, they are basically priority old customers.” Ms. Xie told reporters that the new year is approaching, and major suppliers are fully shipping. It is expected that the shortage of containers will continue.
"First of all you have to have a position, then you have to line up the truck to get the container, and finally you have to wait for the port to open before you can enter the port. Every day, you have to go through five hurdles, and you have to face customer soul torture. It's late, can't you figure it out?" A shipping forwarder complained about the tightness of the current export containers.
Liu Wang revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many forwarders who have no boxes sometimes look for scalpers. Now forwarders are looting positions. The positions have to be booked in advance. Many people robbed and reselled them. In the past, they did not lose their shipping fees. Now that the shipping companies are recovering their losses, the shipping companies are about to usher in a wave of market conditions this year. After the merger and reorganization last year, it is estimated that all the money lost in the past will be made back this year."
Liu Wang said: “In the past Christmas and the Spring Festival, there will be a wave of liquidation market, this year is particularly fierce because of the epidemic. South American container boxes were the lowest in history at 50 US dollars a small container, and now basically it costs more than 5,000 US dollars, and a large box 10,000. U.S. dollars, if $5,000 this week is too expensive for you, you may not be able to order $6,000 next week, basically one price a week."
In fact, the current container price has been upgraded to a daily basis. A person in charge of an international logistics company said: “In Qingdao Port, the price of a second-hand 40-foot container in previous years was about US$2,000. On November 27 this year, the price rose to US$2,850; by November 30, the price of a second-hand container rose to US$3,200. ; On December 3, it rose to 3,400 US dollars again, almost one day."
According to data from the freight benchmark company Xeneta, the current average price of short-term market contracts in Asia and Europe for three months or less is 200% higher than a year ago, at $4,831 per 40 feet. But from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by an astonishing 390.5%.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings told reporters: “As the volume of goods continues to rise, the demand for export containers has greatly increased, and the domestic guarantee for container use has become tighter. However, the turnover of overseas empty containers has generally slowed due to the continuous impact of the epidemic situation in various places. Transfer back to China to meet demand."
"The whole industry is looking for boxes everywhere, and some merchants are beginning to hoard boxes to speculate on prices." In the eyes of industry insiders, the current situation of foreign trade companies being difficult to find a box is not only because of the slow operation of containers, but also because of the reduction of some routes. .
"There are few ship lines, and most of the cabinets shipped abroad can't return. This is the root cause of the skyrocketing price of the domestic container transportation market." Liu Wang explained to the reporter: "It's not that foreign cabinets are not coming back. It is the epidemic situation abroad. The impact is that the workers do not go to work and the speed of transportation is relatively slow. Now everyone is sharing the warehouse."
According to Liu Wang, the container ships now and the alliance has been formed since last year. Originally, it used its own ships to transport the goods. Now four or five shipowners or five or six companies form an alliance, and use the same ship. warehouse. "It turns out that there may be several shipping companies arranging several shifts to go to sea in a week. Once we formed an alliance, the shifts decreased in a week. This started last year. Now shipping companies often stop once a week, which objectively leads to a shortage of ships. ."
A person in charge of the Shanghai Maritime Logistics Company introduced to a reporter from the Securities Daily: "At present, the proportion of import and export trade by sea is imbalanced. There are few boxes coming in and many boxes going out . In addition, China has quickly prevented and controlled the epidemic, and overseas orders have continued to surge. , Increasing the pressure on shipping. Overseas, affected by the epidemic, the operation cycle of containers shipped out due to business environment problems has been lengthened, the arrival process has increased, and the operation efficiency has slowed and lengthened the circulation cycle. Due to the early outbreak of the epidemic, major shipping The company has reduced many routes, resulting in uneven distribution of global container volumes."
The industry believes that with the increase in market demand, the current effective capacity is obviously insufficient.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO Shipping Holdings revealed to the reporter: "As the global epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, global trade has been rapidly repaired since the third quarter of this year, and the demand in the container shipping market has recovered beyond expectations. In order to meet the growth of transportation demand, market capacity has gradually returned to normal. , The idle capacity has dropped rapidly from the record high of more than 2.7 million TEU (international standard unit units) in May this year. At present , there is no airworthy effective capacity to rent in the market. "
In the context of uneven global container deployment, container prices on different routes have also risen at different rates.
"Since November, the price of the U.S. line has increased by about four times compared with the beginning of the year, and the European line has risen to the highest price last year. From the perspective of the distribution of China’s export routes, the U.S. container accounts for 25%, Europe accounts for 25%, and Southeast Asia , Northeast Asia adds up to 50%, the US route is now hard to find a box is the norm, followed by the European route, freight is also very tight. The price of Malaysia route in Southeast Asia has also doubled recently." The person in charge of the aforementioned logistics company added.
Facing the increase in demand for containers, the above-mentioned relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings stated: “The company will strengthen scientific forecasts for container use, actively coordinate dual-brand superior resources, and make every effort to guarantee the use of containers during peak seasons. On the one hand, internally tap the potential and accelerate overseas heavy container Demolition speed, increase empty container callback domestic and Far East efforts to promote container turnover; on the other hand, close communication with container manufacturers and container leasing companies to seek more container sources. Through two-pronged and multiple measures, to guarantee domestic container use Provide effective assistance and try our best to meet the shipping needs of customers."
In order to meet the development needs of the container market, SIPG has launched a number of effective measures to promote container volume growth in response to the market. At the beginning of this year, the Group launched seven special measures for container growth, through the implementation of preferential international transit loading and unloading fees, extension of the international transit container storage exemption period, and sea-rail intermodal customs clearance container preferential projects. In the first half of the year, the Group established three major container areas: Yangshan, Outer Harbor, and Domestic Trade, striving to achieve overall planning and agglomeration effects.
According to SIPG’s official announcement, in October, each terminal of Shanghai Port set a new record. The monthly throughput of Shengdong Company exceeded 820,000 TEUs for the first time. Among them, 33068 TEUs and 12899.75 TEUs were updated on October 25. Class record; Guandong Company broke through 720,000 TEU, setting a new record again.
• How long can the "shortage of containers" last? What is the future prospect of the shipping industry?
"The first half of the year was affected by the new crown epidemic. Ports and shipping fields did suffer a relatively large negative impact, so the first half of the year was basically a negative growth state. In the second half of the year, especially after the third quarter, normal operations resumed to a certain extent, plus China The epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, and most of the economic activities have been resumed first. Therefore, compared with the first half of the year, there is indeed a big sign of a bottoming out." said Liu Dian, a research assistant at the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China.
In the first two months of this year, my country's foreign trade imports and exports dropped significantly. According to China Customs data, from January to February 2020, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.
Although the current domestic epidemic situation is under control, the global epidemic is breaking out, and exports are still under certain impact.
It can be said that in the first half of this year, people in the shipping industry were mainly pessimistic about my country's export prospects. In the second half of the year, the industry was generally optimistic about the future development of the shipping industry.
Insiders analyzed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that this round of container freight price increases began in the middle of this year. At that time, after the domestic epidemic was brought under control, foreign countries were greatly affected by the epidemic, and many overseas orders were transferred to the domestic market. When shipping from China, the shipping price began to rise. According to Liu Wang's prediction, this round of price increases will continue until the first quarter of next year.
An unnamed person in charge of maritime logistics said: "As the epidemic stabilizes, this hot market will continue into the first half of next year, or even longer."
"This wave of increase in container shipping prices has driven the adjustment of the entire foreign trade sector, breaking the laws of the past decades in the industry. Not only ocean freight, air freight and land transportation have different levels of influence and changes. The epidemic has accelerated the entire large trade sector. The consolidation and adjustment of the shipping sector will gradually move towards intensive development. Shipping companies have become monopolistic after years of integration and mergers. The aviation sector and the land transport sector are also rapidly integrated, and a new chapter will emerge in the future foreign trade field." People say so.
According to Huang Tianhua, chairman of the China Container Industry Association and vice president of CIMC, predicted that the shortage of containers may continue for about six months . He said: "We have monitored that if there are 500,000 new containers in China normally, they are in a completely healthy state if they are ready for use in the docks or ports, but the current tighter inventory is about 300,000 new containers. I expect it to be possible. In the next three months to six months, this slightly tense balance will continue. This is probably a trend in the current industry."
Although the industry is generally optimistic about the shipping industry, Liu Dian believes that the total global trade volume in 2020 will still drop a certain percentage from the previous year, but from the perspective of the shipping industry, it will definitely be from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. There will be a better market.
Liu Dian said: “Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the uncertainties slowed down in the second half of the year, and the overall trend showed a relatively large rebound. Therefore, from a macro perspective, global international trade has rebounded to a certain extent. China is the first to resume the rebound led by the next."
" At present, the shipping industry is mainly affected by three factors :
Di Yi factor is that the global economy is expected to have a recovery, so after the third quarter, international trade has been warmer, led the field of shipping industry as a whole for the better, whether it is from container or just have some trade from the sea to pick up case .
The second factor is that with the signing of the RCEP agreement, a series of regional economic integration cooperation relations in East Asia and Southeast Asia will improve, which will benefit the import and export trade of China and related countries.
The third factor is that although the epidemic has not been eliminated on a global scale, all countries are in short supply, such as medical supplies, production supplies, and living supplies. China is now the world's largest trade surplus country. Under such circumstances, China's export trade, including part of its import trade, will also get a relatively large rebound in demand, and at the same time promote the rise of a series of shipping-related industry indexes in related fields, including the container shipping index. "Liu Dian said.
If shippers and logistics companies hope that the ultra-high shipping container prices will fall in the New Year, then they may be disappointed.
Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, revealed at a press conference that global logistics giants and container liner companies expect that the chaotic market, lack of berths, and container shortages, etc., will still be available by 2021. Will last for a while.
In addition, Tim Scharwath, CEO of freight forwarding giant DHL Global Freight Forwarding, also attended the meeting. What the two CEOs have in common is that they agree that 2020 is characterized by great unpredictability, such as promising customers whether their goods will reach their destinations on time, which is very unpredictable.
As time goes by and the year is coming to an end, shippers have to pay more and more freight to ship the goods. This development is largely due to the sharp increase in demand month by month since July. For example, it is not uncommon to have to pay US$5,000 for shipping containers from Hong Kong to New York.
▍It will not stabilize until the second half of 2021
The two executives agreed that after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia this spring, the very special environment has caused a historic imbalance between supply and demand. They also believe that the shipping market will not stabilize for the time being.
Scharwath said: "As for shipping, I think we must enter the second half of 2021 before we see the market stabilize again. The first quarter will definitely be affected, and so will the second quarter."
"We will have to wait and see what happens, because everything is difficult to predict. As a large company, we usually make plans for 3 to 5 years. Now, we are making plans for 3 months."
Inadequate ship capacity and insufficient containers have serious consequences for the industry’s supply chain. In addition to customer dishonesty and record high freight rates, a recent survey conducted by Sea-Intelligence shows that only half of the ships can reach their destinations on time .
▍Shipping companies strengthen management and control
Mainly affected by the new crown epidemic, container shipping companies’ performance in the second quarter was weak, but their profits have soared to record levels since the summer. However, the quality of service is lacking, and container shipping companies have been stating for months that these conditions are beyond the scope that they can change.
On the one hand, they do not have more ships to deploy, on the other hand, they cannot redistribute the containers to the required ports. In addition to other reasons, customers do not return the goods.
Currently, Asia in particular is suffering from a shortage of containers because many containers are in the United States. According to a Bloomberg report, it may also be because of port congestion that these containers cannot be unloaded at US ports. This is the case with 20 container ships currently near the Port of Long Beach.
Therefore, at the beginning of December, CMA CGM, Maersk and ONE had to refuse to leave the booking outside of Asia, the reason is very simple, because there is no extra space on board.
Hapag-Lloyd, led by Habben Jansen, also benefited from the increase in freight rates in recent months. Therefore, the shipping company has twice raised its full-year 2020 profit forecast, and the company currently expects its operating results to exceed US$2.7 billion.
However, the CEO said that it is usually because of an oversupply of ships, and 10 years after the industry has lost billions of dollars, it is time for container shipping companies to start making money.
▍Strong performance in the second quarter of next year
Until recently, shipping companies and container manufacturers also predicted that the current shortage of containers will be resolved after the Chinese New Year in February, which will restore the market to a more normal state. But Habben Jansen no longer believes this prediction is correct.
"This year’s development is beyond everyone’s expectations. Because of the introduction of economic stimulus measures, people still have money on hand, and most of the money has been spent on container cargo. Many signs indicate that the strong market we see after the Spring Festival has passed. It will appear and will continue into the second quarter."
Habben Jansen pointed out that the current market congestion will take some time to resolve.
