The sky-high freight rates, and the hot availability of space and empty containers, are forcing freight forwarding logistics companies to charter ships and open shipping routes.
Last week, it was reported on Souhang.com that freight forwarding giant DSV Panalpina bypassed the shipping company and leased three ships and a batch of empty containers to open a new China-Denmark route. The latest news is that another freight logistics company giant DHL Global Forwarding also Is considering stepping in.
Dominique von Orelli, executive vice president of DHL Global Forwarding, confirmed to the media that the company is evaluating charter plans.
DHL considers chartering for customers
A large freight forwarding company considered direct control of ship assets, but actually entered an industry that is different from its core business in terms of operation and culture. On the other hand, it also shows how popular it is to ship containers from Asia to Europe and North America. And freight forwarders desperately provide customers with adequate services.
"There may be more freight forwarders to follow suit ." Anil Vitarana, former president of United Arab Shipping, said in a post on LinkedIn.
"If there is a continuing shortage of ship capacity and containers, and major logistics providers and 3PL find it feasible to use internal resources to integrate the economic benefits of the entire supply chain, shipping companies may regret the beginning of this trend." Vitarana wrote.
He added that the logistics provider/third-party logistics provider (3PL) team includes former executives of the shipping company and can help his current employer provide the services provided by the shipping company.
Vitarana also stated that shipping companies can also cooperate with 3PL to improve service capabilities. He pointed out that CMA CGM acquired CEVA Logistics in 2019 and Maersk included DAMCO in its integrator strategy, which has further promoted the supply chain solutions of shipping companies. Program.
But not all freight forwarders consider it necessary to provide shipping services to customers.
Two other large freight forwarders, Kuehne + Nagel and DB Schenker, said that although the container market is extremely tight, they do not think such a move is necessary.
Freight forwarding giant Kuehne + Nagel expressed confidence in products based on digital solutions and cooperative relationships with shipping companies, able to provide services to customers, and will continue to provide leasing services for project cargo, rather than container customers.
DB Schenker does not believe that chartering is one of the solutions for capacity. The current shortage of ships and chartering costs have also increased. Alphaliner, a maritime analysis agency, pointed out in mid-November that most ship charters are tight. The daily charter price of 3,000-3,500 TEU ships is US$18,000, an increase of US$2,000 from the end of October.
Thorsten Meincke, DB Schenker's board member responsible for air and ocean freight, said that the resources needed to charter and manage ships are often underestimated, which will distract attention from the reliable and robust services provided by freight forwarders.
"Once you have ship assets, you have to fill them up. This will become your focus, rather than providing customers with the best solutions," Meincke said. "The current challenge facing the maritime market is largely the shortage of containers, not just the space of ships."
Indeed, other sources also believe that despite Maersk’s efforts to redefine its business model by integrating traditional shipping and freight functions, there are still huge differences in operations and culture between freight forwarders and shipping companies.
Ship asset owners must keep their ships full and require functions and costs such as ship planning and container repositioning, and freight forwarders usually rarely consider these daily affairs.
In addition, the source said that the shipping capacity chartered by DSV is small, and its cost is far from competitive with ships of 20,000 TEU or more that travel between Asia and Europe. This is why freight forwarding and shipping are almost always in different organizations, even in larger shipping companies.
Air cargo has ushered in the traditional peak season again. Not only has the volume of cargo increased sharply, but also the phenomenon of warehouse explosions and queues. The air freight prices of some routes have also increased or even doubled.
Katie Griley, vice president of operations at Griley Air Freight, revealed that the peak season is coming. Even if the cargo arrives at the local airport, it will take 4 to 8 hours for truck drivers to pick up the cargo from Los Angeles International Airport.
In this regard, the International Air Cargo Association (IATA) stated that during the surge in e-commerce in recent months, the continuous shortage of capacity due to the lack of passenger aircraft services will cause a particularly serious blow to the air cargo industry.
So what is the current domestic situation?
An executive vice president of international freight in Shanghai said that it is now in the traditional peak season for air transportation, and the recent traffic jams and queues in the unloading area of the airport logistics storage area are very serious. The liquidation should start in mid-October, and not only the volume of cargo has increased significantly, but the freight prices of major routes have also increased a lot.
In fact, not only the domestic but also the international air cargo market has been in a high boom this year. The freight rate has also been at a high level for a long time. Some routes have also risen to the highest prices in history.
2. The reason for the explosion of air freight and the skyrocketing freight?
According to a report from CCTV Finance, Dexun Group East China Managing Director Fu Keqiang said that from the second quarter to the present, the four main products that have contributed to the growth of air freight are electronic products, e-commerce channel products, personal protective equipment and auto parts. , These four products accounted for the main growth factors.
Zhao Chao, a senior analyst in the transportation industry of Changjiang Securities, said that on the one hand, the shortage of transportation capacity is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the other hand, when consumption in Europe and the United States is the most prosperous, such as Christmas and other shopping seasons, the overall freight rate should still remain. The high position will continue to rise.
So how to explain to customers in English?
1. Peak season demand soars
Paul Molinaro, head of WHO's business support and logistics operations, told Reuters that a series of factors have driven prices up, including the higher-than-usual increase in e-commerce before Christmas.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, e-commerce sales in the United States in the third quarter increased by 37% compared with the same period in 2019. According to data collected by Buy Shares, online shopping spending during the Thanksgiving weekend (including Black Friday and Cyber Monday) increased by 20% to $29.6 billion.
According to data sent to the Global Times by cross-border e-commerce platform DHgate, shipments from China to the US accounted for approximately 68% of the platform's total sales in September. Peak season for Christmas decoration transportation. The best sellers are Santa sack, solar LED string lights, Christmas snowman, artificial flowers and Christmas masks.
We can tell our customers like this:
Airline body IATA’s chief economist Brian Pearce said that Christmas demand “exaggerates the problem” of a surge in demand for airfreight.
Airline International Air Transport Association (IATA) chief economist Brian Pearce (Brian Pearce) said that the demand for Christmas prompted the explosion of international air cargo.
The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on production in countries around the world and the nearing of Christmas, a peak season for export of Chinese products to Europe and the United States, were part of the reasons for the surge in demand for airfreight.
Due to the impact of the epidemic on the production of countries around the world and the approach of Christmas, which is the peak season for China’s exports to Europe and the United States, this is also part of the reason for the explosion of air cargo.
2. Insufficient capacity
Data from the global air cargo market showed that air cargo demand continued to grow in October, but the growth rate was lower than the previous month.
IATA Director-General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac (Alexandre de Juniac) pointed out that air cargo demand is picking up, and we believe this trend will continue into the fourth quarter.
We can tell our customers like this:
Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and chief executive, notes that the biggest problem for air cargo is the lack of capacity, as much of the passenger fleet remains grounded.That will likely be exaggerated with shoppers relying on e-commerce – 80 per cent of which is delivered by air.
IATA Director-General and CEO Alexander de Juniac said: The biggest problem with air cargo is insufficient capacity, because most passenger planes are still grounded. If shoppers continue to shop online, it is no exaggeration to say that 80% of them are delivered by air.
So, the capacity crunch from the grounded aircraft will hit particularly hard in the closing months of 2020 which were part of the reasons for the surge in demand for airfreight.
Therefore, in the months before 2020, the production capacity of grounded aircraft will be particularly severe, which is also part of the reason for the explosion of air cargo.
3. Soaring freight
It is reported that due to the impact of the epidemic, the United States announced restrictions on flights from Asia and Europe, which affected the capacity of transportation and hauling of goods. Global supply chain disruptions and restrictions have forced operators to rely on commercial aircraft, which has led to a sharp increase in the rates of all-cargo airlines.
According to a report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the highly anticipated releases of electronic products such as the iPhone and Play Station 5 are traditionally shipped by air during Christmas and Black Friday.
The increase in air freight demand before the holidays caused rates to soar again. From October 12th to November 9th, freight rates between China/Hong Kong and the United States increased by nearly 46%, reaching US$7.40 per kilogram, more than double the same period last year.
American Airlines President Robert Isom said last month: “From August to September alone, we doubled our cargo volume and operated 1,900 flights, serving 32 destinations in the third quarter. Provide services locally."
We can tell our customers like this:
A surge in demand for airfreight during the pandemic, coupled with peak season needs, has pushed UPS/Fedex/DHL to once again raise fees on goods flowing from China to the foreign countries.
The surge in demand for air transportation during the epidemic, coupled with peak season demand, prompted UPS/Fedex/DHL, etc. to once again increase the charges for goods from mainland China to other countries.
With holiday season upon us, shippers are yet again forced to shell out higher prices. Decreased capacity and higher rates have been a staple this year, causing fluctuating prices in air cargo especially, and in order to secure space, shippers have paid higher rates and additional surcharges.
With the advent of the holidays, shippers are again forced to pay higher prices. Declining capacity and rising tariffs are the main things this year, especially because of the fluctuations in air cargo prices. In order to ensure space, the shipper paid higher rates and surcharges.
The International Air Transport Association Brian Pearce said at a recent press conference that all signs indicate that air cargo volumes will continue to grow for the rest of the year. And manufacturers (the main driving force of air transport) are particularly bullish. In response to this situation, what are the current measures taken by all parties?
3. What are the measures taken by all parties?
domestic
Faced with the huge increase in demand for international air cargo, airlines have also increased the delivery of international cargo flights . According to statistics, China's international cargo flights increased substantially at the end of October, reaching about 2.3 times the same period last year. All airlines have invested more cargo capacity, and the frequency of both all-cargo aircraft and "passenger-to-cargo" aircraft has increased significantly.
Wang Jianmin, deputy general manager of Eastern Airlines Logistics Co., Ltd., said that the number of "passenger-to-cargo" flights increased significantly in October and November, and there were more than 100 more flights in October compared with September. In November, the number of "passenger-to-cargo" flights increased to 1,000. Around, a substantial increase from October. In November, the utilization rate of freighters reached a peak of 14 hours per day, and some exceeded 14 hours.
foreign
Lu Dongmei, China's chief representative of Lufthansa, said that in order to meet the growing demand for cargo capacity, Lufthansa has turned passenger planes into cargo planes and filled their abdominal cavity with cargo that can fly around the world. In addition to the all-cargo operations 20 cargo flights a week, but China also conducted five weekly flights on passenger aircraft turnaround.
Canadian officials said that due to the impact of the epidemic, its e-commerce market is growing, and there is a chronic shortage of cargo aircraft. Air Canada plans to convert the Boeing 767, which has recently withdrawn from passenger service, to be able to carry large containers and pallets on the main deck. The premise is that the carrier needs to reach an agreement with the pilot.
DHL Express said that due to the grounding of most passenger aircraft, the abdominal muscle capacity is insufficient, although there are plans to provide air charter services to serve certain major markets. But this year still adds six aircraft, which is to overcome the air cargo capacity restrictions caused during the epidemic.
Finally, remind foreign trade friends who are shipping by air in the near future to communicate with customers on capacity in a timely manner, and to be cautious in quoting (each airline may adjust prices frequently) to avoid unnecessary losses.
In recent months, the container market has experienced extreme conditions. High freight rates and container shortages have plagued the market and will continue for some time. In addition to the short plug of the reefer, the import and export of the reefer will also be a new challenge.
Large companies and logistics companies that need to ship refrigerated goods must be prepared, and shipping companies have announced that they will stop receiving freezers.
It is reported that the shipping company Hapag-Lloyd announced that it will suspend all 40' freezer bookings in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Hungary and the Czech Republic until the end of December 2020.
"Our goal is to support all confirmed export orders, but reservations may be cancelled for individual cases. We will try our best to provide all customers with the best service, but we expect that the situation will remain very tense in the coming weeks." Herb Roth wrote in a statement.
"This once again shows that the market is facing severe container equipment challenges. This is a prominent problem that affects the supply chain in many places, not just the supply chain in Asia." Shipping analyst and chief executive of Sea-Intelligence Consulting Officer Lars Jensen said.
In addition to Europe, Hapag-Lloyd announced on December 3 that the port was congested due to stricter customs inspection and disinfection of imported food entering Huangpu. From now on, we will temporarily stop accepting reservations for refrigerated containers entering Huangpu Port in China until further notice.
In view of the above situation, customers are kindly requested to provide written confirmation as soon as possible. You can have the following options:
(1) If circumstances permit, accept delivery at the current port of discharge;
(2) Transfer your refrigerated container to another port/destination;
(3) Transport your refrigerated container back to the port of departure;
(4) If there is no instruction from the customer, Hapag-Lloyd reserves the right to make all necessary arrangements.
Please note that for any of the above options, all additional costs, risks and liabilities related to storage or transportation of the goods after unloading will be borne by the owner of the goods.
At the same time, Hapag-Lloyd also announced that it will temporarily stop receiving orders for imported reefer containers from Busan, South Korea to Tianjin, China , with immediate effect.
In addition, my country has recently increased its inspection of imported refrigerated goods, making the inspection of refrigerated goods more stringent and time-consuming. Ports are facing problems such as slow pickup of containers and port congestion.
Ocean Network ONE stated in the announcement that it will suspend the delivery of refrigerated containers to Huangpu Port from November 26. In addition to the latest announcement of ONE, Xiamen, Fuzhou and Fuqing have also suspended receiving imported refrigerated containers.
ONE stated that due to the stricter inspection and disinfection requirements imposed by customs on refrigerated containers imported into Xiamen/Fuzhou/Fuqing, the delivery of freezer containers has been slow and is facing congestion.
In view of this situation, from the date of shipment on December 8, 2020, ONE will stop accepting all orders for refrigerated goods destined for Fuzhou and Fuqing, China , until further notice.
Starting from the loading date on December 9, 2020, ONE will stop accepting all reservations for refrigerated cargo to Xiamen, China or for transshipment via Xiamen , until further notice.
▲ONE announcement
For containers in transit, ONE strongly recommends that customers consider changing the destination to another port, especially for time-sensitive goods, such as fresh and refrigerated goods.
For refrigerated containers that have been transshipped to Xiamen, or refrigerated containers that have been detained at the transshipment port for further transportation to Xiamen, please note that all related expenses will be borne by the consignee and paid upon delivery.
For containers that have been transshipped to Fuzhou/Fuqing or detained at a transit port, once the Fuzhou/Fuqing feeder space is available, a specific surcharge will be charged at the time of loading.
The shift of manufacturing from China to Vietnam has also put pressure on the country's container supply chain.
According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.4%. As many other countries fall into recession due to the epidemic blockade, Vietnam is expected to become one of the fastest growing economies in the world in 2020.
According to Simon Vandekerckove, general manager of freight logistics giant Geodis Vietnam, procurement in Vietnam is entering a new stage. The factory is overbooked. We see that overseas customers have high expectations for Vietnam, but Vietnam does not have the necessary legal or logistics basis. Facilities to achieve this.
"Vietnam needs a lot of investment to increase new productivity and infrastructure to cope with increasing demand, and because customers want to reduce the financial risk of sourcing from only one region, Vietnam is likely to become an outsourcing region for other ASEAN countries such as Thailand and Indonesia. one."
At the same time, the shortage of global capacity and container equipment is putting pressure on Vietnam's main container ports.
A local freight forwarder in Vietnam said that the inland river terminal in Ho Chi Minh City has been congested for a long time, and the current market conditions have increased the waiting time. The export container yard capacity is 120%, and ships need to wait two to three days to find a berth.
He added: “In Cat Lai, all shipping companies’ outbound volumes have increased dramatically, but due to lack of space, about 10%-20% of the cargo must be transferred to the next ship each time.”
Vietnam’s largest deep-water port, Cai Mep, is letting ships wait 50 kilometers away. In October, the Cai Mep International Terminal (CMIT) operated by APM Terminal received the 20,000 teu Margrethe Maersk call, which is 2M One of the direct trans-Pacific routes.
The port used to have very large container ships docked (temporarily docked), but the current demand trend may cause more and more ships to come here. Next year, CMA CGM will cooperate with local operator Gemadept to open the newest terminal in Cai Mep.
Nevertheless, the current shortage of space and container equipment and the sharp rise in costs are still a huge challenge.
Vandekerckove explained: "According to all types of freight FAK and spot freight rates, bookings from Vietnam require two to three weeks in advance to secure containers and space. To the west coast of the United States, freight rates have increased by 140%, and the Mediterranean area has increased by 70%. , The Nordic region rose by 15%."
Mr. Vandekerckove said that in most cases, air freight is not an option, but road freight provides flexible options for some customers.
Regarding the concealment of import and export goods, let’s look at a case first:
On August 4, a violent explosion occurred in the port area of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, on the evening of the 4th. Preliminary statistics showed that at least 100 people were killed and more than 4,000 were injured in the explosion. The Prime Minister of Lebanon confirmed that up to 2,750 tons of explosive chemical ammonium nitrate stored in a port warehouse had exploded.
These ammonium nitrates were piled up in Beirut's port area for six years "without the necessary safety measures"!
It is understood that ammonium nitrate may explode when it is shaken or close to the fire source. The conditions of the explosion are not difficult to achieve. Nitric acid will decompose at about 180°C.
Prior to this, ammonium nitrate has caused too many major explosion accidents. Developed countries such as the United States, Britain, and France have all experienced the horror of the ammonium nitrate explosion. Bloody events are disasters for every country encountered, even for humans.
Everyone must have learned about this explosion from the overwhelming reports. However, this major accident called Lebanon’s national disaster is only one of many port and cargo ship accidents. It is not difficult to find that there have been several foreign explosions in the past. It happened in ports or in cargo ships or trains.
This is bound to be reminiscent of the safety of imported and exported goods, and under-reporting is a thing most hated by various cross-border companies.
Customs declaration: This batch of goods are toothbrushes.
Glass: Who is your name?
Customs declaration: This box of goods is paper towels.
Bath towel: You insult people!
...
These are all concealment of ordinary goods, and may only involve smuggling and other issues, but a concealment of dangerous goods is like sending an untimely bomb to freight forwarders, shipping companies, and port workers. Once an accident occurs, the consequences are disastrous.
Consequences of concealment of general cargo:
In order to evade tax, deliberately concealing part of the taxable goods constitutes smuggling. The specific legal consequences should be determined in conjunction with the amount of tax evasion.
Consequences of under-reporting of dangerous goods:
Serious accidents caused by improper storage and stowage locations; damage to the safety of the crew and the vessel; use of water guns to extinguish water damage to other containers and cargo in the cabin; delays to the entire route; huge operating costs, investigation costs, etc. Etc.; fines required by local maritime customs; customs detaining boxes for several years; may be classified as criminal smuggling and other crimes; pollution to the environment...
Measures to prevent false reports
1. Strengthen professional and safety knowledge education
As a cross-border industry practitioner, we must strengthen the training and education of hazardous materials and safety knowledge, and improve our professional service capabilities.
2. Strengthen the credit review of shippers
Strengthen the credit review of the shipper, and find out the actual source of the goods for the goods whose factory address and name are relatively acceptable. In many foreign ports, concealment of goods is a criminal responsibility, so practitioners must take it seriously.
3. Ensure clear declaration of product name
Make sure that the shipper’s declaration of the cargo brand is clear. If the declaration of the cargo name is vague and general, you must ask clearly. Some chemicals are suspected of being dangerous goods, and the shipper must be required to provide chemical safety instructions and corresponding test reports.
4. New customer information is true
In addition, you need to pay attention to whether the information of new customers is true, especially those new customers who do not need to provide customs declaration, warehousing, and towing services.
5. The product name is inconsistent with the bill of lading
If the product name is inconsistent with the bill of lading, the freight forwarder Yaao will take the initiative to check the customs declaration product name to ensure that the three orders of this batch of goods are consistent.
The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) threatened to use all its possible powers to overturn the decision of international shipping companies to abandon the export of American agricultural products and relocate empty containers instead.
The shortage of containers and market forces have caused some shipping companies to cut the container quotas of traditional American exporters to alleviate some serious problems in the supply chain. This has had a huge impact on US agricultural exports. Reports say that some cargo owners’ quotas have been reduced from 300 containers per month to three.
Under the vigorous lobbying of the U.S. Agricultural Transportation Union and its partners, FMC announced that it would investigate these measures.
"Some shipping companies have already stated that they will no longer deploy empty containers to inland agricultural areas of the United States. Instead, they are speeding up the delivery of empty containers back to Asia." FMC Chairman Michael Khouri said at the Global Maritime Conference.
"This approach is to keep U.S. agricultural exports out of the global market. We are investigating and possible response measures, including reviewing whether the actions of these shipping companies are in full compliance with the Shipping Act, and more specifically, the Act. "Prohibited Acts" clauses in the "Prohibited Acts"," he said.
At the end of October, the shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has decided to suspend export bookings for soybeans and other agricultural products from the United States in order to return empty containers to Asia to load imported goods from the United States instead of shipping containers to the inland United States.
Earlier this month, the Special Soybean and Grain Alliance (SSGA), a US agricultural transportation organization, stated that the lack of containers and its members’ inability to load exported goods is prompting Asian customers to investigate other food buyers.
SSGA Executive Director Eric Wenberg said: "Our members have heard from Asian customers that they doubt that the United States and its agricultural exporters will continue to be reliable suppliers based on the difficulties of today's multimodal transportation."
"Marine shipping companies need to work with us to solve these transportation problems and ship our goods back to Asian ports. Otherwise, the United States has been a reputation for exporting high-quality food to foreign customers and we must take action." He added.
Magic 2020, the shipping industry has breaking news every day, and it always affects the hearts of foreign trade forwarders.
Today, the Moments of Friends screened the video of the driver grabbing the box. Truck drivers flocked to "queue" to pick up the cabinet. You earn and I grab one box, and they are almost "fighting".
This is a real response. Even if the shipping company normally releases the cabin, there is no guarantee that there will be boxes. It is difficult to find a box in China.
Another heavy news is that CMA CGM will directly stop accepting bookings from Asia to Europe in the next three weeks, and temporarily stop bookings on the Asia-Northern Europe route in the 49th, 50th and 51st weeks. The European route has basically ended this year. Booking.
In recent months, due to the uneven recovery of the global economy, the rebound of epidemics in many countries, and the arrival of traditional transportation seasons such as Christmas and New Year, congestion has occurred in many European and American ports, but many domestic ports are extremely short of containers.
Under such circumstances, many large shipping companies impose additional charges such as congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, and shortage of containers.
Following the further surge in freight rates on the European and Mediterranean routes last week, data shows that this week, China’s export container shipping market performed stably, and transportation demand remained stable. The freight rates on most shipping routes rose, which led to a rise in the composite index.
The largest increase was the year-on-year growth rate in Northern Europe of 196.8%, the year-on-year growth rate in the Mediterranean Sea was 209.2%, and the year-on-year growth rates in the West and East of the United States were 161.6% and 78.2%, respectively. 390.5%.
Shanghai Export Container Freight Index
As Christmas approaches, shippers and their freight forwarders in Europe and North America continue to generally face the problems of container shortages, port congestion, declining capacity and soaring freight rates. Many people in the industry are talking about the current "peak season" in the container industry. "When will it end?
According to the latest analysis conducted by Lar Jensen, CEO of shipping analysis agency SeaIntelligence, on behalf of the Baltic Exchange, the answer is likely to be around the Lunar New Year holiday in February, because the options available to supply chain stakeholders are very limited.
Chinese New Year will mark the end of the "peak season" of the container industry
The root cause of the current problem is the unexpected demand for container cargo due to the global social blockade.
Jensen said that there are three key issues in meeting higher levels of demand: container, ship and port capacity constraints. He wrote: "If demand decreases, the problem will be resolved immediately."
"However, shipping companies may show their determination to reduce capacity again in order to cope with the downward trend in demand. This means that very high spot freight rates will drop, and new equipment available surcharges will disappear, but the interest rate will not It's too likely to crash." He added.
In these strange years, it is difficult for the industry to reach a consensus, but there are few signs that consumer demand will decline in the short term.
Jensen said that for many shippers and freight forwarders, the most pressing problem is the serious shortage of containers, but as China's container manufacturing plants are in full production, this problem may be alleviated before the Chinese New Year on February 12.
"This problem can be solved within a few months." He said: "The solution is that the empty containers are shipped back from Europe and North America faster, coupled with the full work of China's container factories... The current situation can be After the Spring Festival, it ended peacefully."
However, it will take longer to solve the problem of global ship and port capacity. When the capacity is insufficient, the traditional approach of shipping companies is to turn to the leasing market. However, due to the surge in demand, only a few boats are available for hire.
"As a result, the time scale for increasing capacity has changed from weeks to years now, because it will require the construction of new ships. Moreover, since the peak demand may be temporary, this solution will not help solve the problem." He wrote.
Another option for shipping companies is to increase their ship speed. Faster service can free up the structural capabilities of the shipping group, although this does increase costs.
"In general, considering the optimization of fuel, when modifying or building these ships, they cannot sail as fast as ten years ago, but there is still a certain degree of additional capacity that needs to be activated. However, this also comes at a cost. , Including the sharp increase in carbon emissions."
Finally, there is the issue of port inventory, which he admits is almost powerless in the short term.
"The surge in demand and the increase in ship arrivals have not only affected the number of containers that the port can handle, but also the number of ships that can be berthed and served."
"In addition, the surge in demand has caused larger ships to arrive with more cargo than originally planned, which means longer berth stays, a chain reaction, and subsequent ships will be delayed."
"The expansion of the port's capacity can only be measured in a few years at most. In some areas, large expansion projects can take up to 10 years."
The container throughput of global ports continued to increase in October, with a total volume of 15.2 million TEUs that month. So far in 2020, the container throughput has reached 137.7 million TEUs, which is only 2.7% lower than in 2019.
The off-season is not "light"
The latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) shows that the traditional freight off-season in 2020 will not be "light", and the performance will exceed expectations, and the market demand will continue until the fourth quarter . In October, the trans-Pacific shipping volume dropped by 4% from September to 2 million TEUs, but it was still a quarter higher than the same period in 2019. The demand is so great that although operators have been increasing capacity, there is still a gap.
Demand on the Asia-Europe route has also recovered, although its performance is not as strong as the Pacific route. In October, the shipping volume of the Asia-Europe route was 1.4 million TEUs, an increase of 7% over 2019. However, from the perspective of the whole year, the 13.9 million TEUs so far in 2020 is still 7% lower than 2019.
Equipment gap is nearly 1 million TEU
The Asia-Europe route is currently facing the same problem as the Pacific route, that is, the shortage of container equipment and capacity keeps the freight rate at a high level. Sea-Intelligence analysts said that the problem of container shortages is very difficult. The imbalance of east-west traffic on the Pacific route has made the shortage of equipment worse . The current North American imports account for most of the global increase in shipping containers, while North American exports have Weakening. Under normal circumstances, the imbalance of east-west shipping volume will usually cause a monthly deficit of about 2.5 million TEUs in Asia. This gap is filled by empty containers from other regions . But in October 2020, this number soared to 3.4 million TEUs, which means that the equipment gap has reached nearly 1 million TEUs.
Sea intelligence believes that the lack of empty containers is the primary problem faced by shippers. However, this problem is currently difficult to solve, and there is no way to quickly mobilize 1 million additional empty containers, especially when many ports are currently facing congestion. Analysts predict that this situation will continue until at least early February 2021.
After a further surge last week, the spot freight rate for containers from Asia to Northern Europe is now 130% higher than the beginning of the year, up 200% year-on-year. The Far East-Europe trade route is still under tremendous pressure, and the freight rate will continue to rise further.
In the current peak season, the influx of imported goods from Asia into the United States does not seem to have eased. Los Angeles and Long Beach are still in a state of collapse and paralysis. There are as many as 20 ships lining up near the west coast, waiting for the empty space in LA Long Beach Port to unload.
Australian ports remain congested, with more than 75,000 teu stranded in Sydney.
Freight rates in the Asian intra-route market remained stable, but from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by a staggering 390.5%.
Europe-to-land route : The North European spot freight rate of the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) just released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange increased by 13.5% to US$2,374 per TEU, and the Mediterranean freight rate increased by US$165 to US$2384, spot The freight rate increased by 7.4%. It is worth noting that the year-on-year growth rate in Northern Europe was 196.8%, and the year-on-year growth rate in the Mediterranean was 209.2%. But in fact, the market freight rate is much higher than this.
A Shanghai-based non-vessel carrier said that several shipping companies are currently offering more than US$6,000/40-foot container to Rotterdam and more than US$8,000/40-foot container to the UK.
A freight forwarder in China stated that the carriers on this route are now purely focused on maximizing freight revenue, regardless of all other agreements. He said: "Shipping companies only give priority to higher-priced spaces-whoever pays more will get the space."
Christoph Baumeister, senior trade manager for Flexport Asia/ISC-Europe, said the situation for Asian shippers was “worse than week after week”. He added: "The Far East-Northern Europe/Southern Europe trade route is still under tremendous pressure, and freight rates will rise further this week."
Moreover, according to data from the freight benchmark company Xeneta, the current average price of short-term market contracts in Asia and Europe of three months or less is 200% higher than a year ago, at $4,831 per 40 feet.
Although Xeneta’s long-term contract freight data showed an increase of 28% to US$1,648 per 40 feet, it pointed out that despite the peak contract season, few deals have been concluded because shippers and carriers think it’s not the time.
In the trans-Pacific region , the spot freight rate remained basically unchanged last week and stabilized at a record level. According to SCFI data, the spot price on the west coast of the United States rose by US$68 to US$3947 per 40 feet, while the port price on the east coast fell by US$8. To $4,700 per 40 feet. The year-on-year growth rates of the West Coast and East Coast of the United States were 161.6% and 78.2%, respectively.
Since mid-September, due to the intervention of Chinese regulatory agencies, the spot market on this route has remained stable, and shipping companies hope to obtain guaranteed income from their premiums.
As the influx of merchandise imports from Asia into the United States during the peak season did not seem to ease, the Port of Los Angeles data confirmed that the port's imports in the 50th and 51st weeks increased by 37% and 54% year-on-year respectively.
The continued growth of imports has put tremendous pressure on the San Pedro Bay ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach. Freightos Chief Marketing Officer Eytan Buchman said: "There are reports that as many as 20 ships are lining up near the west coast, waiting for the unloading of empty spaces in the Port of Long Beach, LA. Retailers are eager to put these goods on the shelves before the holidays."
As for Australia and New Zealand routes , with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation and the continuous growth of transportation demand during the traditional peak season, the market freight rate has increased. According to the SCFI index, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharge) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port of Australia and New Zealand was US$2490/TEU, up 2.5% from the previous period. But the Australian shipping business is currently in a "state that has never been so bad."
The continued "chaos" in the Australian container supply chain will mean that some retailers' shelves will be empty during Christmas.
The impact of supply chain delays caused by the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) strike in early October continues. The shipping company stated that the disruption of shipping schedules caused a backlog of "8 to 10 weeks" delays (8 weeks of delay means that retailers will not have inventory "until January of next year"), but the union denies that this is the reason. Rather, it points to the increase in demand during the peak season.
According to the Freight and Trade Alliance (F&TA), trade imbalances, resulting in a large surplus of empty containers and lack of storage areas for storing these containers, are still the main problems hindering the supply chain. F&TA Director Paul Zalai said: “Currently, it is estimated that the imbalance of containers is 75,000 teu, which is stranded in Sydney’s empty container yard and operator’s warehouse. The surplus of empty containers will cause Sydney’s logistics to fall from the current congestion state to an unsolvable situation. deadlock."
The peak season demand has increased the spot freight rate from China to Melbourne to US$2490, compared with US$1648 in mid-October. Paul Zalai believes that the country’s shipping industry has “never seen such a bad situation.” He explained: “Our ports are congested, services are limited, freight prices are at record highs, detention, congestion and terminal access surcharges continue to increase. "At the same time, similar shipping delays have also affected importers in the Tasman region. Due to the chain reaction caused by port congestion in Australia, the Port of Auckland in New Zealand experienced delays this year.
The market freight rates of intra-Asia routes also remained stable last week, but from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by an astonishing 390.5%.
Although these are eye-catching figures, it is important not to forget that 65% to 75% of all goods are transported on the basis of contract freight rates rather than spot market freight rates. However, due to the exhaustion of the number of contracts (many contracts are in unexpected periods when consumer demand is out of control) the rest tends to the spot freight market. When contract negotiations restart next year, the strong bull market will also benefit shipping companies.
Andy Lane of CTI Consulting in Singapore commented: “There is still one month before the new Asian-European contract. This is under the background of record-breaking spot freight rates. Prices may rise sharply, which will have a real impact on the market."
Against the backdrop of the global raging COVID-19 pandemic, this year's global container shipping industry seems to be sitting on a magical "seesaw". On one side, there is a shortage of containers and high freight rates, and the other is port congestion . The two issues alternate across oceans and continents, torturing the fragile nerves of cargo owners.
However, although industry analysts sing the recovery of the operating industry, industry insiders are still cautious about the "boom" that occurred during the epidemic, especially after the middle of next year, the market supply and demand trend is still like a fog, and there are still larger ones. Uncertainty.
The problem of shortage of containers has attracted the attention of the Ministry of Commerce. On December 3, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that, on the basis of the preliminary work, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to promote the increase of transportation capacity, support the acceleration of container return, improve operation efficiency, support container manufacturers to expand production capacity, and increase The intensity of market supervision, efforts to stabilize market prices, provide strong logistics support for the steady development of foreign trade.
The epidemic caused port failure
The problem of container shortages is happening alternately across the Pacific and the Atlantic this year.
According to Bloomberg data, in the first quarter of this year, European and American ports such as Hamburg in Germany, Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Antwerp in Belgium, and Long Beach and Los Angeles in the United States have all fallen into a state of extreme shortage of containers. The port container holdings have reached a record low, while Chinese ports are stranded in a large number of containers. Waiting for quarantine. In the third quarter, the situation was reversed. The overseas epidemic was severe and the port was understaffed. According to statistics, the Port of Sydney, Australia had piled up at least 50,000 TEUs of containers to be processed. Many ports were charged with congestion charges. Hard to find" status.
Generally speaking, problems such as shortage of containers and port congestion are routine problems in the industry, which are easy to appear in peak seasons, and are also related to port processing efficiency. However, the failure of port operations caused by the epidemic has undoubtedly extended the loading and unloading time of containers.
According to a reporter from the Securities Times, due to the need for epidemic prevention, the Port of Los Angeles has temporarily reduced the number of dockers and port personnel by about one-third, and the loading and unloading of ships has been greatly affected. Due to the continuing effects of shortages of equipment and prolonged loading and unloading time in ports, a large number of imported containers have been backlogged in European and American ports, congested terminals and poor container turnover, which has hindered cargo transportation.
The global container shortage difference can be seen from the Container Availability Index (Container Availability Index) released by the container source traceability platform xChang: In July, the supply of 40-foot containers at the Port of Los Angeles was insufficient; by the end of September, the port’s container availability index had increased by 4 times. Oversupply; since September, Qingdao Port (6.110, -0.02, -0.33%) usable containers have begun to decline, and by October the usable index of 40-foot containers has fallen by half, and 20-foot containers have also been in short supply.
Strong Asian exports become an important driving force for recovery
Looking at the whole year, the geographical imbalance of the shortage of containers is more significant, which is directly related to the timing of the outbreak.
According to data provided by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in mid-March, the number of global container ship arrivals began to fall below the level of 2019 and did not start to recover until the third week of June. This timetable basically coincides with the World Health Organization’s listing of the new crown pneumonia as a pandemic and the deteriorating epidemic in Europe and the United States. On the other hand, the number of container ship arrivals at Chinese ports has gradually recovered since June, which is also in line with China’s The lock release time corresponds to that.
In terms of absolute volume comparison, most regions started to recover from the third quarter, but globally, the port container ship berthing volume in early August was still 3% lower than the same period last year, and North America and Europe were 16.3% lower than the same period last year. And 13.2%. In contrast, the number of port calls in China (including Hong Kong) has exceeded the level of last year, an increase of 4.1%.
China's shipping import and export took the lead in the recovery. The fundamental factor is that the domestic epidemic prevention and control has achieved major results, and the production side has taken the lead in recovery, effectively making up for the global supply gap caused by the impact of the epidemic, and also supporting the continuous growth of exports.
China Customs statistics show that in the first and second quarters of this year, China’s import and export growth rates were -6.5% and -0.2%, respectively. They were reversed in the third quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The total value of imports and exports reached 8.88 trillion yuan. Stable, the cumulative growth rate turned negative to positive. It is worth noting that due to the changes in lifestyles caused by the epidemic, the export of notebook computers and home appliances has increased; the export of epidemic prevention materials has also risen rapidly. The export of textiles including masks reached 828.78 billion yuan, an increase of 37.5%; medical materials and medicines, The export of medical instruments and equipment increased by 21.8% and 48.2% respectively.
According to information provided by UNCTAD to a reporter from the Securities Times, although China was the first country to be affected by the epidemic, in the first quarter, China’s overseas trade, transportation and exports were not interrupted, so the transportation at Chinese ports remained unobstructed; on the contrary; It was in the second quarter that due to the escalating blockades of various countries, economic activities were restricted, and the transportation of logistics personnel was blocked, leading to a sharp drop in imports from various countries. At this time, the impact on port operations increased significantly. Subsequently, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States became more and more serious, and the key figures of the centralized transportation industry also bottomed out in the middle of the year. At the end of May, the World Ports Association pointed out that the number of container ships calling at about 45% worldwide dropped by 5% to 25%, and most of the cancelled ships came from the Far East route.
According to data from Alphaliner, an international shipping consulting and analysis agency, the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the first half of the year has reduced the chartering revenue of large container ships by half. Starting in the third quarter, global shipping capacity has recovered, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, reaching 123 million TEUs, strong exports from Asia Become an important driving force for recovery.
In terms of the capital market, the share prices of listed companies in the A-share centralized transportation industry have also started in June and have risen significantly in the third quarter. CIMC (14.830, 0.20, 1.37%) and COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (9.680, 0.06, 0.62%) The performance of related listed companies also increased substantially in the third quarter.
Strong demand for containers is expected to continue into the first quarter of next year
Returning to the shipping industry itself, many shipping companies around the world took the initiative to suspend shipping under the influence of the epidemic in the first half of this year.
As the world’s top five airlines, Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, pointed out at the third-quarter performance briefing that in April this year, demand suddenly dropped by 20% and lost 200 million U.S. dollars per month, so it must be suspended to reduce 60% of the cost. He pointed out: "The market at this stage is driven by demand, not by inventory replenishment. The entire market is trying to get empty containers back to where they are needed."
In terms of container freight rates, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange have set new highs. On November 27, CCFI quoted 1198.72 points, an increase of 4.6% over the previous week; SCFI quoted 2048.27 points, an increase of 109.95 points over the previous week. Under the strong demand, the price of offshore export containers also rose sharply. On November 27, the export container price of Southeast Asia routes was quoted at 995.67 points, an increase of nearly 20% over the previous week.
According to the analysis of China Securities Regulatory Commission, the supply side has not launched large-scale capacity at this stage, while the demand side has continued to grow rapidly, which will become the fundamental reason for the increase in freight rates in the transportation industry. Although the epidemic has led to pessimistic global economic expectations, in fact, the European and American manufacturing PMI index is still in the expansion range driven by policy, which provides economic fundamental support for the increase in freight rates.
However, someone from a shipping company pointed out to a reporter from the Securities Times that in the last 10 to 12 years, the shipping industry has not made any money or even recovered the cost of capital; long-term low-price competition is difficult to promote the healthy development of the industry.
So, can the epidemic promote the long-term recovery of the industry? Most people in the industry are cautious about this.
Rolf Habben Jansen pointed out that the current market is very, very strong, "but it is illogical to think that this situation will continue in the next few years." He expects that the situation will change in the next three or four quarters, and the company needs to be prepared to act quickly.
Container shipping companies and leasing companies also told reporters that the outlook is difficult to predict. Although the strong demand for containers is expected to continue into the first quarter of next year, after the middle of next year, there is still greater uncertainty in the market supply and demand trends. If European and American countries are still under lockdown or vaccine research and development and promotion fall short of expectations, and the macro economy falls into a sustained recession, the good growth momentum of the container transportation industry may not be able to maintain.
