Small containers are becoming a key factor affecting the global trade industry chain.
At the moment, in the field of foreign trade, it has become a consensus that “the one who gets the container gets the world”, and the lack of containers has become a hurdle in the international logistics chain. It can be said that I am in a hurry here, and you are looking forward to it.
Since July this year, China’s export volume has risen sharply, and both the shipping market and the China-Europe freight train market have seen shortages of containers, soaring freight rates, and delayed turnover.
Statistics from the China Container Association show that China’s export containers are mainly satisfied in two ways: unloading old containers after unloading at ports, and new containers made by Chinese container manufacturers.
At present, my country can only return one for every 3.5 containers exported. A large number of empty containers are backlogged in the United States, Europe and Australia, and there is a shortage of containers in Asia.
Containers that are usually returned within 60 days are now delayed to 100 days, and the cost of renting containers has also increased by about 150%.
Zhang Jun, deputy general manager of Qingdao Port QQCT, said:
Under normal circumstances, if 1,000 containers are needed in the current period, there will usually be 1,200 to 1,300 containers waiting at the port. However, when containers are now in short supply, there may be only 800 to 900 containers at the terminal.
Nowadays, in addition to the hard to find a box, there is also a "hard to get a cabin."
The lack of shipping company capacity is the beginning of the nightmare of freight forwarders.
After the suspension, in addition to high freight rates, freight forwarders are faced with the realistic challenge of "bursting cabins".
The relationship with the shipping company is the "most familiar stranger", and the freight forwarder who can't pay the high price can't book the space at all, and the long-term customer's cargo cannot enter the port and board the ship on time.
After the "explosive cabin", due to insufficient space, the shipping company will detain many of the space booked by the freight forwarder on the next flight in order to maximize the benefits. You know, "drop the container".
For large freight forwarders, the losses caused by dumping containers may still be within the tolerable range.
For those small and medium freight forwarders who rely on a few large customers themselves, the disadvantage of insufficient competitiveness in this case may directly lead to their fall.
As the "middleman" between the customer and the shipping company, the explosion of warehouses at the end of the year made the freight forwarding "messy in the cold wind" gradually.
The freight forwarding industry is already facing a situation where the strong will remain strong and the weak will remain weak.
However, freight forwarders serving some special categories will be in a better position because they have their own unique competitive advantages.
On the 17th, Hapag-Lloyd's official website issued an announcement that due to continuous unforeseen operational challenges, it is still facing extremely tight equipment.
Hapag-Lloyd supports all confirmed bookings, but it does not rule out the possibility of cancellation.
At the moment it can be said that: I grabbed the space and lacked the box; I grabbed the box and lacked the space; I grabbed the box and the space , but the freight rate has risen again.······
A China-Europe Express platform company said that since the beginning of this year, the shipment volume of China-Europe Express Express has continued to increase, but the limited port operation capacity, coupled with the impact of border epidemic prevention and control and other factors, has caused a large amount of cargo to be backlogged at the port. "From the second half of this year, At the beginning, some ports experienced serious congestion. With the increase in freight demand at the end of the year, congestion has become more serious recently."
Against the background of "extreme" demand and lack of equipment, the price of freight transport by China-Europe railway has jumped fivefold . In addition, the backlog of containers on the border between China and Kazakhstan (Alashankou and Khorgos) prompted the temporary suspension of some westbound services.
GEODIS, a leading French logistics company, told its customers: “The space on the westbound is very tight. According to the availability of venues and equipment, delivery is accepted according to the company’s reservations. “Since the westbound service has a very large demand for space, we require Check all possible bookings one by one. "
With air and sea transportation restricted, railway traffic is approaching full capacity, and the delays on the China-Kazakhstan border have exacerbated traffic congestion. According to Rob Foster, business development manager for Norman Global Logistics Central and North China, the main problem is traffic congestion, not service suspension. He said that "the border has a large backlog of goods, and the railway transportation company cannot handle the volume of trucks." "In the first week of December, the westbound price per 40-foot high container ranged from US$6,000 to US$10,000, four or five times that of the same period last year. Shipping companies would not even guarantee to provide space at such a price. " "Serious shortage of equipment . " It is also a key issue , especially outside of China.
"By manipulating the ocean freight market, shipping companies have caused this problem to a large extent, affecting all services. For several months, airlines have been operating small ships, coupled with suspension of services, slowly forming pressure. Rail transport companies There are some containers, but there are still many containers that are leased."
He pointed out that in recent years, there has been an "explosive growth" in train services, which has increased from a few times a week to a few hundred times a month, putting considerable pressure on the railway network. In fact, taking Alashankou as an example, the latest data shows that this year's railway transmission volume has increased by 42% to 4,500 times, and the entire China-Europe railway network has sent more than 10,000 times.
In response to the current serious backlog of ports, the National Railway Group issued dispatch orders this month:
Dispatch order:
• Issued on November 22: From 22 to 25, shipments of outbound goods via Alashankou and Horgos except for the China-Europe Express will be suspended.
• Issued on December 8th: From 8th to 13th, all kinds of goods exported to Erlian and Alashankou will be suspended. If there are key materials, they must be reported to the National Railway Group.
• Issued on December 13th: From 13th to 16th, cargoes exported to Manzhouli, Erlian and Alashankou will be suspended (except for the scheduled train).
• Re-delivery on December 16th: From 18:00 on the 16th to 18:00 on the 19th, all kinds of goods exported to Manzhouli and Alashankou except for the scheduled China-Europe Express train will stop loading.
On December 12, the National Railway Group responded to the recent congestion of the China-Europe Express, saying that the port handover capacity has indeed declined recently, and some corridors have moved slowly. The National Railway Group said this is due to the approach of Christmas in the West. The demand is strong, and the epidemic prevention and control measures at port stations have been strengthened, as a result of factors such as bad weather overseas. The railway department has taken measures to carry out source regulation and deconstruction, and adopt phased capacity regulation measures; at the same time, implement capacity expansion and transformation at Khorgos, Erlianhot and other ports to improve handover capabilities; strengthen international coordination and cooperation. China National Railway Group stated that the above measures have effectively relieved port congestion. China National Railway Group requires that China-Europe Express trains will not be suspended or installed during this period.
The above-mentioned China-Europe Express platform company said that a train from China to Europe needs to be changed twice in the middle. The first time was when China exited the CIS countries or Mongolia, the standard gauge (1435) Cm) car plate, replaced by a wide gauge (1520 cm) car plate, the second change is to go from Russia westbound to Europe, and then change from the wide gauge car plate to the standard gauge car plate, the smooth operation of the train needs Close cooperation with countries along the way.
"Because the trains on the outbound journey are blocked at the port, and there are no trains on the return journey to pick up the containers, once congestion occurs, it will be two-way." The above-mentioned person said.
A freight forwarder engaged in the China-Europe freight train business in Central Asia also told a reporter from China Business News that the limited number of railway infrastructure and loading and unloading equipment in some Central Asian countries and the low level of dispatching are one of the important reasons for congestion. For example, the number of wide-gauge car plates in Kazakhstan is much lower than that of Chinese ports. After the car plates are dispatched to Europe, Kazakhstan's own ports face the problem of insufficient car plates.
Regarding the reasons for the increasing demand for China-Europe Express, an international logistics company said that under the impact of the epidemic, air freight prices have skyrocketed, and shipping companies have reduced the number of ocean freighters and the number of ports of call. The convenience and effectiveness are greatly reduced. Rail freight has become the choice of more and more customers. "Air transport capacity is limited, and freight is high. Maritime transport involves crew quarantine, cargo handling and other links, frequent personnel contacts, which were greatly affected during the epidemic. Many goods originally transported by air and sea were transferred to rail transportation, which led to the beginning of February this year. , The volume of China-Europe express trains continues to grow."
The data released by China Railway Group also showed that as of November 5, the number of China-Europe freight trains in 2020 has reached 10,180, which has exceeded the number of trains in the whole year of last year, transporting 927,000 TEUs of goods, an increase of 54% year-on-year. In November this year, the China-Europe freight train continued to operate at a high level, with 1,238 trains operating 115,000 TEUs, an increase of 64% and 73% year-on-year respectively, and the comprehensive heavy container rate reached 98.8%.
Winter is coming, Europe and the United States continue to fight back against the epidemic! The most advanced blockade in London, England, or full blockade in New York!
The continuation of the new crown epidemic has caused shipping companies to continue to face port backlogs and ship delays. The tail-end logistics delivery also depends on luck. International supply chains are becoming increasingly tense and global trade is facing the risk of disruption.
Epidemics in Europe and America counterattack menacingly
According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 7:27 on the 16th Beijing time, there were 73,365,192 confirmed cases of new crowns worldwide, and 1,632,554 deaths. The United States is still the most severely affected country in the world, with 16,677,333 confirmed cases and 303,046 deaths.
▍London enters the highest level of blockade again, and the port is still heavily congested
It has been less than two weeks before Christmas, and people are shopping and preparing for the holiday enthusiastically. However, the epidemic in Europe has raised concerns again at this time.
The British epidemic is already a real rebound!
According to the latest epidemic report, there were 18,450 newly diagnosed cases in the UK in a single day, and a total of 1,869,666 confirmed cases; 506 new deaths in a single day, and a total of 64,908 deaths.
Infection in London
On the afternoon of the 14th, the British Secretary of Health Hancock officially announced in the House of Commons that London, the west and south of Essex, and the south of Hertfordshire will be upgraded to the strictest level three lockdown from Wednesday (16th). .
After the escalation of the Level 3 lockdown in London, the following measures need to be strictly observed:
• Bars, restaurants, and cafes are closed, and only take-out and delivery services are reserved;
• Shops, gyms, and barber shops can continue to be open;
• People are not allowed to socialize with people from other families indoors, private gardens or most outdoor public places;
• Up to 6 people can socialize outdoors;
• Fans are once again prohibited from entering football fields and other stadiums;
• Cinemas and bowling alleys are closed;
• People are advised not to go to the tertiary lockdown zone.
British Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned on Wednesday that according to current trends, the government will have to take stricter measures in the capital to effectively limit the spread of the new crown virus.
The Mayor of London warned that “if London enters the third level of lockdown, it will be catastrophic for those industries that have been severely affected by the new crown pandemic.”
Although London was initially listed as a “second-tier lockdown” city when the nationwide blockade measures were lifted on December 2, London’s current level of restrictions will be reassessed next week, just as the relaxation of Christmas regulations is coming A few days before it becomes effective.
In addition, severe congestion in most ports in the UK has forced several shipping companies to impose congestion surcharges and cancel some flights.
British importers are currently facing major challenges, and the shipping division of the Ocean Alliance decided to transfer the other five ships that arrived in Felixstowe in December to Zeebrugge, Belgium. Cosco Shipping Azalea, Ever Goods, Ever Globe, CSCL Jupiter and CSCL Uranus will no longer call at Felixstowe, and will unload British imports at Belgian ports.
British ports continued to increase congestion, 2M abandoned Felixstowe and switched to Liverpool, and major shipping companies cancelled berthing at hub ports. Starting from the end of this year, the 2M Alliance has replaced the Port of Felixstowe with the Port of Liverpool on its TA2/NEUATL2 ring route across the Atlantic.
In addition, in front of the cargo entrance of the Eurotunnel in the Port of Dover in the UK, trucks waiting in line to enter were parked, and the congestion continued for several kilometers.
▍New York City in the United States may be completely blocked, 23 container ships are waiting at anchorage in California
On December 14, local time, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (Bill de Blasio) said that due to the deterioration of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, there is a possibility of a complete lockdown in New York City.
He said that since May, he has never seen the current level of new coronavirus infections. Action must be taken to stop this growth momentum. The number one job at present is to protect the health and safety of residents.
In an interview with CNN, Bai Sihao said: “We must start to close the most sensitive areas.” When asked about possible lockdown measures, he said, “I think we must be prepared in the next few weeks to deal with the current new crown pneumonia. With the momentum of the epidemic, we must stop it before it causes too much damage and too much pain."
New York Governor Cuomo pointed out that on Monday, a total of 5,712 patients with COVID-19 were treated in hospitals across New York State. At the peak of the spring, more than 18,000 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized.
Both de Blasio and Cuomo agreed to ban indoor dining in New York City from Monday to curb the surge in hospital admissions. However, they are divided on the circumstances under which they will issue the city-wide blockade order.
According to the latest data released by the Port of Los Angeles, the port's container throughput in November increased by 22% year-on-year to more than 889,000 TEUs. Gene Seroka, executive director of the port, said that every part of the logistics supply chain of major ports around the world is still under constant tension.
On Tuesday, 15 container ships berthed at the Port of Los Angeles, but there were 23 more anchored at the anchored San Pedro Bay. Of these, 14 will go to berth in Los Angeles and 9 will go to berth at Long Beach Port.
It also introduced, “The stay time of containers at the terminal remains at about 5 days, which is twice as long as before the surge in imports in the summer. However, the average waiting time for warehouses and storage space is currently only 6.3 days compared to 7.1 days in October. Get better."
"The situation at the anchorage is currently a real concern for all of us. Many ships currently need to anchor and enter a waiting mode before berthing," Seroka continued. In November, 50 of the 88 ships that arrived in Los Angeles had to drop anchor first, with an average berthing time of two and a half days. So far in December, about 80% of arriving ships will drop anchor first. Now the waiting time has increased to 4 days. "
▍Germany issued the strictest blockade order
On the 13th local time, the German Federation and the state governments agreed to further tighten the epidemic prevention and control measures from the 16th until January 10, 2021.
Retail stores except for food and essential daily necessities will be closed;
Schools and kindergartens will stop teaching face-to-face courses, but will provide distance education;
Business employers should provide employees with vacation or home office solutions.
According to the media, the strength of this "hard blockade order" is almost equal to that of the "wide blockade."
In addition, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that Germany will face a new peak of new crown infections next month, which makes people suspect that the hard blockade imposed on Wednesday may not end in early January as originally planned. It is reported that German law requires the government to re-evaluate the nationwide blockade every four weeks.
DHL suspends services in 12 European countries
The current logistics situation really puts some cargo owners in trouble. According to freight forwarders, Hong Kong DHL standard channels have added 6 countries with 0-5KG parcels suspended for shipping services.
The six countries are the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Finland, Turkey, and Bulgaria. In addition to the previously suspended countries-Austria, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Romania, and Nigeria, 12 countries have suspended delivery services.
Congestion and delays in UPS, FedEx and FBA are commonplace. Now even USPS has been complained by sellers that USPS delays have ruined Christmas.
Many sellers abroad have begun to complain about the surge in USPS delays, leading to a surge in complaints from buyers. There are even eBay sellers that have started a holiday mode and plan to return to sell after January.
According to foreign media reports, outside the United States Post Office on Broadway, USPS delivery trucks are already in long queues. A truck driver has been waiting for 16 hours to unload the truck’s packages. Finally, after many round trips, they waited for two. After a day and a half, the USPS truck driver was finally able to unload his cargo.
Outbreaks in other countries
Japan : In view of the continuing deterioration of the epidemic, the Japanese government announced on the evening of the 14th that it will temporarily suspend travel subsidies aimed at encouraging consumption across the country. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on the evening of the 14th that from December 28 to January 11, 2021, the country will suspend the "go travel" tourism subsidy program, and the government will compensate the operators for some of the losses.
Netherlands : In view of the rapid development of the new crown epidemic, Dutch Prime Minister Rutte made a television speech on the 14th, announcing that it will comprehensively upgrade prevention and control measures, including closing schools, closing "non-essential" stores, avoiding unnecessary travel, and working from home as much as possible.
Singapore : Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong delivered a national speech on the 14th, announcing that Singapore will enter the third phase of relaxation of epidemic control measures on December 28. Singapore’s anti-epidemic inter-departmental working group further explained that starting from December 28, the government will further relax restrictions on the flow of people in shopping malls and retail stores, and tourist attractions can also apply to increase passenger capacity. In addition, the government has increased the maximum number of attendees for indoor and outdoor live performances to 250 people.
Palestine : Palestinian Prime Minister Ashtiye said on the 14th that whether to receive the new crown vaccine depends on personal wishes, and the Palestinian government will not force people to receive the new crown vaccine. The new crown vaccine is expected to begin to arrive in Palestine at the beginning of next year, when medical staff and the elderly will be given priority.
Rwanda : Rwanda’s Ministry of Health, Daniel N’gamij, said on the 13th that while the country’s current confirmed cases of new crowns have surged, the number of deaths has also increased, and the Rwanda epidemic has entered a “dangerous stage”. He called on all people to comply with the new crown epidemic prevention measures and avoid going to crowded places and participating in social gatherings when unnecessary.
When the general enterprise exports, the main concern during the loading process is the error of the goods data, the damage of the goods and the data inconsistent with the customs declaration data, which will cause the customs to not release.
Therefore, before loading, the shipper, warehouse, and freight forwarder must coordinate and considerately to avoid this situation. The following is an explanation of the skills of container loading.
Precautions for mixing
When the general enterprise exports, the main concern during the loading process is the error of the goods data, the damage of the goods and the data inconsistent with the customs declaration data, which will cause the customs to not release. Therefore, before loading, the shipper, warehouse, and freight forwarder must coordinate and considerately to avoid this situation.
1. Goods with different shapes and different packages should not be packed together as much as possible;
2. Goods that will seep dust, liquid, moisture, odor, etc. from the package should not be placed with other goods as much as possible. "If there is a last resort, they must be separated by canvas, plastic film or other materials.
3. Light goods are placed on top of relatively heavy goods;
4. Goods with weak packing strength should be placed on top of goods with strong packing strength;
5. Liquid goods and clean goods should be placed under other goods as far as possible;
6. Goods with sharp corners or protruding parts should be covered to avoid damage to other goods.
Container loading skills
There are usually three methods for on-site packing operations of containerized goods: that is, all the boxes are packed by manpower, moved into the box by forklift ) The goods are stacked in the box with a forklift truck.
1. In any case, when goods are loaded into a container, the weight of the goods in the box cannot exceed the maximum load capacity of the container, that is, the total amount of the container minus the self-weight of the container. Under normal circumstances, the total weight and dead weight will be marked on the door of the container.
2. The unit weight of each container is fixed, so when loading the same kind of goods in the box, as long as you know the density of the goods, you can determine whether it is heavy or light. If the density of the goods is greater than the unit weight of the box, it is considered heavy, otherwise, it is considered light. Timely and clearly distinguishing these two different situations is very important to improve packing efficiency.
3. When loading, balance the load on the bottom of the box, especially strictly prohibiting the load center of gravity on one end.
4. Avoid generating concentrated loads. "For example, when loading heavy goods such as machinery and equipment, the bottom of the box should be covered with padding materials such as wooden boards to spread the load as much as possible. The average safe load per unit area on the bottom of a standard container is roughly: 1330x9.8N/m for a 20-foot container, 40 feet The container is 980x9.8N/m2.
5. When using manual loading, pay attention to whether there are loading and unloading indication signs such as "not upside down", "flat", "vertical", etc. on the package. Be sure to use the loading tools correctly. Hand hooks are prohibited for bundled goods. The goods in the box should be neatly and tightly packed. For goods that are easy to be loosely bundled and packaged with fragile packaging, use pads or insert plywood between the goods to prevent the goods from moving in the box.
6. When loading pallet cargo, it is necessary to accurately grasp the internal dimensions of the container and the external dimensions of the cargo packaging in order to calculate the number of pieces to be loaded, so as to achieve the purpose of minimizing abandonment and loading more cargo.
7. When using a forklift truck to load the box, it will be restricted by the free lifting height of the machinery and the height of the mast. Therefore, if conditions permit, the forklift can load two layers at a time, but there must be a certain gap between the top and bottom. If the conditions do not allow loading two layers at a time, when installing the second layer, considering the free lifting height of the forklift truck and the height that the forklift truck mast may lift, the mast lifting height should be the first The height of the first floor minus the free lifting height, so that the second floor can be loaded on the upper floor of the third floor.
In addition, a general forklift truck with a lifting capacity of 2 tons is generally used, and its free lifting height is about 1250px. But there is also a fork-lift truck with full free lifting height. This kind of machinery is not affected by the lifting height of the mast as long as the height of the box allows it, and it can easily stack two layers of goods. In addition, it should also be noted that there should be skids under the cargo so that the fork can be pulled out smoothly.
Finally, it’s best not to pack the goods naked, at least with packaging, and don’t blindly save space and cause damage to the goods. General goods will also be packaged. Only large machines such as boilers and building materials will be more troublesome. They must be tied up and tied tightly to prevent loosening. In fact, as long as you are careful, there won't be too many problems.
In 2020, global shipping logistics started as a nightmare due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, but at the end of the year it ushered in unprecedented popularity. The price of container transportation has been rising for several consecutive months, and the current freight rate can be described as "rising every day"...
The spot freight rate from Asia to Northern Europe is at a record high, and the annual contract price is expected to rise sharply. The impact of the new epidemic lockdown measures on sales, shippers have increased concerns about soaring freight and surcharges, which may lead to next year The wave of order cancellations.
Asia-Europe part of the freight rate exceeds 10,000 US dollars, and shippers face challenges in the Asia-Europe contract season
The freight forwarder stated that since Asia-Europe freight rates have increased by at least 5 times year-on-year, and the total freight rates of some goods have exceeded US$10,000/FEU, shippers are delaying or canceling shipments before the freight rates are adjusted.
The Shanghai Container Freight Index shows that in the week ending December 11, spot freight rates in Asia and Europe increased 24% from the previous week to US$2,948 per TEU. However, freight forwarders stated that the index reflects market conditions incompletely, and shippers’ quotations exceeded $10000/FEU.
A source said: "We are beginning to see customers canceling reservations because the prices are too high."
Shipping from China to the UK in January, the shipping company is now quoting 10,000 US dollars / 40'HC at sight, the source said: "I heard that the price is 13,500 US dollars."
In addition to the additional costs of shipping companies, including the increase in scheduled cancellation fees, freight forwarders worry that customers will refuse or fail to pay all the additional costs caused by the interruption of the supply chain.
European shippers are preparing for the upcoming contract season and have issued warnings to shipping companies that they will take further action if they try to maintain this year’s sharply increased rates.
The freight from Asia to Europe is as high as US$10,000/FEU, including various surcharges currently applicable to the industry. The Global Shippers Forum (GSF) said that due to “overpriced”, many shippers are currently not delivering goods at all. Small and medium-sized companies cannot pay additional fees.
GSF Secretary General James Hookham said: “The shipper cannot afford the various increased rates and therefore loses business.”
Freight rates in Europe and East Asia continue to rise
▍Maersk announced new fees in Europe and East Asia from December to next year
Maersk announced a new peak season surcharge (PSS), which applies to refrigerated goods from the Far East to Northern and Southern European countries. The surcharge will be $1,000 / 20' reefer container, $1,500 / 40' reefer container, effective from December 15th, and Taiwan will be effective from January 1, 2021.
In addition, since December 1, MSC has implemented PSS of US$500/20' and US$750/40' for all dry goods from the UK, Ireland, Northern Spain, Portugal and the Baltic Sea to the Far East.
In addition, MSC has adjusted the following rates starting from December 1, 2020 until further notice, but not exceeding December 31, 2020.
▍Hapag-Lloyd announced to increase the surcharge from Asia to many places in Europe
A few days ago, Hapag-Lloyd announced new prices from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean, which will take effect on January 1, 2021.
Hapag-Lloyd also issued a new general tax rate increase (GRI) for all dry containers, reefer containers, non-operational reefer containers, storage tanks, flat racks and open-top containers from South Asia and Northeast Asia to Australia , since January 1. Effective.
Southeast Asia to Australia
US $ 150/20'
US $ 300/40'
Northeast Asia to Australia
US $ 300/20'
US $ 600/40'
From December 7th, Hapag-Lloyd will implement another GRI for all goods and all types of containers from East Asia to the East Coast of South America at USD 550 per container.
At the same time, Hapag-Lloyd announced that it will postpone the GRI implemented in eastbound trade from East Asia to all destinations in the United States and Canada on December 1, and the new effective date is January 1, 2021.
This general rate increase is applicable to all dry goods, refrigerated cabinets, non-operational refrigerated cabinets, storage tanks, pallets and open top containers. Details are as follows:
East Asia to North America (United States and Canada)
US$960/20'
US$1200/40'
East Asia includes countries/regions in Japan, South Korea, China, China/Taiwan, China/Hong Kong, China/Macau, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines, and Russia’s Pacific Rim provinces.
As my country's foreign trade exports gradually stabilized and improved, the lack of domestic export capacity has appeared in many places, and for a period of time, it has also been accompanied by a shortage of containers.
Recently, a 1℃ reporter from China Business News found that the main reason for the “difficult to find one container” situation was that due to the epidemic, the efficiency of container turnover was reduced, and the port congestion caused a large number of delays in shipping schedules, which further aggravated the return of containers. smooth. With the efforts of domestic container manufacturers in recent months, the shortage of domestic containers has improved, and the shortage of some ports has eased.
However, new container manufacturers dare not continue to expand production capacity. Because of the epidemic, market uncertainty continues.
According to the 1℃ reporter's further on-site investigation, the shortage of containers has stimulated the kinetic energy of new container construction in China, and the prices of raw materials and labor have risen. The ex-factory price of new containers will rise accordingly. For the high freight rates, it is the foreign trade companies that ultimately suffer the loss of profits.
Inefficient port congestion
On the afternoon of December 2, when the 1℃ reporter arrived at Shenzhen Yantian International Container Terminal, the containers were piled up like a mountain, and heavy semi-trailer trucks entered and exited in file at the gate: the first class trucks were fully loaded with the containers that were about to be exported and went through automatic inspection. The passage enters the terminal, and the other type is an empty truck, which enters the gate and exits after the airspace cabinet. Many large trucks are still lining up to pick up the containers.
Chinese exports with a major source of container in two aspects, one is emptying the old container port after unloading , the second is Chinese-made box business of new office box . According to statistics from China Container Industry Association, usually the storage size of empty containers at ports is about 4 million TEU (Twenty-feet Equivalent Unit, the international standard unit, a container with a length of 20 feet is the international unit of measurement), and the port unloads old containers. It is the main source of supply for export boxes in my country.
We have not yet seen data on how many empty containers are available in the yards of domestic ports such as Yantian Port, but statistics from the China Container Industry Association show that since this year, China’s major foreign trade container ports have unloaded old container stocks with export growth and overseas adjustments. Due to restrictions on the return of empty containers and other factors, the unloaded old container stock of the seven major foreign trade container ports continued to decrease from about 3.05 million TEU at the end of February 2020 to about 1.85 million TEU at the end of October, compared with the same period in the past five years A reduction of 26%.
Photo: Yantian International Container Terminal is located in Dapeng Bay, east of Shenzhen. Photo/Wu Mianqiang
At present, domestic export containers are still very tight. In addition to the fact that container transportation has broken the original arrival and delivery balance level, the decline in container circulation speed and port congestion are also one of the main reasons.
As the "barometer" of global trade, containers have a complete set of operating procedures. According to people in the shipping industry, taking shipping as an example, the port terminal is a transfer station for containers. Export companies book space and containers from the freight forwarder. After passing through the export customs broker, the trailer fleet consisting of semi-trailers goes to the terminal and other yards to pick up containers After the container is filled with cargo, it is sent to the port terminal for export. After the liner arrives at the destination port with the container, the local cargo owner arranges customs clearance, picking up the container, unloading, and returning the container to the terminal yard. After waiting for the local export company to book, pick up the container and load the cargo, the container will be transferred back to China by liner.
However, the lingering epidemic has affected the efficiency of the above-mentioned container operations. Overseas epidemics have repeated, and the efficiency of local cargo owners in customs clearance, container picking and unloading is low. The relevant person in charge of the Guangdong small appliance export company previously interviewed by the 1℃ reporter said that their company's goods are in the ports of European and American countries .
Affected by the epidemic, many countries have experienced labor shortages, especially port operators, trailer truck drivers and related logistics personnel.
Master Sun, a truck driver picking up cargo at the Shenzhen container yard, told the 1℃ reporter that the company’s overseas business divisions had a "labor shortage". The United States had just finished Thanksgiving and will enter the Christmas season, which will further increase labor. tension.
The China Container Industry Association recently issued an "Action Initiative for Enterprises in the Container Industry Chain to Work Together to Stabilize Foreign Trade and Promote Growth", which stated that "Due to the increase in the number of infected people and the requirements of epidemic prevention measures, shippers (from across the ocean) cannot normally get from ports. The goods are shipped out of the cargo yard, and some goods are even rejected after arriving at the port. This has caused more and more containers to be piled up in disorder at the port. This disordered storage has caused the shipping company’s ships to be unable to dock and offshore on schedule. Affected the turnover efficiency of containers."
"From a global perspective, the supply chain of container transportation has slowed down. This is also one of the important factors that have caused global container tension." said Zhao, who has been in the shipping industry for more than ten years. Therefore, ports are definitely better than Congestion in the past was inevitable.
The prevention and control of the epidemic has also reduced the efficiency of domestic container operations. Lao Zhao recently told reporters at 1℃ that after the liner arrived at the domestic port, compared with the non-epidemic period, the quarantine process and procedures have increased. For example, the container needs to be disinfected, which leads to a longer time for customs clearance and unloading. "The crew cannot go ashore. It needs to be isolated and rotated first."
Port congestion will lead to adjustments in shipping schedules and affect the efficiency of container transportation. Since the third quarter of this year, the Ocean Network Express (ONE) of the TA Alliance has continued to update the schedule adjustment notice on its official website. The reporter at 1℃ found that most of the reasons were caused by port congestion.
From December 1st to 4th, ONE continuously issued more than 20 notices regarding the Shanghai Port shipping schedule changes or late opening notices, mostly due to "the effect of port congestion causing delays in shipping schedules." In the past November, there were more cases of ship delays due to port congestion. ONE is a Japanese container shipping company headquartered in Tokyo and Singapore. It was established as a joint venture by a Japanese shipping company in 2016, with a fleet of over one million TEUs.
"Once there is congestion in the port, the operation efficiency of containers will be low, which will further aggravate the tension of container use." Lao Zhao said.
As the international container ocean trunk transportation hub port in South China, Yantian Port is one of the world's largest single-handle container terminals. It mainly serves routes exported to Europe and the United States. Nearly 100 liner routes reach Europe, the United States and other regions every week. The 1℃ reporter found on the scene that the port was busy, and the gates were still slightly crowded. Many large trucks stopped at the door and waited for the relevant procedures to be completed, while the large trucks that had already lifted their cabinets slowly pulled out of the cracks.
Cost rises, logistics prices soar
The shortage of domestic export containers has caused the single-container market price to soar. As the order volume of container manufacturers increases, the cost of raw materials and labor has increased. In addition, the shortage of shipping space has further increased the cost of export containers for enterprises, increasing the logistics cost of the foreign trade industry and eroding the profits of export enterprises.
In fact, more than 90% of global containers are currently supplied by Chinese companies. According to the research report of Dongxing Securities, on the container production side, CIMC (CIMC, market share of 44%), Shanghai Universe (DFIC, market share of about 24%), and Xinhuachang (CXIC, market share About 13%), Singamas (about 3% market share) occupy most of the market share.
According to data released by the China Container Industry Association, there are three main types of container buyers. One is shipping companies, the other is container leasing companies, and the third is domestic railway and logistics companies . The third category accounts for a very low proportion, not exceeding all. 8% of annual container production and sales. The total production and sales of China's container manufacturers are between 2 million and 3 million TEU each year, and the storage of new containers accounts for 10%-20%.
1℃ reporters interviewed shipping companies and container manufacturing companies in many ways and learned that in the first five months of this year, China’s container manufacturers had almost no new orders. The pessimistic judgment of China has reduced liner shipping capacity and container procurement plans.
However, after June this year, my country's foreign trade quickly recovered. After the empty containers at the port were digested, the information of the lack of containers in the market was transmitted to the container manufacturers in mid-July, and orders continued to increase. "In September, our order volume has been scheduled to March next year." A person from CIMC Group who did not want to be named told 1℃ reporter.
"As a container equipment provider, we mainly produce according to shipping company orders. The shipping industry is currently booming and freight prices are rising. Therefore, shipowners and container leasing companies are also willing to purchase large quantities of containers." Liu Meng, a senior employee of a major domestic container manufacturer (Pseudonym) said.
Continued hot container production orders have caused the price of raw materials in the container supply chain to rise, including raw materials required for container production such as steel, wooden floors, and paint.
Insiders of Singamas Containers told 1℃ reporters that according to their understanding, steel, wood floors, and paint have all increased in varying degrees since the beginning of this year. "Compared with the off-season in the first half of this year, the price of steel has increased by about 10%, and the current average is more than 4,000 yuan per ton, and the wood floor has increased by 50% year-on-year." A relevant person in charge of a container manufacturer told 1℃ reporter.
The number of container floor sales is consistent with the trend of China's container export volume. In the raw material sector, the shortage of wood flooring is the most obvious, so prices have also increased significantly.
Kangxin New Material (600076.SH) is the only listed company in China that is mainly engaged in container floor panels. The company’s securities department confirmed that its finished product prices this year have exceeded the same period last year, "because of the increase in raw material and labor costs."
The main raw material of the container floor is logs. A domestic container bottom plate supplier told the 1℃ reporter that the current price of wood has increased significantly, and the purchase price of better poplar wood ranges from 800 to 1,000 yuan, which is more than 50% higher than when the market was normal. In the case of shortage, if the price is not increased, the timber merchant will not deliver the goods to the transaction."
The increase in supply chain costs has also driven up the selling prices of container products . A few days ago, a reporter from 1℃ asked CIMC insiders about the order status in the name of the leasing company. The salesperson of the other party said, “Orders are very slow now, and they need to wait until March next year to deliver them, mainly now (production orders). Don't go in."
The above-mentioned sales staff stated that the current order volume of the company is mainly unified at the head office level. “The selling price of 20-foot container (standard box) is now US$2,600, 40-foot container (high container) is US$4420, and 40-foot container (flat container) is 4210. Around the dollar."
Compared with last year, the price of new boxes between US$1600 and US$1700 has increased significantly. According to the research report of Dongxing Securities, in August this year, the price of a new container was only US$2,100.
"The epidemic is a double-edged sword, both an opportunity and a challenge." Recently, Lao Zhao said. Most of the foreign trade companies that have survived now have received many foreign orders, but at the same time they have encountered high freight costs caused by the shortage of containers and the shortage of space.
"Many of our company's customers, currently doing foreign trade orders, are not making enough money to pay for sea freight. Examples of this are everywhere. Even if they lose money, they still do it because they have a long-term vision and want to maintain good customers first. In the future, the freight rate will be lowered and then the profits will be made back." A business executive who has been a freight forwarder in East China for 10 years told 1℃ reporter.
I dare not rush to expand production after receiving orders in the first quarter of next year
On the evening of December 2, a 1℃ reporter came to the container production workshop of Dongguan South CIMC Logistics Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "South CIMC"), a subsidiary of CIMC Group, Fenggang Town, Dongguan City. A scene in full swing.
This is one of the largest container production bases in the country, and it is said that 1 out of every 10 containers in the world goes to sea here.
Worker Master Wang (pseudonym) had just left work and was riding a battery car to go home. He told the 1℃ reporter that the factory orders are currently full and he worked 11 hours that day. "Our factory is now operating in two shifts and is producing at full capacity," a person close to Southern CIMC told 1℃ reporter.
Since the third quarter of this year, as CIMC's order volume continues to increase, Master Wang has many colleagues who come to help temporarily. The 1℃ reporter learned during an interview with Southern CIMC that the plant has added many new temporary workers this year. “Most of them are labor dispatch employees, and the average daily salary of each person is 300 yuan, which is tens of thousands of yuan a month.” A labor dispatch company who recruited welders in a container factory of CIMC Group introduced.
"The main reason is that the container manufacturing industry is deeply affected by the shipping industry. When the market is good, the number of orders will increase, and if the production is at full capacity, there will be a shortage of manpower; when the market is not good, the number of orders will decrease, and manpower will be sufficient or even surplus. "The above-mentioned CIMC insider told the 1℃ reporter that many CIMC people (employees) still have fresh memories of the experience that factories were shut down during the financial crisis in 2008 and that they were looking forward to working at home.
On December 3, regarding the current shortage of containers and soaring freight rates in the field of foreign trade and logistics, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce Gao Feng said that on the basis of the preliminary work, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to promote the increase of capacity and support the acceleration Container return transportation, improve operation efficiency, support container manufacturing enterprises to expand production capacity, and at the same time increase the intensity of market supervision, strive to stabilize market prices, and provide strong logistics support for the stable development of foreign trade.
Recently, the China Container Industry Association has also issued an initiative to "advocate container industry chain enterprises to actively invest in stabilizing foreign trade", and strive to improve the efficiency of international container turnover. Production-related enterprises should continue to improve production efficiency, continue to tap potential production capacity, and improve process equipment. Increase the number of workers, improve their labor skills, and make every effort to ensure that new box orders are delivered as soon as possible.
Affected by the current shipping situation, many large domestic container manufacturing companies are making every effort to ensure the delivery of new container orders as soon as possible to escort foreign trade exports, while also considering the future balance of supply and demand in the global container market.
In fact, the container manufacturing and sales industry and the development of the shipping industry share each other. Nowadays, aspects of container production enterprises are operating at full capacity ensure market supply; on the other hand below the epidemic, we still dare to expand production capacity.
People in the shipping industry predict that the shortage of containers will continue until the first quarter of 2021. Therefore, there are already large domestic container companies that dare not rush to take orders for the second quarter of next year.
"The main reason is that I dare not judge the future market prospects." Liu Meng told the 1℃ reporter that the current epidemic situation continues and container manufacturers are also worried that after receiving external orders, they cannot judge the future market development. If the order is received first next year Quarterly, the supply can be guaranteed, and the market will not be turbulent at the same time, so everyone hopes to have such a steady move.
"Now that the market is in short supply, we can completely launch capacity projects, purchase equipment, and let workers work overtime to produce, but in the long run, this will break the balance of supply and demand in the global container market." Liu Meng said that the demand for containers in global trade is only There are several million TEUs, once container overcapacity occurs, it will be a serious problem.
The current life span of containers is 10-15 years. "After the rapid one-time release of production capacity, what about next year or the next year? The development of the industrial chain still requires a long stream of water." Liu Meng told the 1℃ reporter.
The sky-high freight rates, and the hot availability of space and empty containers, are forcing freight forwarding logistics companies to charter ships and open shipping routes.
Last week, it was reported on Souhang.com that freight forwarding giant DSV Panalpina bypassed the shipping company and leased three ships and a batch of empty containers to open a new China-Denmark route. The latest news is that another freight logistics company giant DHL Global Forwarding also Is considering stepping in.
Dominique von Orelli, executive vice president of DHL Global Forwarding, confirmed to the media that the company is evaluating charter plans.
DHL considers chartering for customers
A large freight forwarding company considered direct control of ship assets, but actually entered an industry that is different from its core business in terms of operation and culture. On the other hand, it also shows how popular it is to ship containers from Asia to Europe and North America. And freight forwarders desperately provide customers with adequate services.
"There may be more freight forwarders to follow suit ." Anil Vitarana, former president of United Arab Shipping, said in a post on LinkedIn.
"If there is a continuing shortage of ship capacity and containers, and major logistics providers and 3PL find it feasible to use internal resources to integrate the economic benefits of the entire supply chain, shipping companies may regret the beginning of this trend." Vitarana wrote.
He added that the logistics provider/third-party logistics provider (3PL) team includes former executives of the shipping company and can help his current employer provide the services provided by the shipping company.
Vitarana also stated that shipping companies can also cooperate with 3PL to improve service capabilities. He pointed out that CMA CGM acquired CEVA Logistics in 2019 and Maersk included DAMCO in its integrator strategy, which has further promoted the supply chain solutions of shipping companies. Program.
But not all freight forwarders consider it necessary to provide shipping services to customers.
Two other large freight forwarders, Kuehne + Nagel and DB Schenker, said that although the container market is extremely tight, they do not think such a move is necessary.
Freight forwarding giant Kuehne + Nagel expressed confidence in products based on digital solutions and cooperative relationships with shipping companies, able to provide services to customers, and will continue to provide leasing services for project cargo, rather than container customers.
DB Schenker does not believe that chartering is one of the solutions for capacity. The current shortage of ships and chartering costs have also increased. Alphaliner, a maritime analysis agency, pointed out in mid-November that most ship charters are tight. The daily charter price of 3,000-3,500 TEU ships is US$18,000, an increase of US$2,000 from the end of October.
Thorsten Meincke, DB Schenker's board member responsible for air and ocean freight, said that the resources needed to charter and manage ships are often underestimated, which will distract attention from the reliable and robust services provided by freight forwarders.
"Once you have ship assets, you have to fill them up. This will become your focus, rather than providing customers with the best solutions," Meincke said. "The current challenge facing the maritime market is largely the shortage of containers, not just the space of ships."
Indeed, other sources also believe that despite Maersk’s efforts to redefine its business model by integrating traditional shipping and freight functions, there are still huge differences in operations and culture between freight forwarders and shipping companies.
Ship asset owners must keep their ships full and require functions and costs such as ship planning and container repositioning, and freight forwarders usually rarely consider these daily affairs.
In addition, the source said that the shipping capacity chartered by DSV is small, and its cost is far from competitive with ships of 20,000 TEU or more that travel between Asia and Europe. This is why freight forwarding and shipping are almost always in different organizations, even in larger shipping companies.
The shift of manufacturing from China to Vietnam has also put pressure on the country's container supply chain.
According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.4%. As many other countries fall into recession due to the epidemic blockade, Vietnam is expected to become one of the fastest growing economies in the world in 2020.
According to Simon Vandekerckove, general manager of freight logistics giant Geodis Vietnam, procurement in Vietnam is entering a new stage. The factory is overbooked. We see that overseas customers have high expectations for Vietnam, but Vietnam does not have the necessary legal or logistics basis. Facilities to achieve this.
"Vietnam needs a lot of investment to increase new productivity and infrastructure to cope with increasing demand, and because customers want to reduce the financial risk of sourcing from only one region, Vietnam is likely to become an outsourcing region for other ASEAN countries such as Thailand and Indonesia. one."
At the same time, the shortage of global capacity and container equipment is putting pressure on Vietnam's main container ports.
A local freight forwarder in Vietnam said that the inland river terminal in Ho Chi Minh City has been congested for a long time, and the current market conditions have increased the waiting time. The export container yard capacity is 120%, and ships need to wait two to three days to find a berth.
He added: “In Cat Lai, all shipping companies’ outbound volumes have increased dramatically, but due to lack of space, about 10%-20% of the cargo must be transferred to the next ship each time.”
Vietnam’s largest deep-water port, Cai Mep, is letting ships wait 50 kilometers away. In October, the Cai Mep International Terminal (CMIT) operated by APM Terminal received the 20,000 teu Margrethe Maersk call, which is 2M One of the direct trans-Pacific routes.
The port used to have very large container ships docked (temporarily docked), but the current demand trend may cause more and more ships to come here. Next year, CMA CGM will cooperate with local operator Gemadept to open the newest terminal in Cai Mep.
Nevertheless, the current shortage of space and container equipment and the sharp rise in costs are still a huge challenge.
Vandekerckove explained: "According to all types of freight FAK and spot freight rates, bookings from Vietnam require two to three weeks in advance to secure containers and space. To the west coast of the United States, freight rates have increased by 140%, and the Mediterranean area has increased by 70%. , The Nordic region rose by 15%."
Mr. Vandekerckove said that in most cases, air freight is not an option, but road freight provides flexible options for some customers.
Regarding the concealment of import and export goods, let’s look at a case first:
On August 4, a violent explosion occurred in the port area of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, on the evening of the 4th. Preliminary statistics showed that at least 100 people were killed and more than 4,000 were injured in the explosion. The Prime Minister of Lebanon confirmed that up to 2,750 tons of explosive chemical ammonium nitrate stored in a port warehouse had exploded.
These ammonium nitrates were piled up in Beirut's port area for six years "without the necessary safety measures"!
It is understood that ammonium nitrate may explode when it is shaken or close to the fire source. The conditions of the explosion are not difficult to achieve. Nitric acid will decompose at about 180°C.
Prior to this, ammonium nitrate has caused too many major explosion accidents. Developed countries such as the United States, Britain, and France have all experienced the horror of the ammonium nitrate explosion. Bloody events are disasters for every country encountered, even for humans.
Everyone must have learned about this explosion from the overwhelming reports. However, this major accident called Lebanon’s national disaster is only one of many port and cargo ship accidents. It is not difficult to find that there have been several foreign explosions in the past. It happened in ports or in cargo ships or trains.
This is bound to be reminiscent of the safety of imported and exported goods, and under-reporting is a thing most hated by various cross-border companies.
Customs declaration: This batch of goods are toothbrushes.
Glass: Who is your name?
Customs declaration: This box of goods is paper towels.
Bath towel: You insult people!
...
These are all concealment of ordinary goods, and may only involve smuggling and other issues, but a concealment of dangerous goods is like sending an untimely bomb to freight forwarders, shipping companies, and port workers. Once an accident occurs, the consequences are disastrous.
Consequences of concealment of general cargo:
In order to evade tax, deliberately concealing part of the taxable goods constitutes smuggling. The specific legal consequences should be determined in conjunction with the amount of tax evasion.
Consequences of under-reporting of dangerous goods:
Serious accidents caused by improper storage and stowage locations; damage to the safety of the crew and the vessel; use of water guns to extinguish water damage to other containers and cargo in the cabin; delays to the entire route; huge operating costs, investigation costs, etc. Etc.; fines required by local maritime customs; customs detaining boxes for several years; may be classified as criminal smuggling and other crimes; pollution to the environment...
Measures to prevent false reports
1. Strengthen professional and safety knowledge education
As a cross-border industry practitioner, we must strengthen the training and education of hazardous materials and safety knowledge, and improve our professional service capabilities.
2. Strengthen the credit review of shippers
Strengthen the credit review of the shipper, and find out the actual source of the goods for the goods whose factory address and name are relatively acceptable. In many foreign ports, concealment of goods is a criminal responsibility, so practitioners must take it seriously.
3. Ensure clear declaration of product name
Make sure that the shipper’s declaration of the cargo brand is clear. If the declaration of the cargo name is vague and general, you must ask clearly. Some chemicals are suspected of being dangerous goods, and the shipper must be required to provide chemical safety instructions and corresponding test reports.
4. New customer information is true
In addition, you need to pay attention to whether the information of new customers is true, especially those new customers who do not need to provide customs declaration, warehousing, and towing services.
5. The product name is inconsistent with the bill of lading
If the product name is inconsistent with the bill of lading, the freight forwarder Yaao will take the initiative to check the customs declaration product name to ensure that the three orders of this batch of goods are consistent.
Magic 2020, the shipping industry has breaking news every day, and it always affects the hearts of foreign trade forwarders.
Today, the Moments of Friends screened the video of the driver grabbing the box. Truck drivers flocked to "queue" to pick up the cabinet. You earn and I grab one box, and they are almost "fighting".
This is a real response. Even if the shipping company normally releases the cabin, there is no guarantee that there will be boxes. It is difficult to find a box in China.
Another heavy news is that CMA CGM will directly stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe in the next three weeks, and temporarily stop bookings on the Asia-Northern Europe route in the 49th, 50th and 51st weeks. The European route has basically ended this year. Booking.
In recent months, due to the uneven recovery of the global economy, the rebound of epidemics in many countries, and the arrival of traditional transportation seasons such as Christmas and New Year, congestion has occurred in many European and American ports, but many domestic ports are extremely short of containers.
Under such circumstances, many large shipping companies impose additional charges such as congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, and shortage of containers.
Following the further surge in freight rates on the European and Mediterranean routes last week, data shows that this week, China’s export container shipping market performed stably, and transportation demand remained stable. The freight rates on most shipping routes rose, which led to a rise in the composite index.
The largest increase was the year-on-year growth rate in Northern Europe of 196.8%, the year-on-year growth rate in the Mediterranean Sea was 209.2%, and the year-on-year growth rates in the West and East of the United States were 161.6% and 78.2%, respectively. 390.5%.
Shanghai Export Container Freight Index
As Christmas approaches, shippers and their freight forwarders in Europe and North America continue to generally face the problems of container shortages, port congestion, declining capacity and soaring freight rates. Many people in the industry are talking about the current "peak season" in the container industry. "When will it end?
According to the latest analysis conducted by Lar Jensen, CEO of shipping analysis agency SeaIntelligence, on behalf of the Baltic Exchange, the answer is likely to be around the Lunar New Year holiday in February, because the options available to supply chain stakeholders are very limited.
Chinese New Year will mark the end of the "peak season" of the container industry
The root cause of the current problem is the unexpected demand for container cargo due to the global social blockade.
Jensen said that there are three key issues in meeting higher levels of demand: container, ship and port capacity constraints. He wrote: "If demand decreases, the problem will be resolved immediately."
"However, shipping companies may show their determination to reduce capacity again in order to cope with the downward trend in demand. This means that very high spot freight rates will drop, and new equipment available surcharges will disappear, but the interest rate will not It's too likely to crash." He added.
In these strange years, it is difficult for the industry to reach a consensus, but there are few signs that consumer demand will decline in the short term.
Jensen said that for many shippers and freight forwarders, the most pressing problem is the serious shortage of containers, but as China's container manufacturing plants are in full production, this problem may be alleviated before the Chinese New Year on February 12.
"This problem can be solved within a few months." He said: "The solution is that the empty containers are shipped back from Europe and North America faster, coupled with the full work of China's container factories... The current situation can be After the Spring Festival, it ended peacefully."
However, it will take longer to solve the problem of global ship and port capacity. When the capacity is insufficient, the traditional approach of shipping companies is to turn to the leasing market. However, due to the surge in demand, only a few boats are available for hire.
"As a result, the time scale for increasing capacity has changed from weeks to years now, because it will require the construction of new ships. Moreover, since the peak demand may be temporary, this solution will not help solve the problem." He wrote.
Another option for shipping companies is to increase their ship speed. Faster service can free up the structural capabilities of the shipping group, although this does increase costs.
"In general, considering the optimization of fuel, when modifying or building these ships, they cannot sail as fast as ten years ago, but there is still a certain degree of additional capacity that needs to be activated. However, this also comes at a cost. , Including the sharp increase in carbon emissions."
Finally, there is the issue of port inventory, which he admits is almost powerless in the short term.
"The surge in demand and the increase in ship arrivals have not only affected the number of containers that the port can handle, but also the number of ships that can be berthed and served."
"In addition, the surge in demand has caused larger ships to arrive with more cargo than originally planned, which means longer berth stays, a chain reaction, and subsequent ships will be delayed."
"The expansion of the port's capacity can only be measured in a few years at most. In some areas, large expansion projects can take up to 10 years."
