The latest data show that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue until at least next year

The latest report released by the shipping consulting agency Sea Intelligence shows that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue this year, at least until January next year.

The biggest problem facing the container shipping industry is that some key regions, especially Asia, are facing a serious shortage of empty containers.

The short interest of empty containers is also the main reason that pushes the spot container freight market to historical highs, and it is also the main reason why shippers who want to be able to ship their products in time are very annoyed.

Some reports pointed out that due to the shortage of empty containers, the current impact on domestic exports has emerged.

Investment securities noted in exports , China's exports of most goods were transported by sea containers . The greater the export freight volume, the greater the demand for containers and the higher the freight rate. The freight rate index is consistent with the export year-on-year trend.

This year, SCFI began to increase prices at the end of May, matching the time when the European and American economies were unblocked. That is, the demand for Chinese goods increased after overseas unblocking, corresponding to the positive export growth rate from June; and the SCFI price increase has accelerated significantly. At the beginning of November, the export growth rate in November increased by 9.7 percentage points to 21.1%. From this perspective, based on SCFI's repeated record highs since December, exports remain strong in the short term.

 

The latest data show that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue until at least next year

 

 

On the supply side , under the high trade surplus, empty containers have been left without return, which has exacerbated the shortage of containers.

The China Container Industry Association stated that the average turnaround time of containers in China has jumped from 60 days to 100 days due to the reduction of capacity in the United States and Europe due to the virus, which has exacerbated the shortage of containers in China .

Some US importers have stated that they cannot receive the goods on time during the November-December shopping season. This will result in companies unable to deliver enough goods to meet consumer demand during local holidays.

Faced with this important problem of serious shortage of containers, I believe that the highest priority for everyone in the industry (consolidation industry, foreign trade industry) must be: when can the problem of container equipment shortage be solved?

In the latest market report, the shipping consulting agency Sea Intelligence modeled the overall state of the market based on advanced regional data. Through the estimation of the global container pool and global shipments, the base time required for a container to be loaded in Asia, complete its voyage, and to be loaded again in Asia is determined. Then, use Container Trade Statistics (CTS) demand data and Asia's potential empty container buffer inventory to supplement the explanation, and finally achieve the purpose of calculating the availability of empty containers in Asia.

 

The latest data show that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue until at least next year

By simulating 4 different strategies for the carrier (shipping company, etc.) to potentially solve the shortage of empty containers:

(1) Do not take any measures against the shortage of empty containers;

(2) Actively relocate empty containers on routes exported to Asia;

(3) Inject new containers to reduce the current burden;

(4) Operators actively take measures to reposition the containers and inject new containers.

The figure above outlines these strategies and their resulting impact on the availability of empty containers in Asia.

Given the above data model, SeaIntelligence pointed out that the only possible solution to this problem in January is when the shipping company has to purchase new containers and actively reschedule the return of empty containers . In fact, major shipping companies are also actively pursuing and attempting to implement strategies.

However, Sea Intelligence stated that this strategy will also cause serious problems for return shippers.

The market is therefore faced with a severe choice-either the carrier pursues the current strategy to achieve the goal of solving the container shortage in January next year, or the shipping company reduces their aggressive container repositioning strategy for the benefit of return shippers. But the result will be that the shortage of empty space will last at least until February next year, or even longer.

The latest data show that the shortage of empty containers in Asian ports will continue until at least next year

Shipping companies suspend bookings for Asia-Europe heading

With the lack of empty containers, shipping companies also feel that they have more than enough energy. Some shipping companies have to reduce or suspend bookings for a period of time in the future.

Not long ago, CMA CGM, the world’s fourth-largest container shipping company, announced that it would stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe in the next three weeks. Specifically, the company temporarily suspended the 49th, 50th and 51st week of this year’s Asia-Northern Europe route. Booking.

Then, according to the Danish shipping media shippingwatch, Maersk and ONE also said recently that they had to refuse some inquiries.

The world’s largest shipping company Maersk stated in a written reply to the media, “The current situation in Asia is very tense. Due to the large backlog of containers, we have reduced the short-term cargo orders in the last few weeks of December to a minimum, and Several voyages had to be stopped (reservations accepted)."

Singapore-based ONE Shipping said that the current industry is developing very fast, and the company is no longer able to accept goods transferred from other container companies.

In reply to the shipping company, the company wrote: "It is impossible to accept new transfers from other shipping companies, but we can basically meet the needs of existing customers without any substantial cancellation of bookings."

The two-way backlog of China-Europe freight trains has stopped loading export goods! Shipping costs soared 5 times!

A China-Europe Express platform company said that since the beginning of this year, the shipment volume of China-Europe Express Express has continued to increase, but the limited port operation capacity, coupled with the impact of border epidemic prevention and control and other factors, has caused a large amount of cargo to be backlogged at the port. "From the second half of this year, At the beginning, some ports experienced serious congestion. With the increase in freight demand at the end of the year, congestion has become more serious recently."

Against the background of "extreme" demand and lack of equipment, the price of freight transport by China-Europe railway has jumped fivefold . In addition, the backlog of containers on the border between China and Kazakhstan (Alashankou and Khorgos) prompted the temporary suspension of some westbound services.

 

The two-way backlog of China-Europe freight trains has stopped loading export goods!  Shipping costs soared 5 times!

 

 

GEODIS, a leading French logistics company, told its customers: “The space on the westbound is very tight. According to the availability of venues and equipment, delivery is accepted according to the company’s reservations. “Since the westbound service has a very large demand for space, we require Check all possible bookings one by one. "

With air and sea transportation restricted, railway traffic is approaching full capacity, and the delays on the China-Kazakhstan border have exacerbated traffic congestion. According to Rob Foster, business development manager for Norman Global Logistics Central and North China, the main problem is traffic congestion, not service suspension. He said that "the border has a large backlog of goods, and the railway transportation company cannot handle the volume of trucks." "In the first week of December, the westbound price per 40-foot high container ranged from US$6,000 to US$10,000, four or five times that of the same period last year. Shipping companies would not even guarantee to provide space at such a price. " "Serious shortage of equipment . " It is also a key issue , especially outside of China.

 

The two-way backlog of China-Europe freight trains has stopped loading export goods!  Shipping costs soared 5 times!

 

 

"By manipulating the ocean freight market, shipping companies have caused this problem to a large extent, affecting all services. For several months, airlines have been operating small ships, coupled with suspension of services, slowly forming pressure. Rail transport companies There are some containers, but there are still many containers that are leased."

He pointed out that in recent years, there has been an "explosive growth" in train services, which has increased from a few times a week to a few hundred times a month, putting considerable pressure on the railway network. In fact, taking Alashankou as an example, the latest data shows that this year's railway transmission volume has increased by 42% to 4,500 times, and the entire China-Europe railway network has sent more than 10,000 times.

In response to the current serious backlog of ports, the National Railway Group issued dispatch orders this month:

Dispatch order:

• Issued on November 22: From 22 to 25, shipments of outbound goods via Alashankou and Horgos except for the China-Europe Express will be suspended.

  Issued on December 8th: From 8th to 13th, all kinds of goods exported to Erlian and Alashankou will be suspended. If there are key materials, they must be reported to the National Railway Group.

  Issued on December 13th: From 13th to 16th, cargoes exported to Manzhouli, Erlian and Alashankou will be suspended (except for the scheduled train).

  Re-delivery on December 16th: From 18:00 on the 16th to 18:00 on the 19th, all kinds of goods exported to Manzhouli and Alashankou except for the scheduled China-Europe Express train will stop loading.

On December 12, the National Railway Group responded to the recent congestion of the China-Europe Express, saying that the port handover capacity has indeed declined recently, and some corridors have moved slowly. The National Railway Group said this is due to the approach of Christmas in the West. The demand is strong, and the epidemic prevention and control measures at port stations have been strengthened, as a result of factors such as bad weather overseas. The railway department has taken measures to carry out source regulation and deconstruction, and adopt phased capacity regulation measures; at the same time, implement capacity expansion and transformation at Khorgos, Erlianhot and other ports to improve handover capabilities; strengthen international coordination and cooperation. China National Railway Group stated that the above measures have effectively relieved port congestion. China National Railway Group requires that China-Europe Express trains will not be suspended or installed during this period.

The above-mentioned China-Europe Express platform company said that a train from China to Europe needs to be changed twice in the middle. The first time was when China exited the CIS countries or Mongolia, the standard gauge (1435) Cm) car plate, replaced by a wide gauge (1520 cm) car plate, the second change is to go from Russia westbound to Europe, and then change from the wide gauge car plate to the standard gauge car plate, the smooth operation of the train needs Close cooperation with countries along the way.

"Because the trains on the outbound journey are blocked at the port, and there are no trains on the return journey to pick up the containers, once congestion occurs, it will be two-way." The above-mentioned person said.

 

The two-way backlog of China-Europe freight trains has stopped loading export goods!  Shipping costs soared 5 times!

A freight forwarder engaged in the China-Europe freight train business in Central Asia also told a reporter from China Business News that the limited number of railway infrastructure and loading and unloading equipment in some Central Asian countries and the low level of dispatching are one of the important reasons for congestion. For example, the number of wide-gauge car plates in Kazakhstan is much lower than that of Chinese ports. After the car plates are dispatched to Europe, Kazakhstan's own ports face the problem of insufficient car plates.

Regarding the reasons for the increasing demand for China-Europe Express, an international logistics company said that under the impact of the epidemic, air freight prices have skyrocketed, and shipping companies have reduced the number of ocean freighters and the number of ports of call. The convenience and effectiveness are greatly reduced. Rail freight has become the choice of more and more customers. "Air transport capacity is limited, and freight is high. Maritime transport involves crew quarantine, cargo handling and other links, frequent personnel contacts, which were greatly affected during the epidemic. Many goods originally transported by air and sea were transferred to rail transportation, which led to the beginning of February this year. , The volume of China-Europe express trains continues to grow."

The data released by China Railway Group also showed that as of November 5, the number of China-Europe freight trains in 2020 has reached 10,180, which has exceeded the number of trains in the whole year of last year, transporting 927,000 TEUs of goods, an increase of 54% year-on-year. In November this year, the China-Europe freight train continued to operate at a high level, with 1,238 trains operating 115,000 TEUs, an increase of 64% and 73% year-on-year respectively, and the comprehensive heavy container rate reached 98.8%.

note! Epidemics in Europe and America continue to fight back! London’s highest level of blockade, New York or all blockade! The end of the port delay is suspended!

Winter is coming, Europe and the United States continue to fight back against the epidemic! The most advanced blockade in London, England, or full blockade in New York!

The continuation of the new crown epidemic has caused shipping companies to continue to face port backlogs and ship delays. The tail-end logistics delivery also depends on luck. International supply chains are becoming increasingly tense and global trade is facing the risk of disruption.

Epidemics in Europe and America counterattack menacingly

According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 7:27 on the 16th Beijing time, there were 73,365,192 confirmed cases of new crowns worldwide, and 1,632,554 deaths. The United States is still the most severely affected country in the world, with 16,677,333 confirmed cases and 303,046 deaths.

▍London enters the highest level of blockade again, and the port is still heavily congested

It has been less than two weeks before Christmas, and people are shopping and preparing for the holiday enthusiastically. However, the epidemic in Europe has raised concerns again at this time.

The British epidemic is already a real rebound!

 

note!  Epidemics in Europe and America continue to fight back!  London's highest level of blockade, New York or all blockade!  The end of the port delay is suspended!

 

 

According to the latest epidemic report, there were 18,450 newly diagnosed cases in the UK in a single day, and a total of 1,869,666 confirmed cases; 506 new deaths in a single day, and a total of 64,908 deaths.

 

note!  Epidemics in Europe and America continue to fight back!  London's highest level of blockade, New York or all blockade!  The end of the port delay is suspended!

 

 

note!  Epidemics in Europe and America continue to fight back!  London's highest level of blockade, New York or all blockade!  The end of the port delay is suspended!
Infection in London

On the afternoon of the 14th, the British Secretary of Health Hancock officially announced in the House of Commons that London, the west and south of Essex, and the south of Hertfordshire will be upgraded to the strictest level three lockdown from Wednesday (16th). .

 

note!  Epidemics in Europe and America continue to fight back!  London's highest level of blockade, New York or all blockade!  The end of the port delay is suspended!

After the escalation of the Level 3 lockdown in London, the following measures need to be strictly observed:

• Bars, restaurants, and cafes are closed, and only take-out and delivery services are reserved;

  Shops, gyms, and barber shops can continue to be open;

  People are not allowed to socialize with people from other families indoors, private gardens or most outdoor public places;

  Up to 6 people can socialize outdoors;

  Fans are once again prohibited from entering football fields and other stadiums;

  Cinemas and bowling alleys are closed;

  People are advised not to go to the tertiary lockdown zone.

British Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned on Wednesday that according to current trends, the government will have to take stricter measures in the capital to effectively limit the spread of the new crown virus.

The Mayor of London warned that “if London enters the third level of lockdown, it will be catastrophic for those industries that have been severely affected by the new crown pandemic.”

note!  Epidemics in Europe and America continue to fight back!  London's highest level of blockade, New York or all blockade!  The end of the port delay is suspended!

Although London was initially listed as a “second-tier lockdown” city when the nationwide blockade measures were lifted on December 2, London’s current level of restrictions will be reassessed next week, just as the relaxation of Christmas regulations is coming A few days before it becomes effective.

In addition, severe congestion in most ports in the UK has forced several shipping companies to impose congestion surcharges and cancel some flights.

British importers are currently facing major challenges, and the shipping division of the Ocean Alliance decided to transfer the other five ships that arrived in Felixstowe in December to Zeebrugge, Belgium. Cosco Shipping Azalea, Ever Goods, Ever Globe, CSCL Jupiter and CSCL Uranus will no longer call at Felixstowe, and will unload British imports at Belgian ports.

British ports continued to increase congestion, 2M abandoned Felixstowe and switched to Liverpool, and major shipping companies cancelled berthing at hub ports. Starting from the end of this year, the 2M Alliance has replaced the Port of Felixstowe with the Port of Liverpool on its TA2/NEUATL2 ring route across the Atlantic.

In addition, in front of the cargo entrance of the Eurotunnel in the Port of Dover in the UK, trucks waiting in line to enter were parked, and the congestion continued for several kilometers.

note!  Epidemics in Europe and America continue to fight back!  London's highest level of blockade, New York or all blockade!  The end of the port delay is suspended!

▍New York City in the United States may be completely blocked, 23 container ships are waiting at anchorage in California

On December 14, local time, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (Bill de Blasio) said that due to the deterioration of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, there is a possibility of a complete lockdown in New York City.

He said that since May, he has never seen the current level of new coronavirus infections. Action must be taken to stop this growth momentum. The number one job at present is to protect the health and safety of residents.

In an interview with CNN, Bai Sihao said: “We must start to close the most sensitive areas.” When asked about possible lockdown measures, he said, “I think we must be prepared in the next few weeks to deal with the current new crown pneumonia. With the momentum of the epidemic, we must stop it before it causes too much damage and too much pain."

New York Governor Cuomo pointed out that on Monday, a total of 5,712 patients with COVID-19 were treated in hospitals across New York State. At the peak of the spring, more than 18,000 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized.

Both de Blasio and Cuomo agreed to ban indoor dining in New York City from Monday to curb the surge in hospital admissions. However, they are divided on the circumstances under which they will issue the city-wide blockade order.

note!  Epidemics in Europe and America continue to fight back!  London's highest level of blockade, New York or all blockade!  The end of the port delay is suspended!

According to the latest data released by the Port of Los Angeles, the port's container throughput in November increased by 22% year-on-year to more than 889,000 TEUs. Gene Seroka, executive director of the port, said that every part of the logistics supply chain of major ports around the world is still under constant tension.

On Tuesday, 15 container ships berthed at the Port of Los Angeles, but there were 23 more anchored at the anchored San Pedro Bay. Of these, 14 will go to berth in Los Angeles and 9 will go to berth at Long Beach Port.

It also introduced, “The stay time of containers at the terminal remains at about 5 days, which is twice as long as before the surge in imports in the summer. However, the average waiting time for warehouses and storage space is currently only 6.3 days compared to 7.1 days in October. Get better."

"The situation at the anchorage is currently a real concern for all of us. Many ships currently need to anchor and enter a waiting mode before berthing," Seroka continued. In November, 50 of the 88 ships that arrived in Los Angeles had to drop anchor first, with an average berthing time of two and a half days. So far in December, about 80% of arriving ships will drop anchor first. Now the waiting time has increased to 4 days. "

▍Germany issued the strictest blockade order 

On the 13th local time, the German Federation and the state governments agreed to further tighten the epidemic prevention and control measures from the 16th until January 10, 2021.

Retail stores except for food and essential daily necessities will be closed;

Schools and kindergartens will stop teaching face-to-face courses, but will provide distance education;

Business employers should provide employees with vacation or home office solutions.

According to the media, the strength of this "hard blockade order" is almost equal to that of the "wide blockade."

In addition, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that Germany will face a new peak of new crown infections next month, which makes people suspect that the hard blockade imposed on Wednesday may not end in early January as originally planned. It is reported that German law requires the government to re-evaluate the nationwide blockade every four weeks.

DHL suspends services in 12 European countries

The current logistics situation really puts some cargo owners in trouble. According to freight forwarders, Hong Kong DHL standard channels have added 6 countries with 0-5KG parcels suspended for shipping services.

The six countries are the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Finland, Turkey, and Bulgaria. In addition to the previously suspended countries-Austria, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Romania, and Nigeria, 12 countries have suspended delivery services.

Congestion and delays in UPS, FedEx and FBA are commonplace. Now even USPS has been complained by sellers that USPS delays have ruined Christmas.

Many sellers abroad have begun to complain about the surge in USPS delays, leading to a surge in complaints from buyers. There are even eBay sellers that have started a holiday mode and plan to return to sell after January.

According to foreign media reports, outside the United States Post Office on Broadway, USPS delivery trucks are already in long queues. A truck driver has been waiting for 16 hours to unload the truck’s packages. Finally, after many round trips, they waited for two. After a day and a half, the USPS truck driver was finally able to unload his cargo.

note!  Epidemics in Europe and America continue to fight back!  London's highest level of blockade, New York or all blockade!  The end of the port delay is suspended!

Outbreaks in other countries

Japan : In view of the continuing deterioration of the epidemic, the Japanese government announced on the evening of the 14th that it will temporarily suspend travel subsidies aimed at encouraging consumption across the country. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on the evening of the 14th that from December 28 to January 11, 2021, the country will suspend the "go travel" tourism subsidy program, and the government will compensate the operators for some of the losses.

Netherlands : In view of the rapid development of the new crown epidemic, Dutch Prime Minister Rutte made a television speech on the 14th, announcing that it will comprehensively upgrade prevention and control measures, including closing schools, closing "non-essential" stores, avoiding unnecessary travel, and working from home as much as possible. 

Singapore : Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong delivered a national speech on the 14th, announcing that Singapore will enter the third phase of relaxation of epidemic control measures on December 28. Singapore’s anti-epidemic inter-departmental working group further explained that starting from December 28, the government will further relax restrictions on the flow of people in shopping malls and retail stores, and tourist attractions can also apply to increase passenger capacity. In addition, the government has increased the maximum number of attendees for indoor and outdoor live performances to 250 people.

Palestine : Palestinian Prime Minister Ashtiye said on the 14th that whether to receive the new crown vaccine depends on personal wishes, and the Palestinian government will not force people to receive the new crown vaccine. The new crown vaccine is expected to begin to arrive in Palestine at the beginning of next year, when medical staff and the elderly will be given priority.

Rwanda : Rwanda’s Ministry of Health, Daniel N’gamij, said on the 13th that while the country’s current confirmed cases of new crowns have surged, the number of deaths has also increased, and the Rwanda epidemic has entered a “dangerous stage”. He called on all people to comply with the new crown epidemic prevention measures and avoid going to crowded places and participating in social gatherings when unnecessary.

Lack of cabinets? These container loading skills must get!

When the general enterprise exports, the main concern during the loading process is the error of the goods data, the damage of the goods and the data inconsistent with the customs declaration data, which will cause the customs to not release.

Therefore, before loading, the shipper, warehouse, and freight forwarder must coordinate and considerately to avoid this situation. The following is an explanation of the skills of container loading.

Precautions for mixing

When the general enterprise exports, the main concern during the loading process is the error of the goods data, the damage of the goods and the data inconsistent with the customs declaration data, which will cause the customs to not release. Therefore, before loading, the shipper, warehouse, and freight forwarder must coordinate and considerately to avoid this situation.

1. Goods with different shapes and different packages should not be packed together as much as possible;

2. Goods that will seep dust, liquid, moisture, odor, etc. from the package should not be placed with other goods as much as possible. "If there is a last resort, they must be separated by canvas, plastic film or other materials.

3. Light goods are placed on top of relatively heavy goods;

4. Goods with weak packing strength should be placed on top of goods with strong packing strength;

5. Liquid goods and clean goods should be placed under other goods as far as possible;

6. Goods with sharp corners or protruding parts should be covered to avoid damage to other goods.

Container loading skills

There are usually three methods for on-site packing operations of containerized goods: that is, all the boxes are packed by manpower, moved into the box by forklift ) The goods are stacked in the box with a forklift truck.

1. In any case, when goods are loaded into a container, the weight of the goods in the box cannot exceed the maximum load capacity of the container, that is, the total amount of the container minus the self-weight of the container. Under normal circumstances, the total weight and dead weight will be marked on the door of the container.

2. The unit weight of each container is fixed, so when loading the same kind of goods in the box, as long as you know the density of the goods, you can determine whether it is heavy or light. If the density of the goods is greater than the unit weight of the box, it is considered heavy, otherwise, it is considered light. Timely and clearly distinguishing these two different situations is very important to improve packing efficiency.

3. When loading, balance the load on the bottom of the box, especially strictly prohibiting the load center of gravity on one end.

4. Avoid generating concentrated loads. "For example, when loading heavy goods such as machinery and equipment, the bottom of the box should be covered with padding materials such as wooden boards to spread the load as much as possible. The average safe load per unit area on the bottom of a standard container is roughly: 1330x9.8N/m for a 20-foot container, 40 feet The container is 980x9.8N/m2.

 

5. When using manual loading, pay attention to whether there are loading and unloading indication signs such as "not upside down", "flat", "vertical", etc. on the package. Be sure to use the loading tools correctly. Hand hooks are prohibited for bundled goods. The goods in the box should be neatly and tightly packed. For goods that are easy to be loosely bundled and packaged with fragile packaging, use pads or insert plywood between the goods to prevent the goods from moving in the box.

6. When loading pallet cargo, it is necessary to accurately grasp the internal dimensions of the container and the external dimensions of the cargo packaging in order to calculate the number of pieces to be loaded, so as to achieve the purpose of minimizing abandonment and loading more cargo.

7. When using a forklift truck to load the box, it will be restricted by the free lifting height of the machinery and the height of the mast. Therefore, if conditions permit, the forklift can load two layers at a time, but there must be a certain gap between the top and bottom. If the conditions do not allow loading two layers at a time, when installing the second layer, considering the free lifting height of the forklift truck and the height that the forklift truck mast may lift, the mast lifting height should be the first The height of the first floor minus the free lifting height, so that the second floor can be loaded on the upper floor of the third floor.

In addition, a general forklift truck with a lifting capacity of 2 tons is generally used, and its free lifting height is about 1250px. But there is also a fork-lift truck with full free lifting height. This kind of machinery is not affected by the lifting height of the mast as long as the height of the box allows it, and it can easily stack two layers of goods. In addition, it should also be noted that there should be skids under the cargo so that the fork can be pulled out smoothly.

Finally, it’s best not to pack the goods naked, at least with packaging, and don’t blindly save space and cause damage to the goods. General goods will also be packaged. Only large machines such as boilers and building materials will be more troublesome. They must be tied up and tied tightly to prevent loosening. In fact, as long as you are careful, there won't be too many problems.

Drewry: The shortage of containers is not the lack of equipment

The research of De Luli Company shows that the shortage of usable containers faced by cargo owners is mainly due to operation, rather than lack of equipment.

In early 2020, some factories in China were closed due to the epidemic, and the number of containers in circulation has declined, but the decline in container shipments has been even greater. De Luli said:

By the end of 2020, the number of global marine container equipment is expected to drop by 1.1% to 39.9 million TEU, and the global container port throughput is expected to drop by 3.3% in 2020 . The two are not synchronized .

In the second half of 2020, container trade volume has risen sharply. With the increase in e-commerce activities after the closure of large consumer markets, demand has rebounded. A key indicator for measuring the availability of container equipment- the ratio of port throughput to each container is only 20 in the second half of 2020. This figure is in line with historical trends and indicates that there are enough containers to meet cargo demand .

Drewry believes that there are two reasons for the current shortage of boxes:

First, in the second quarter, due to sluggish demand, a large number of suspensions made the distribution of containers more uneven, and the weakening of liquidity made some ports' containers remain vacant;

Second, the unbalanced global economic recovery has resulted in an unbalanced shipping volume on routes, and the surge in freight demand has stimulated investment in new container equipment.

De Lori said: "Global container production shrank by 35% in the first quarter, while the container manufacturing industry has recovered by the end of the year. It is expected that container production will reach 2.7 million TEUs in 2020, a 5% drop from 2019."

Large operators are also increasing container equipment. Maersk stated in its third quarter report that it would invest in building more containers instead of ships; Hapag-Lloyd added about 250,000 TEU of equipment this year; CMA CGM increased 8.7% in the second half of the year. container. The increase in demand has pushed up container prices. In October, the price of a 20-foot TEU has reached US$2,650. It is expected that prices will rise further, and container leasing fees will continue to increase accordingly.

The shipping price of some parts of Asia-Europe exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and the shipping company levies a new round of surcharges. Shippers are facing challenges in the contract season!

In 2020, global shipping logistics started as a nightmare due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, but at the end of the year it ushered in unprecedented popularity. The price of container transportation has been rising for several consecutive months, and the current freight rate can be described as "rising every day"...

The spot freight rate from Asia to Northern Europe is at a record high, and the annual contract price is expected to rise sharply. The impact of the new epidemic lockdown measures on sales, shippers have increased concerns about soaring freight and surcharges, which may lead to next year The wave of order cancellations.

Asia-Europe part of the freight rate exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and shippers face challenges in the Asia-Europe contract season

The freight forwarder stated that since Asia-Europe freight rates have increased by at least 5 times year-on-year, and the total freight rates of some goods have exceeded US$10,000/FEU, shippers are delaying or canceling shipments before the freight rates are adjusted.

The Shanghai Container Freight Index shows that in the week ending December 11, spot freight rates in Asia and Europe increased 24% from the previous week to US$2,948 per TEU. However, freight forwarders stated that the index reflects market conditions incompletely, and shippers’ quotations exceeded $10000/FEU.

A source said: "We are beginning to see customers canceling reservations because the prices are too high."

The shipping price of some parts of Asia-Europe exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and the shipping company levies a new round of surcharges. Shippers are facing challenges in the contract season!

Shipping from China to the UK in January, the shipping company is now quoting 10,000 US dollars / 40'HC at sight, the source said: "I heard that the price is 13,500 US dollars."

In addition to the additional costs of shipping companies, including the increase in scheduled cancellation fees, freight forwarders worry that customers will refuse or fail to pay all the additional costs caused by the interruption of the supply chain.

European shippers are preparing for the upcoming contract season and have issued warnings to shipping companies that they will take further action if they try to maintain this year’s sharply increased rates.

The freight from Asia to Europe is as high as US$10,000/FEU, including various surcharges currently applicable to the industry. The Global Shippers Forum (GSF) said that due to “overpriced”, many shippers are currently not delivering goods at all. Small and medium-sized companies cannot pay additional fees.

GSF Secretary General James Hookham said: “The shipper cannot afford the various increased rates and therefore loses business.”

Freight rates in Europe and East Asia continue to rise

▍Maersk announced new fees in Europe and East Asia from December to next year

Maersk announced a new peak season surcharge (PSS), which applies to refrigerated goods from the Far East to Northern and Southern European countries. The surcharge will be $1,000 / 20' reefer container, $1,500 / 40' reefer container, effective from December 15th, and Taiwan will be effective from January 1, 2021.

In addition, since December 1, MSC has implemented PSS of US$500/20' and US$750/40' for all dry goods from the UK, Ireland, Northern Spain, Portugal and the Baltic Sea to the Far East.

In addition, MSC has adjusted the following rates starting from December 1, 2020 until further notice, but not exceeding December 31, 2020.

The shipping price of some parts of Asia-Europe exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and the shipping company levies a new round of surcharges. Shippers are facing challenges in the contract season!

▍Hapag-Lloyd announced to increase the surcharge from Asia to many places in Europe

A few days ago, Hapag-Lloyd announced new prices from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean, which will take effect on January 1, 2021.

The shipping price of some parts of Asia-Europe exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and the shipping company levies a new round of surcharges. Shippers are facing challenges in the contract season!

The shipping price of some parts of Asia-Europe exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and the shipping company levies a new round of surcharges. Shippers are facing challenges in the contract season!

The shipping price of some parts of Asia-Europe exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and the shipping company levies a new round of surcharges. Shippers are facing challenges in the contract season!

The shipping price of some parts of Asia-Europe exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and the shipping company levies a new round of surcharges. Shippers are facing challenges in the contract season!

Hapag-Lloyd also issued a new general tax rate increase (GRI) for all dry containers, reefer containers, non-operational reefer containers, storage tanks, flat racks and open-top containers from South Asia and Northeast Asia to Australia , since January 1. Effective.

Southeast Asia to Australia

US $ 150/20'

US $ 300/40'

Northeast Asia to Australia

US $ 300/20'

US $ 600/40'

From December 7th, Hapag-Lloyd will implement another GRI for all goods and all types of containers from East Asia to the East Coast of South America at USD 550 per container.

At the same time, Hapag-Lloyd announced that it will postpone the GRI implemented in eastbound trade from East Asia to all destinations in the United States and Canada on December 1, and the new effective date is January 1, 2021.

This general rate increase is applicable to all dry goods, refrigerated cabinets, non-operational refrigerated cabinets, storage tanks, pallets and open top containers. Details are as follows:

East Asia to North America (United States and Canada)

US$960/20'

US$1200/40'

East Asia includes countries/regions in Japan, South Korea, China, China/Taiwan, China/Hong Kong, China/Macau, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines, and Russia’s Pacific Rim provinces.

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy! The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%! Container freight soared and hit a new high!

In response to the current serious shortage of containers in the Asian market, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Habben Jansen recently stated that “the congestion of the port and the strong demand in the market have caused the increase in traffic to exacerbate this problem. This kind of tension will continue for another 6-8 weeks. It will be alleviated.” The pressure on the supply chain caused by the shortage of containers in Asia will continue for at least another 6-8 weeks, which means that shortages will still be faced in the next two months, which will also affect shipments before the Spring Festival.

Container freight rates continue to soar, reaching high levels far above the long-term sustainable level. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) set a record of 2131.71 points, an increase of 162% over the same period last year. After experiencing a sharp increase in freight rates that initially lags behind the Pan-Pacific region, spot freight rates in northern Europe have soared up 230% compared to the same period last year. Moreover, the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high cabinet.

 

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

According to the shipping index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange in the latest issue, the overall export container shipping market in China remains high. The freight rates of most ocean routes operated steadily, and some increased significantly, and the composite index rose. On December 11, Shanghai's comprehensive export container freight index was 2311.71 points, an increase of 8.6% over the previous period.

 

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

Asia to Europe (Far East Europe Mediterranean route) : Near the end of the year, the volume of the European market remains high. The recurrence of the epidemic has also stimulated the growth of local import demand and strong transportation demand. The lack of containers in the market also affects European routes. Strong market demand and severe equipment shortages are expected to continue after the Spring Festival in 2021.

Last week, the average occupancy utilization rate of ships in Shanghai Port remained at the full level. Affected by this, most airlines increased their freight rates sharply in the middle of the month, and the spot market booking prices rose sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the European basic port market was US$2,948/TEU, an increase of 24.2% from the previous period. In the Mediterranean route , the market situation is basically the same as that in Europe, and the spot market freight rate has risen sharply. On December 11, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the Mediterranean basic port market was 3073 US dollars/TEU, breaking the 3000 US dollars mark, an increase of 28.9% from the previous period.

 

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

 

 

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

However, there is news that the actual freight paid by the shipper is much higher in order to ensure the container and the final remaining European space . Lars Jensen of SeaIntelligence said that there is anecdotal evidence that the exact freight paid by shippers on the Asia-Northern Europe trade route may be as high as US$5,000 per TEU. Jensen explained: “In this case, it’s important to note that in some cases, SCFI underestimates the actual freight paid because there are additional costs related to equipment and space availability.”

A British freight forwarding company confirmed to The Loadstar that the freight quotation in Asia and Northern Europe has reached US$10,000 per 40-foot high container . "It's crazy," he said.

At the same time, all carriers will raise GRI again on December 15 . The current extreme shortage of 40-foot high cabinets suggests that alternative alternatives will continue to increase in freight rates this week; it is worth noting that due to port congestion and limited land capacity, cargo to the UK is subject to many restrictions, and delays and operational problems are expected. Some carriers stopped accepting bookings sent to the UK.

Due to the strong demand for containers and the backlog in recent weeks. CMA CMA CGM notified that it will temporarily stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe, that is, temporarily suspend bookings for the 49th, 50th and 51st week Asia-Northern Europe routes. Another shipping company recently told Asia-Northern Europe customers that if the shipment is cancelled within two weeks after the shipment date, it hopes to charge a fee of US$1,000 per TEU.

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

Asia to North America (trans-Pacific eastbound route): The US epidemic is showing a trend of major outbreaks, with new cases hitting new highs in a single day. Severe epidemics have caused frequent port congestion and blocked transit. The problem of equipment imbalance in Asia continues, and supply and demand are severely unbalanced. Ningbo Port, ports in Southeast Asia and Busan Port are the loading ports with the most serious equipment shortages. The carrier's cargo backlog has become more serious, and it is increasingly difficult to book containers.

Last week, the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to West and East US routes remained close to the full load level. The freight rate is high and stable, and the spot market booking price is basically the same as the previous period. SCFI data shows that the spot freight rate from Shanghai to the east coast of the United States increased by 104 U.S. dollars to 4804 U.S. dollars per FEU, an increase of 91% over the same period last year, while the freight rate to the U.S. West Coast was basically the same at 3,984 U.S. dollars/FEU. Nevertheless, it has increased by 188% compared to the same period last year.

There does not appear to be any sign of slowing down in freight volumes to the West Coast of the United States. The Port of Los Angeles expects that containers will increase by 48% and 44% in the next two weeks. The Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals are under tremendous pressure due to the sharp increase in throughput. According to forecasts, the total volume of the Port of Los Angeles in the fourth quarter will increase by 40% year-on-year, exceeding 850,000 TEUs. Ships are waiting at the anchorage in San Pedro Bay for a long time. 6 days.

There is another shipping cost of 10,000 US dollars, which is crazy!  The freight rate of the European line increased by 230%!  Container freight soared and hit a new high!

Jon Monroe of Jon Monroe Consulting, Washington State, said: "Consumer recovery is gaining momentum. Black Friday sales have grown strongly, up 21% from last year. If you have not ordered the goods shipped before the Lunar New Year, you may be too late. Up."

South American routes: The raging epidemic has affected the production capacity of South American countries, their dependence on foreign materials is high, and transportation demand has remained high. In this period, most of the average space utilization of ships in Shanghai Port is at the full load level. Near the middle of the month, most airlines increased their booking prices, and the spot market freight rates rose. On December 11, the freight rate (sea and ocean surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the South American basic port market was 5876 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 12.5% ​​from the previous period.

In other routes, SCFI's spot freight rates have risen almost across the board. For example, the freight rates from Asia to South Africa rose 15% this period to US$2,289 per TEU, an increase of 130% over the same period last year.

500 trucks have obtained cross-border permits, and road freight and multimodal transportation have become the choice of shippers in Southeast Asia

The demand for multimodal transport services in Southeast Asia is on the rise, and shippers want to avoid the unstable air and sea markets.

According to a report by logistics giant DHL Global Forwardng, the new crown epidemic has increased cross-border road freight.

Bruno Selmoni, vice president of DHL and head of road freight and multimodal transport in ASEAN and South Asia, said: "It has quickly become an alternative solution for transporting goods in the region."

500 trucks have obtained cross-border permits, and road freight and multimodal transportation have become the choice of shippers in Southeast Asia

He added: "The new crown epidemic has also made road freight an important part of multimodal transport." He pointed out that the road freight market is expected to achieve an annual growth of 8% in the next five years.

He said that, in fact, although road freight was previously only used for shorter routes, it is now also used for longer routes. For example, earlier this year, DHL used trucks for customers to transport goods from China to Sweden.

Another laboratory equipment manufacturer previously relied on air and sea transportation, but during the COVID-19 crisis, freight rates continued to rise and turned to multimodal transportation, including truck transportation from Singapore to Thailand.

DHL said that traditionally, retailers and manufacturers need to sign a contract for each model, and the goods are passed from one operator to another until they reach the customer. But this can be "troublesome" because the seller is responsible for all logistics and paperwork.

Multimodal transport "simplifies the problem" by moving from origin to destination under a single contract or bill of lading.

Selmoni said that even before the pandemic, multimodal transport has been actively developed because companies "are looking for alternatives to improve transportation time, increase cost efficiency and reduce environmental pollution." For example, DHL launched a multimodal transport service connecting Indonesia and the ASEAN road network last year, connecting to Singapore by barge or air.

At the same time, another factor that promotes regional multimodal transport is the ASEAN customs transit system.

“The ASEAN Ministry of Transport has approved up to 500 trucks to obtain cross-border permits,” Selmoni explained. “With permits, goods can be transported from the point of departure to the destination by the same truck, eliminating the need to transfer goods to local trucks at the border. ."

500 trucks have obtained cross-border permits, and road freight and multimodal transportation have become the choice of shippers in Southeast Asia

He also said that the "China plus one" procurement strategy, although not only a result of the new crown epidemic, may continue to promote the growth of roads and multimodal cargo throughout Southeast Asia.

"As the company expands production bases outside of China to promote intra-regional trade, all ASEAN countries have had a positive impact on this strategy."

"In key markets such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar, which are connected through the established road network, this situation is particularly delicate, and it is expanding to Indonesia, Laos and China."

U.S. parcel volume hit a record high! UPS, Amazon, etc. suspend aging guarantees and increase prices

"China Post Express": This is the peak shopping and express season in the United States. Although express companies say they have improved the efficiency of land transportation, observers and consumers still believe that as the number of packages reaches unprecedented heights, delays are inevitable .

U.S. parcel volume hit a record high!  UPS, Amazon, etc. suspend aging guarantees and increase prices

Recently, UPS announced that it will reduce its ground transportation time in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Seattle and Portland by one day. According to a report on the Loadstar website, the ground delivery time for the above-mentioned markets is generally 1-3 days. Since the first week of November, United Parcel has launched the "fastest ground transportation" upgrade service to create a service faster than its competitors. Therefore, the company has invested 750 million US dollars in advance and originally planned to invest next year. But analysts believe, express delivery companies are still unable to avoid speed courier companies due to excessive pressure and delay the knot fruit.

According to the above report, according to a report, UPS and FedEx have been coordinating the lack of transportation vehicles and seeking support from contractors to purchase or lease more vehicles. According to the research of LMCAutomotive Automotive Market Forecast Service, one of the reasons for the car shortage is due to the suspension of car production. In October, the number of new cars in the United States decreased by nearly 1 million compared with the same period last year.

Amazon, the e-commerce giant, is also struggling with the surge in the number of packages. Many customers have reported that it usually takes a week or more to send a package for one or two days. So Amazon encourages customers to choose other delivery methods instead of home delivery. Cathy Morrow Roberson, principal analyst at the consulting firm LogisticsTrends&Insights, believes that this means that Amazon cannot deliver on time by default. During the seasons, the time limit is never guaranteed. She noticed that as early as the beginning of the lockdown after the outbreak in the United States, the delivery company's service guarantee commitments had been suspended.

U.S. parcel volume hit a record high!  UPS, Amazon, etc. suspend aging guarantees and increase prices

According to a report published by LateShipment, an e-commerce package tracking company, on the Loadstar website, according to the results of the United Parcel and FedEx delay survey, California has the longest express delivery delays during the Christmas season in 2019, with major express delivery delays exceeding 12% . During this year’s outbreak, the two major express delivery giants also experienced a delay rate of about 10% in key cities such as California and New York. Robertson predicts that courier companies may prioritize hot-selling and profitable categories, while other shippers who want to ensure that products are delivered on time will need to pay additional fees to large courier companies because they have no choice of crowdsourced delivery.

There are also some retail companies looking for other outlets during the outbreak. They cooperate with Instacart and DoorDash to provide same-day delivery services to their customers. Robertson said the demand for home delivery has risen sharply this year, while last year consumers were more inclined to place orders online and pick up goods from stores. It is expected that in the coming weeks, retailers will look for alternatives to large courier companies. It is reported that although the number of consumers choosing express cabinets has increased, Americans still prefer to deliver them to their door.

It is reported that the United States Postal Service will increase the price of transportation services from January 24, 2021, but it still needs to obtain the approval of the Postal Administration Committee, the postal price control agency. Among them, priority mail will increase prices by 3.5%, and priority mail express will increase prices by 1.2%.

The U.S. Postal Service stated that the increase in postal prices is mainly based on changes in the consumer price index, while changes in postal service prices are mainly adjusted in accordance with changes in market conditions. "In industrialized countries, the U.S. Post's letter service is cheaper. Unlike other carriers, the U.S. Post does not charge fuel surcharges and door-to-door delivery or traditional Saturday delivery surcharges. Therefore, the new regulations increase letter fees. It can maintain the competitiveness of postal services and bring in more revenue.

According to the CEP-Research website, the price of United Parcel and FedEx in the U.S. land transportation increased by 4.9% in 2021. Since December 27 this year, non-contractual customers of UPS in the United States have to pay an average of 4.9% more for the ground, aviation and international services provided by it. FedEx will increase most of the U.S. express and land freight charges from January 4, 2021, by 4.9%.

At the beginning of December, Pitney Bowes, a provider of e-commerce, transportation and mail service solutions in the United States, also announced that starting from January 3, 2021, US domestic parcels weighing no less than 1 pound or cross-border exports to 207 countries or regions Courier services will increase prices by 5.9%, and domestic return services will increase prices by 4.9%.

In addition, according to foreign media reports, there will be a huge winter storm in the northeastern United States, which will delay the delivery of UPS, FedEx and USPS .

The LPG freight rate has reached a 5-year high, exceeding USD 100,000 per day!

For the owners of oil tankers and dry bulk carriers, this is a painful period. But there are also some bright spots in the haze of the maritime industry-not only the container industry is booming, but the freight rate of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has just reached the highest point in 5 years.

Last Friday, the Baltic Exchange assessed the freight of a very large gas carrier (VLGC, an LPG carrier with a capacity of approximately 84,000 cubic meters) at US$104,000 per day. This figure has risen from a low of less than $20,000 per day in July.

Last Wednesday, Argus carried out a higher assessment of VLGC freight rates on the Middle East-Asia route: US$107,000 per day.

 

The LPG freight rate has reached a 5-year high, exceeding USD 100,000 per day!
Chart: Kofyin; until December 10

The stocks of VLGC owners are rising. In the past six months, the two Norwegian companies Avance Gas (Oslo: AGAS) and BW LPG (Oslo: BWLPG) have grown by 110% and 88%, respectively. Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG), which is listed in the United States, is lagging, although it has grown by 44% during this period.

 

The LPG freight rate has reached a 5-year high, exceeding USD 100,000 per day!
Chart: Fernley Securities

In order to gain insight into the factors that led to the increase in VLGC freight rates and whether the freight rebound has an impact , FreightWaves interviewed Scott Gray, an LPG freight broker located in Texas.

Gray is known in the industry as one of the co-founders of Waterborne Reports, a well-respected natural gas transportation intelligence company that was subsequently acquired by IHS Markit (NYSE:INFO).

U.S. exports unexpectedly rise

LPG (propane and butane) is produced through oil and gas production and refining processes. When the impact of the epidemic cut consumption in the first half of the year and oil prices plummeted, people worried that LPG transportation would be a terrible situation.

Theoretically, the lower U.S. production combined with the sharp decline in refinery output will reduce U.S. LPG exports. There are two main factors affecting VLGC freight: US-Asia and Middle East-Asia traffic. As the U.S.-Asia voyage is longer, the rate is more important. Therefore, U.S. LPG exports restricted by the epidemic will limit the spot price of VLGC.

But the facts have proved that concerns about US exports are unfounded.

Gray explained: "I want to say that the U.S. water LPG exports have not been affected by various sporadic events in the first and second quarters. If you look at the export graph, the graph will fluctuate, but it has a downward trend. Not big. In fact, I can even say that the average in the fourth quarter is better than the previous three quarters. We see 80, 82, 84 VLGC loading every month. I think this is a powerful system."

Gray said that unlike LPG in the Middle East (more from the refining process), LPG in the United States is produced through natural gas production. After the new crown epidemic, natural gas production has performed better than oil production and refining.

In BW LPG's latest quarterly conference call, CEO Anders Onarheim said: "Despite the decline in oil production, the U.S. LPG production has increased." Executive Vice President of Business, BW LPG Niels Rigault added: “The production of LPG in the US has proven to be more resilient in a low-price environment.”

Far East demand is very strong

VLGC's listed companies have highlighted the strong demand for Asia from China, Japan and South Korea in recent months. In Asia, propane is used for heating and cooking and plastic production.

On the industrial side, LPG is consumed by propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. Some PDH plants only use propane as a raw material; others choose to use propane or naphtha based on price. In layman's terms, the propylene produced by the PDH plant is the precursor of polypropylene, and propylene is the precursor of plastic.

Considering the plastic packaging of all commodities used after the epidemic, the price of propylene is soaring. What followed was the pricing of propane in China. The value of propylene is at or close to a record level.

The greater the spread between US propane and Chinese propane, the higher the transportation cost, while still providing shippers with acceptable sales margins.

"This (Asian) demand keeps prices high. Gray said that when the price difference (priced with the United States) increases, the shipping industry will step in and get a share of the pie, which is why freight rates are now rising sharply.

Middle East exports and India imports

The transportation needs of LPG must be considered in conjunction with the export situation of the Middle East and the United States.

Due to the impact of the epidemic that has led to OPEC production cuts and refineries, the impact of COVID on Middle East exports is greater than US exports.

Gray confirmed: “Due to reduced refinery operations, production in the Middle East has decreased. Iran’s transaction volume has also declined. In January, Iran’s production was approximately 575,000 tons. In November it was 250,000 tons.”

A key development in global shipping demand is the increase in India's imports of American LPG, rather than imports from the Middle East.

Rigault said: “India started importing from the United States last year. The duration of the voyage is more than four times the duration of the Middle East voyage. India mainly buys LPG from the Middle East. But they also see the US price, so they can also buy American products.”

Gray is skeptical of the US-India trade that started in early 2019. "This is considered a new thing. A new route. But the Middle East market seems to have taken back part of it. They said'Don't be in my backyard' because it is next door. It is difficult for the United States to compete with long-distance freight in the Middle East on the basis of However, the Middle East can ship it to the United States. In addition, Indians also have contracts in the Middle East. For us, this is more opportunity."

Canal and dry dock supply restrictions

The two main constraints on ship supply: the congestion of the Panama Canal and the maintenance and modification of dry docks for LPG ships are also increasing freight rates.

As previously reported by FreightWaves, in the past two months, the speed of ships without transit reservations through the Panama Canal has slowed. Gray said: "We have seen that due to delays, the volume of shipments from the United States to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope has increased, which has led to an increase in freight rates."

The most important ship supply issue involves dry docks.

He pointed out: “There are currently 25-30 LPG ships in dry docks in Asia in need of repairs. I think about five years ago: all the newbuildings came in. Now, after five years, it’s like you bought one. The car must be brought in, and the boat must be maintained. All these people will go to the yard at the same time, thus tightening the market."

Outlook for the first quarter of 2021

How long can VLGC freight rate maintain the current high point?

In terms of dry dock, the freight tailwind will continue. Gray said: "In the first quarter, there were almost as many ships in dry dock as in the fourth quarter." According to Rigault, "23% of the global VLGC fleet will enter the dock next year."

In terms of freight, the volume in the Middle East may increase. OPEC plans to cut production in January. Gray certainly said: "It will have an impact at some point."

At the same time, Biden will assume the presidency on January 20. It is expected that Biden's attitude towards Iran will not be as tough as Trump. This may eventually increase Iran’s LPG exports.

The biggest unknown is the arbitrage spread between China and the US LPG, which will determine the volume of transactions on this long-distance route.

In terms of weather, if the weather in the United States is cold, the domestic demand for LPG heating will increase, but the warm weather in North Asia will reduce the demand, the price difference will be reduced, and the goods will be reduced. vice versa.