Container xChange said that the shortage of container equipment that has lasted for several months is expected to end because the container availability index (CAx) is undergoing positive changes.
According to Container xChange analysis, the Chinese New Year may become a turning point , with the 20-foot and 40-foot dry cargo index increasing to 0.34 and 0.37 respectively, indicating that the availability of empty containers is much higher than last month. CAx data comes from millions of containers tracked by Container xChange. Container xChange CEO Johannes Schlingmeier said: “An index of 0.5 indicates market balance, and a value below 0.5 indicates a shortage of containers.” Container xChange pointed out that although the latest data in January was well below 0.5, indicating that there is still a shortage of container equipment, but 20 feet and The 40-foot container data has begun to approach the normal container shortage level in China's main export markets.
David Amezquita, the company's director of data, said:
Compared with December 2020, the availability of 20-foot containers in January 2021 has increased by 37.5%, and the availability of 40-foot containers has increased by 200%, which is a positive trend.
Data from xChange shows that in the past few months, there has been an extreme shortage of containers across China. In Shanghai, which has always been in short supply, the index reached a record low in December 2020, of which the 40-foot container availability index was only 0.13. The company said that as China's container manufacturing plants are running at full capacity to expand production capacity, coupled with the shipping company's efforts to transport empty containers back to China, the Chinese New Year may become an important turning point.
With the substantial increase in container supply, Shanghai Port's container availability index is returning to normal levels. Other ports in China are also undergoing positive changes. Taking Qingdao Port as an example, the availability index of a 20-foot container even reached 0.5. The container availability index of other major Asian hub ports such as Singapore Port, Navassiwa Port and Port Klang also showed the same trend. Compared with December 2020, the availability index of standard containers at the Port of Singapore in January 2021 has increased by 58%, Port Nawahiwa has increased by 35%, and Port Klang has increased by 54%.
There are signs that the container availability index will remain stable in the coming weeks. Until mid-February, the availability of 20-foot boxes will stabilize at around 0.35, and the availability of 40-foot boxes will stabilize at around 0.38.
In the past two months, the cost of transporting goods from China to Europe has more than quadrupled, hitting a record high, due to the pandemic disrupting global trade and the shortage of empty containers.
Data from shippers and importers show that the freight for transporting a 40-foot container from Asia to Northern Europe has risen from approximately US$2,000 in November last year to more than US$9,000.
Lars Jensen, CEO of maritime consulting company SeaIntelligence, said that the reason for the increase in freight rates is the market's competition for limited resources-containers.
In the first half of 2020, due to a sudden slowdown in global trade due to the epidemic blockade, shipping companies have suspended large-scale shipping and thousands of empty containers are stranded in Europe and the United States. In the second half of the year, when Western countries' demand for Asian-made goods rebounded, competition among shippers for available containers pushed up freight rates.
John Butler, Chairman of the World Shipping Council, said, "The freight volume has dropped from a sharp decline to soaring to the highest level in history, and the effective handling capacity of the terminal has exceeded the upper limit."
He added that the congestion in the port has caused freight rates to rise, and shipping companies charge additional fees to compensate for the longer waiting time.
British freight forwarding company Edge Worldwide CEO Philip Edge said that some shipping companies charge US$12,000 per container, much higher than the US$2,000 in October last year.
The British Household Electrical Appliance Manufacturers Association stated in a statement, “According to member companies’ disclosures, shipping costs have increased by more than 300% since 2020. Especially for some commodities, the increase in shipping costs has exceeded the net increase Profit. Therefore, these costs will have to be passed on to the end user."
The owner of a leisure goods importer in Manchester said that the shortage of containers is having a “huge impact” on his business, and some orders placed in November are still waiting to be shipped. "The question is, is it to pay $12,000 now and pass the cost on to the customer, or to wait at the risk of exhausting inventory?"
Economists say that such interruptions and delays are beginning to affect global supply chains. Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, said that "transportation pressure is accumulating and may increase further."
A recent survey by IHS Markit found that in December last year, the delivery time of manufacturing suppliers in the Eurozone reached the worst level since the peak of the pandemic lockdown in April. Shipping delays and general commodity shortages were "widely mentioned" by suppliers. .
The companies surveyed stated that they are consuming inventory of raw materials and semi-finished products, resulting in a decline in inventory.
Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, said that "supply shortages and rising freight rates may slightly curb trade growth."
On the occasion of the Chinese New Year in February, the Asian manufacturing industry slowed down. Shipping companies hope to use this time to solve the problem of increasing backlog orders, which will temporarily cool freight rates.
However, BIMCO chief shipping analyst Peter Sand said that the shortage of containers may continue for a long time in 2021. Although the shipping company has ordered new containers, in his opinion, such a move is "too small and too late."
Lars Jensen also believes that although freight rates may drop slightly, "there are still a lot of goods waiting to be transported."
John Butler pointed out that only when epidemic-related restrictions are reduced and people have more diverse service choices, the pressure on the maritime supply chain can be alleviated, but no one can say when it can be improved.
The air cargo market has ushered in a new year, but there is no sign of cooling. International transportation activities usually weaken after the holiday season, but due to the unusual air transportation mode and the severe shortage of air transportation caused by the new coronavirus pandemic, demand and freight rates remain high.
The logistics company expects that the air cargo volume will not decline before the Spring Festival, because the manufacturer plans to continue operations during the traditional holidays.
The latest comprehensive statistics of World ACD and CLIVE Data Services in December show that compared with 2019, air cargo volume has fallen by only 3.7% to 5% respectively. These data show that the air cargo industry has recovered a lot since it bottomed out in May last year, when demand dropped by nearly 40%.
The demand for air transportation is largely driven by continuous inventory replenishment, the inventory-to-sales ratio of consumer goods is close to the lowest level in history, and a saturated marine container market. Analysts and logistics providers said that the congestion of ports and railways and the shortage of empty containers continue to push up shipping prices and cause serious delays, especially for main routes from Asia, which promotes a further increase in aviation demand.
The goods sought for air transportation include automotive equipment, consumer goods purchased online, and medical supplies related to COVID-19. Airplanes are also used to transport the new crown vaccine, because a large number of vaccines are transported by land, and sometimes only a few containers are needed for each flight, so it is not clear how many ordinary goods they replace. Nevertheless, when the capacity is tight, the vaccine will be given priority to board the plane.
San Francisco-based freight forwarding company Flexport said in a customer advisory update report that the remaining demand for game consoles and smartphone product releases in the fourth quarter will increase capacity constraints by mid-February.
Bruce Chan, vice president of global logistics at investment bank Stifel, said in a monthly comment that shippers are also more inclined to use air operations as an inventory buffer because their forecasting models have been completely overturned by the epidemic. He wrote: “Predicting consumption patterns and when they will stabilize is a huge fear, and the path forward is hardly linear, especially when the new coronavirus reignites and the government further implements blockades and border closures.”
In addition, many Chinese manufacturers announced that they will continue production during the Lunar New Year period from February 12 to 26. Factories are usually closed for 10 days or longer so that workers can celebrate with their families, but because the Chinese government encourages workers to celebrate the New Year on the spot, many factories will continue to operate this year. Flexport said this could create a backlog, as many freighter flights were cancelled a few weeks ago due to the expected full transport. Any backlog will depend on whether the factory continues to produce or take vacations at home.
The demand for air freight is so strong that experts predict that by the end of March the market will return to the level before the epidemic. This trend is in sharp contrast to the passenger traffic of the aviation industry, which is expected to remain sluggish until vaccination becomes more common in the second half of the year. Even then, the recovery of international travel may be slower, which means fewer aircraft for long-distance trade. Aviation industry officials said they don’t expect a full recovery until 2024.
Globally, freight rates are more than twice what they were a year ago, and freight rates from China to Europe and the United States are 2.5 times what they were a year ago. According to data from digital sales platforms, market information services and freight forwarders, the aircraft on these routes are full.
According to World ACD data, the average freight rate soared by 80% in December last year, from US$1.80 per kilogram to US$3.27 per kilogram, the highest year-on-year increase since May last year, but it fell by 10% since January this year.
Freight rates are under tremendous pressure, because although more all-cargo operators have added freighters and flights, global capacity is still about 20% lower than 2019 levels. The main culprit is the insufficient supply of wide-body passenger aircraft on international routes, most of which are still grounded due to the poor travel market. In fact, with the strict implementation of travel restrictions, airlines will reduce flights in the first quarter. For example, Air Canada and WestJet suspended 25% and 30% of their system capacity in the first quarter.
According to data from the International Civil Aviation Organization, the global all-cargo fleet increased by 22.4% to 673 aircraft in 2020. Airlines continue to increase capacity, including improved aircraft from passenger airlines, but this is not enough, because the space shortage is three to four times the decline in demand, and the gap may be even greater in the short term.
In the past month, Qatar Airways has added three Boeing 777 freighters to its fleet, and China Airlines and AirBridgeCargo have each added a factory-built aircraft. Swiss International Air Lines has added Seoul, South Korea and Lima, Peru to its cargo network. The flight from Zurich will be operated by a 777-300 extended-range passenger aircraft dedicated to cargo. The flight from Zurich will be operated by a 777-300 extended-range passenger aircraft dedicated to cargo.
In the past year, many freight forwarders have greatly increased the use of dedicated charter flights to ensure that they can provide transport capacity to their customers. German logistics giant DB Schenker significantly expanded its private aviation network last week. Now it has two routes, connecting Europe, Asia and North America for the first time. The cargo management company controls a total of 43 Boeing 747 or 777 freighter flights every week-equivalent to the space of a 135 wide-body airliner. Munich Airport is the hub for DB Schenker's intercontinental cargo between the United States and Asia.
The global container cargo volume has soared, and the existing container ships have almost all been used up, which has led to a sharp increase in container freight rates and container ship rentals.
Faced with the reality of shortage of ships, shortage of containers and high freight, what should we do?
There is no limit to rising container ship rents
As of 2020, the rental level of container ships has reached the highest level in 12 years, and this trend showed no signs of slowing down in the next few weeks.
The rising rent of container ships presents a sense of unlimited.
Clarkson Research introduced in the latest market report that with rising freight rates and continued optimistic forecasts, the demand for large ships in the chartering market, in particular, has not decreased. (Maersk: The congestion in the container supply chain will not improve in the near future)
In the past week, the income of all the container ship sectors has improved.
The charter rate for a 6800 TEU container ship with a charter period of 6-12 months rose further by 1% from the previous week to 34,500 USD per day.
In the ship type below 3000 TEU, the Atlantic and Pacific markets continued to be active, which led to the continued increase in charter rates. The charter rate for the 1000 TEU ship type under the 6-12 month charter period rose 3% year-on-year to 9,500. USD/day.
As shown in the above chart, in general, this year's container ship rental levels of various ship types have increased significantly compared with last year, not to mention the relatively flat or even sluggish market in 2017 and 2018.
Fearnley Securities, the Norwegian investment bank, said in a briefing on Monday that there are few signs that the container shipping market will stop its strong upward trend because demand continues to exceed the supply of capacity.
Fearnley's data also shows that the current container rent of traditional Panamax container ships under the current 12-month charter period has exceeded US$25,000 per day. In addition, the rent of larger container ships of 6000-9000TEU type has also been rising.
Fearnley added that the "activeness" of feeder-type container ships continues to increase, and the one-year rental level of a standard 1,700 teu container ship has also approached $18,000.
The highly influential New ConTex Index (New ConTex Index) provided by the Hamburg Shipbrokers' Association, which reflects the situation in the container ship chartering market, also continued to rise to 737 points from 726 points last week.
In fact, according to the index report of this institution, the rent levels of ships of all lengths of almost all ship types recorded in the report are continuously rising. As shown in the chart above.
There are almost no ships available in the world, causing freight rates and rents to skyrocket!
Clarkson said that in terms of freight rates, the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) reached a record high of 2783 at the end of 2020, an average of 56% higher than last year in the past 12 months.
Fearnley said that although the increase in the SCFI index for the week that ended on January 15 slowed down from previous weeks, the index rose by 0.5%.
The rapid rise in unbalanced demand in phases is the main reason for the sharp rise in container freight rates and container ship rentals.
For example, Xinde Maritime.com reported in "Container freight rates have risen sharply, should container shipping companies take the blame? "Introduced in "After experiencing the sluggish demand in the first half of 2020, the demand for container cargo has experienced an astonishing rebound in the second half of last year.
According to data compiled by BIMCO, the global container traffic dropped by about 7.3% (about 5 million TEU) in the first five months of this year, but then by November this year, the global container traffic dropped by only 1.7% compared with the same period last year ( About 2.6 million TEU). This means that in the second half of this year, container shipping companies have to meet the nearly 30% increase in cargo volume with the capacity to meet normal demand.
Trevor Crowe, an analyst at Clarksons Research, also said that the recovery in freight volumes is the main reason for the dramatic market volatility.
Clarkson said that in 2020, the global volume of container trade in teu is estimated to have fallen by 1.9%, which is better than initially worried about. But this number does not fully reflect the changes in the turbulent 12 months. In the second quarter of last year, the volume of seaborne container trade dropped by 10% compared to 2019. However, in the second half of the year, due to the backlog of transport demand released by the economy, the volume of container transport increased significantly.
At the same time, Clarksons Research stated that the growth of the global container fleet's capacity has remained at 2.9%, which was "under control" as expected last year.
The agency also added that the number of new ship orders in October (relative to the existing ship capacity) once dropped to a new low of 8%, but with the increase in orders, it had fallen to 10% by the end of this year.
The distant water cannot quench the thirst of the nearby, and it takes a certain amount of time to build a new container ship. With soaring demand and limited increase in container ship capacity, the global market's utilization of existing container ships has reached its limit.
According to data provided by the shipping consulting company Alphaliner for Xinde Maritime Network, the current global "inactive" container ships account for only 1%, which is approximately 600,000 TEU in total capacity.
It is worth noting that Alphaliner analyst Jan Tiedemann further explained to Xinde Maritime Network that the meaning of whether it is "idle" or "inactive" in the table does not mean that the ship is "in idle". layout' state.
Jan Tiedemann further explained that there may be several reasons for ship inactivity, including waiting, damage to be repaired, or being in the contract handover period. In addition, some ships in the shipyard’s docking repairs, special inspections, conversion of desulfurization towers or ballast water treatment systems are also classified as inactive ships. For example, out of the current inactive capacity of 600,000 TEUs, 370,000 TEUs are in In the shipyard.
According to the above data, this means that there are almost no ships that can be re-entered into the transportation market in the world.
No ships are available, so the rise in container ship rentals is of course a matter of course. In addition, because there are not enough containers in the world, there is a logical basis for the skyrocketing container freight.
The latest data from the World Health Organization show that as of 2:08 on the 16th, Beijing time, there were 91816091 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide, and a total of 1986,871 deaths. According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 12:13 on the 16th Beijing time, there were 93,816,953 confirmed cases worldwide, with more than 2 million deaths, and a total of 2008,237 cases.
Now entering the second year of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, considering the dynamics of the spread of the virus, the epidemic situation may be more severe than the first year. Michael Ryan also pointed out that the northern hemisphere is particularly serious in Europe and North America, and a series of factors have increased the spread of the virus in many countries. At present, there are death congestion and slow operations in ports around the world, logistics and supply chains have been severely affected, and cargo transportation is bound to usher in unprecedented "large-scale delays."
The situation at the ports of the West Coast of the United States, Nigeria, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, Australia, Nigeria and other countries is even more severe and it is not optimistic.
United States
Affected by the epidemic, the American people's demand for Chinese goods has soared. They are snapping up Chinese-made furniture, electrical appliances and bicycles. The containers carrying Chinese imported goods are stacked six stories high like Lego bricks. Truck drivers crowded in the parking lot and had to wait for hours to pick up the goods.
The Port of Los Angeles, the largest port in the United States, is continuing to bear the pressure of a large number of containers entering the port. At the same time, the port is heavily congested and a large number of ships are waiting to berth. The surge in container imports has also caused congestion in the port, making it more difficult for trucks and trucks to quickly move goods out of the port.
The congestion situation in US ports has not been significantly eased. According to a report from the Southern California Ocean Exchange, there are at least 47 ships waiting to enter the port at the anchorages outside the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Among them, 34 are container ships with a total capacity of more than 270,000 TEU. The largest ship is 16,022 TEU. In addition, as the epidemic continues to spread in the United States, the number of confirmed cases in the United States has been increasing, and a large number of logistics industry practitioners are also unable to continue working due to the diagnosis of new crown pneumonia. Many logistics parks in the United States are facing serious manpower shortages.
The Inland Empire logistics zone, located about 100 kilometers east of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, has become an important extension and logistics hub of the above two ports. However, due to the high proportion of employees in warehouses and distribution centers diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia, the supply chain of the logistics park is extremely fragile.
It is worth noting that with the US President-elect Biden will be formally sworn in on January 20, 2021, the United States may implement a trillion-dollar economic stimulus plan. Biden once said: "In order to prevent economic collapse, we should now invest a lot of money to develop the economy, which is very necessary."
United Kingdom
Felixstowe, the largest port in the UK, usually handles 40% of all container traffic in the UK, and now the average ship stays in the port for more than 32 hours. This series of conditions forces shippers to transfer cargo to other ports. Since the end of last year, Maersk and MSC have replaced the port of Felixstowe with the port of Liverpool on their TA2/NEUATL2 loop route across the Atlantic.
Trucks waiting in line to enter the Port of Dover, Kent, are undergoing document checks
This measure introduced as a result of Brexit resulted in hundreds of British truck drivers being fined for crossing Kent without permission. Since January 1, the UK is no longer bound by EU rules. Since the new rules came into effect, the British police have issued 407 fines. Trucks travelling from all over the UK to France must obtain a Kent Pass before entering Kent, so that they can obtain the Port of Dover or Eurotunnel right of passage.
The additional permit checks caused controversy and traffic jams at the border. Kent County Police Department Assistant Sergeant Claire Nix said: “Although most HGV drivers who travel to Europe via the Port of Dover or Eurotunnel enter the county with a valid Kent County Pass, there are still too many people who have to stop. Accept the fine and return to the place of departure. "If this trend continues, it may cause traffic disruption in Kent, which is expected to increase significantly in the coming weeks.
Australia
Recently, Australia's container supply chain has been in constant chaos, and this problem may not be effectively resolved in a short period of time.
Due to previous strikes, the ship’s schedule was disrupted, resulting in a backlog of cargo for "8 to 10 weeks". However, the union denied that the strike was mainly due to the reason. The union claimed that the surge in transportation demand was the main reason.
In the process of New South Wales port's efforts to solve the road congestion in Botany Port, Sydney container trucks bear the brunt. Although the trucking industry issued a warning, it then called on the authorities and the container chain to take action to improve the chaos.
Ports of New South Wales pointed out that in the past few months, the empty container terminal (ECP) in Sydney has faced high demand from carriers and customers for empty container unloading. This high demand sometimes leads to long lines of trucks outside the exit control station and on the road to the port.
Ports of New South Wales pointed out that truck queues appear on Simblist and Friendship highways almost every day. Sometimes these trucks queue up not only to cause serious congestion, but also to potential safety issues that must be resolved. Although the management of the truck queue is the responsibility of the ECP operator, the Port of New South Wales has decided to take action to solve this problem by introducing additional temporary dedicated truck queue areas in a safe place.
Malaysia
There was serious congestion around the busiest Klang West Hong Kong dollar. As the congestion intensified, many wholesalers and retailers said that the container congestion in the West Port of Port Klang caused delivery delays for more than one month, which increased unnecessary costs.
The chairman of the Port Klang Authority, Datuk Zhang Shengwen, recently disclosed that after the container congestion problem occurred in the port of Klang, the bureau set up a working team headed by the Ministry of Transport. In the past month, the working team has implemented a number of countermeasures. The problem has been significantly improved. The waiting time for cargo ships to dock for loading and unloading has been drastically reduced from an average of 5 days last month to 24 hours. After taking timely response measures, the container congestion in Port Klang has been effectively improved and relieved. All refrigerated containers that have been stopped have been quarantined and cleared within one day.
Zhang Shengwen revealed that some shipping companies have also specially arranged additional cargo ships for this purpose, and the Port Authority has arranged for these cargo ships to dock first to speed up the time for loading and unloading cargo. In addition, transport agents and importers are also committed to taking away imported containers in advance to avoid storing them in the port area.
"Although the congestion problem in Port Klang is mainly caused by external factors, the Port Authority and the logistics industry will still take all responsibilities and strive to reduce the inconvenience of port users, especially during the coming February Lunar New Year." He said, appropriate During the Lunar New Year period, the volume of cargo will also be at a "peak" period. All parties will continue to maintain close cooperation to face problems together and respond appropriately to ensure timely and effective services for freight forwarders and shipping companies.
India
Due to the gradual weakening of the hurricane, the port of Katupali has resumed normal export shipments. The port is deploying all necessary resources to reduce berthing delays and quickly transshipment.
Nigeria
In Nigeria’s busiest ports, TinCan Port and Apapa Port in Lagos, due to port cargo congestion, no less than 43 ships loaded with various cargoes are currently trapped in the waters of Lagos. Due to the limited space in the port, many ships cannot enter and unload, and can only stay at sea.
The congestion in the port of Lagos is so serious that the cost of these trucks to transport a container 20 kilometers inland in Nigeria may exceed $4,000, which is almost equivalent to the cost of transporting 12,000 nautical miles from China. (Congestion caused importers to abandon the goods! 4000 overdue container cargoes will be auctioned!)
The ports of Apapa and Tinkan, which are the main entrances to Africa's largest economies, the economic recession triggered by the epidemic and the recent turmoil in the commercial capital of Nigeria have exacerbated the port’s long-term crisis. Dozens of container ships are stranded at sea due to congestion, and hundreds of trucks stay on the road for days or weeks, waiting to enter and exit the port.
At present, the port is extremely congested and the increase in ocean freight prices has stimulated the nerves of aviation traders. The goods exported by some manufacturers to the United States, due to unloaded unloading and delayed customs clearance, could not be delivered to the buyer’s warehouse on time, so they could only throw away the goods and abandon the goods, resulting in heavy losses. In the near future, pay attention to the development of major ports in time, so as to avoid problems and stop losses in time.
2020 is a year in which China’s port industry is facing severe tests. It will face both the impact of the raging global COVID-19 pandemic and the severe challenges of changes in the global economic landscape. China Merchants Ports will face difficulties, turn crises into opportunities, and implement precise policies with results. Significantly, container throughput gradually recovered after bottoming out in March. It turned negative for the first time in June and reached new highs in the second half of the year. It bucked the trend and hit a new high of 122 million TEUs, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year. Among them, the terminals in Mainland China completed 85.76 million TEUs, the ports in Hong Kong and Taiwan completed 7.14 million TEUs, and the overseas terminals completed 28.78 million TEUs; the annual bulk cargo throughput was 450 million tons.
In 2020, China Merchants Port aims to "promote the spirit of Shekou, implement national strategies, and become world-class". It will fight the epidemic with one hand and production with the other. Its multiple terminals will overcome difficulties, seize opportunities, and expand the supply of goods through multiple channels. New markets, new achievements in history.
Shenzhen's western home port: seize opportunities and outperform the market
Thanks to the alleviation of the domestic epidemic, the business volume of China Merchants Port's Shenzhen Western Port Area has recovered significantly in the second half of 2020. The historical record of container throughput has been set again throughout the year. The container throughput was 11.84 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Shenzhen's total growth rate of 3.0% in Hong Kong; of which 11.11 million TEUs were completed in foreign trade, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. To achieve such results, seizing development opportunities is the key. The western port area of Shenzhen has used multiple channels to solicit cargo sources and expand markets, maintaining a stable bulk cargo supply situation. Container liners from all over the world berthed as scheduled and were loaded and unloaded smoothly. A series of combined measures, such as advance declaration and reloading of whole ships, have promoted a large increase in exports in the western port area of Shenzhen; in terms of imports, the development of sources of goods has increased. On the whole, business in some areas has been affected by the new crown epidemic. But the container throughput still keeps growing.
Zhanjiang Port Group: Increasing against the trend, the volume of a variety of goods hit a record high
Zhanjiang Port Group has achieved rapid growth in domestic trade container volume and sea-rail combined cargo volume through the China Merchants Port’s north-south collaborative network. At the same time, it is committed to expanding regional transit and increasing the development of return cargo sources. The container throughput has completed 1.22 million TEUs, an increase of 10.0% year-on-year ; The throughput of bulk and general cargo was 90.87 million tons throughout the year, and the completed volume of major cargoes such as iron ore and grain hit a record high. In the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the turmoil of the international trade situation, it maintained growth against the trend, and its production reached a peak again, which provided an excellent answer to consolidate the status of China Merchants Port's bulk cargo home port and build a strong regional port.
Shantou China Merchants Port: The growth rate of container throughput ranked first in the country, and the profit doubled
In 2020, the container throughput exceeded 1 million TEUs for the first time, a significant increase of 39.6% against the trend, and the growth rate ranked among the top coastal ports in the country. Its annual profit is expected to double year-on-year, exceeding its annual production and operation target. The throughput of Shantou China Merchants Port has achieved a new leap in history and joined the ranks of million TEU port enterprises, mainly due to the basic stability of the domestic container source market for domestic trade. After the second phase of the Guangao Port Area is put into production, the advantages are obvious. The company's overall cooperation trend is good, and the volume of transit containers has increased. The port's containers have entered a new stage of large-scale development, and the port's service capabilities, regional influence, and competitiveness have reached a new level.
Overseas: Double-digit growth in container throughput and integrated operation of overseas home ports
In 2020, China Merchants Port will join the 8 newly acquired terminals through Terminal Link, which will increase the container throughput of overseas terminals by 38.1% year-on-year. It is worth mentioning that the overseas home port Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT) and Hambantota Port Project (HIPG) built by China Merchants Port in Sri Lanka have achieved integrated operation, achieving coordination in many aspects such as operation, equipment, finance, and epidemic prevention. , Ensuring the efficiency and quality of operation and operation, and both Hong Kong and Hong Kong have achieved growth against the trend. Among them, the annual container throughput of CICT increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the throughput of HIPG bulk cargo increased nearly 1.5 times. Brazil’s new crown epidemic is facing a serious test. TCP actively fights against the epidemic and seizes the rare opportunity of sustained growth in local agricultural exports. Container throughput increased by 7.4% year-on-year.
In the face of multiple severe tests in 2020, China Merchants Port dared to face the difficulties, and resumed production in the fight against the epidemic, working hard and achieving new historical growth in its business. In 2021, the people of China Merchants Port will strengthen their strategic determination, continue to inherit the "China Merchants bloodline, Shekou gene, and Hailiao spirit", not forgetting their original aspirations, drawing blueprints, bravely shouldering their missions, steadily moving forward, and contributing to becoming a world-class company Make unremitting efforts.
The congestion in the port of Lagos is so serious that the cost of these trucks to transport a container 20 kilometers inland in Nigeria may exceed US$4,000; the economic recession triggered by the epidemic and the recent turbulence in the commercial capital of Nigeria have exacerbated the port’s long-term Since the crisis. Dozens of container ships are stranded at sea due to congestion, and hundreds of trucks stay on the road for days or weeks, waiting to enter and exit the port.
A few days ago, the Nigeria General Administration of Customs (NCS) headquarters in Apapa Port, Lagos, seized a total of 318 containers, of which 133 containers were unregistered drugs.
Mohammed Abba-Kura, the regional head of the command headquarters, introduced the details of the seized items. He said: “The seized items contained 133 containers of unregistered drugs, including the drug tramadol; 58 3 containers of semi-boiled rice; 30 containers of vegetable oil; 31 containers of second-hand clothing and shoes; 13 containers of used tires and other sundries.
"According to this, the headquarters seized a total of 318 containers with a tax value of more than 21 billion naira. This figure tripled from the total seizure of 112 containers in 2019, and the total value of smuggled goods seized in 2019 was the total tax value. 12.5 billion naira," he said.
Aba Kula added that, in accordance with the Nigerian government’s current circulars, trade guidelines and fiscal policy measures, the Apapa Command has strengthened its efforts to combat smuggling operations by economic disruptors through reliable sources of intelligence and continued cooperation with other agencies.
Abba Kula further stated that compared with the figure of 423.6 billion naira in the same period in 2019, between January 2020 and December 2020, smuggled goods worth 518.46 billion naira have been seized to supplement federal fiscal revenue, which is a significant increase 94.937 billion naira, an increase of 22.3%.
Abba Kula attributed this achievement to the customs staff who strictly implemented the government's fiscal policy. "Export-related figures have also increased, from 260,000 tons in 2019 to 1.31 million tons in 2020, and the FOB price of export items has also risen from US$132 million to US$340 million. The main export products include steel bars, agricultural products and minerals. ."
It is also worth noting that due to severe port congestion, a large number of stranded container cargoes have a worrying ripple effect on Lagos port operations. There are more than 4,000 container cargoes overdue in the Apapa Port Complex (LPC) and Tinkan Port in Lagos; stakeholders in the industry call on the General Administration of Customs (NCS) to auction approximately 4,000 containers, thereby Relieve congestion in the port of Lagos in the new year.
After the freight rate in the trans-Pacific market has remained stable for a period of time, it has recently started a rising mode.
According to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (Freightos Baltic Daily Index), on December 28, 2020, the freight rate of the Asia-US West Coast route reached US$4,189/FEU, a record high, an increase of 8% from December 25, which is the year of 2019. 3 times over the same period.
At the same time, the freight rate of the Asia-US East Coast route also reached an astonishing US$5397/FEU, a 9% increase from December 25 and twice the rate of the same period in 2019.
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 25, 2020, the freight rates (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port markets of the West and the East of the United States were 4,080 USD/FEU and 4,876 USD/FEU, respectively. The US West route rose 4.6% from the previous week.
Analysts of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to the West and East U.S. routes maintained at a level close to full load. However, the U.S. epidemic has blocked the turnover of containers, and a large number of containers are stranded at the local terminal. The congestion of the port is increasing, and the shortage of containers has not been alleviated.
In addition, a number of shipping companies including CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen Shipping, HMM, ONE, Yangming Shipping, and Star Shipping have announced that they will start on the trans-Pacific route from January 1, 2021. , Charge a comprehensive rate increase surcharge (GRI) ranging from US$1,000 to US$1,200/FEU.
The market predicts that the upward trend of freight rates will continue until January 2021.
In contrast to the fast-growing transportation demand, after a fully loaded ship arrived at the US West Port, it faced the dilemma of nowhere to stop.
According to a report released by the Marine Exchange of Southern California on December 28, 2020, a total of 24 container ships are anchored in San Pedro Bay, and another 5 ships are about to arrive.
According to the report, the local conventional anchorages are full of ships, and some emergency anchorages have also been occupied.
Marine Traffic uses an automatic identification system to draw a map that shows the extent of the accumulation of container ships in San Pedro Bay, which has deteriorated in recent weeks.
According to statistics, 26 additional ships called at the Port of Los Angeles in November and 31 ships in December. A port manager said that it is expected that in January 2021, more additional ships will call.
The loading and unloading capacity of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has already faced serious shortages. The Port of Los Angeles will import 116,500 TEU containers this week, and it is expected to increase significantly to 150,000 TEU per week by January 2021.
The continuous increase in freight rates and the severe congestion at the US West Port have caused shippers’ costs to hit unprecedented highs, and shippers have to reassess their transportation cost budgets for 2021.
The shipping industry in 2020 can be said to be half winter and half summer.
Affected by the epidemic, China's exports declined in the first half of the year, and the shipping industry was cold and "overwintering" ahead of schedule. In the second half of the year, the neglected shipping industry directly entered the "midsummer." As the epidemic situation in China stabilizes and the economy recovers steadily, goods from all countries are transferred from Chinese ports. For a time, China's shipping industry is showing a busy scene.
“It’s too difficult to order containers now!” A reporter from the Securities Daily could see vehicles transporting containers coming and going at the Shanghai port. A foreign trade official who did not want to be named told the reporter: “At present, I want to order a container. The price can be said to be one price per day. Not only that, even if the container is booked, I still have to worry about the availability of the cabin."
"Shanghai SIPG, Ningbo, and Shenzhen are all major ports in the world. In 2018 and 2019, the container throughput of Shanghai Port was ranked first. Recently, the container shipping market is very hot, and many boxes cannot be returned after they go out." People from listed companies commented on the reporter of "Securities Daily".
In this regard, Liu Wang, chairman of Shanghai Tianhui International Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters: “The price of container transportation has been rising. Because shipping companies have fewer ships, they often suspend voyages, and the lack of boxes is common, even if the price increases. It cannot fundamentally solve the problem of missing boxes."
• One price a day, "boxes" are crazy
"The most exaggerated time in the past 10 years." Speaking of the current shipping industry, Ms. Xie, who is engaged in the foreign trade industry, told a reporter from the Securities Daily. Ms. Xie is mainly responsible for the freight of Guangzhou Nansha Port and Shenzhen Port. She told reporters that taking a 40-foot container as an example, the highest sea freight to the Middle East at this time last year was about US$3,000. It costs almost US$5,000 now. Last year, it was US$2,800 to US$3,200 to Europe, and now it is US$6,000 to US$7,000. This year, the freight is almost twice the same period last year.
By the end of the year, the lack of positions became a true portrayal of the operation industry.
“Nowadays, there is a shortage of containers and high freight rates. The supply exceeds demand. During the epidemic, there was a large backlog of foreign containers that could not be arranged for delivery, and no one carried the goods. Almost all customers were looting containers. Under current market conditions, there are few freight forwarders. When looking for new customers, they are basically priority old customers.” Ms. Xie told reporters that the new year is approaching, and major suppliers are fully shipping. It is expected that the shortage of containers will continue.
"First of all you have to have a position, then you have to line up the truck to get the container, and finally you have to wait for the port to open before you can enter the port. Every day, you have to go through five hurdles, and you have to face customer soul torture. It's late, can't you figure it out?" A shipping forwarder complained about the tightness of the current export containers.
Liu Wang revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many forwarders who have no boxes sometimes look for scalpers. Now forwarders are looting positions. The positions have to be booked in advance. Many people robbed and reselled them. In the past, they did not lose their shipping fees. Now that the shipping companies are recovering their losses, the shipping companies are about to usher in a wave of market conditions this year. After the merger and reorganization last year, it is estimated that all the money lost in the past will be made back this year."
Liu Wang said: “In the past Christmas and the Spring Festival, there will be a wave of liquidation market, this year is particularly fierce because of the epidemic. South American container boxes were the lowest in history at 50 US dollars a small container, and now basically it costs more than 5,000 US dollars, and a large box 10,000. U.S. dollars, if $5,000 this week is too expensive for you, you may not be able to order $6,000 next week, basically one price a week."
In fact, the current container price has been upgraded to a daily basis. A person in charge of an international logistics company said: “In Qingdao Port, the price of a second-hand 40-foot container in previous years was about US$2,000. On November 27 this year, the price rose to US$2,850; by November 30, the price of a second-hand container rose to US$3,200. ; On December 3, it rose to 3,400 US dollars again, almost one day."
According to data from the freight benchmark company Xeneta, the current average price of short-term market contracts in Asia and Europe for three months or less is 200% higher than a year ago, at $4,831 per 40 feet. But from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by an astonishing 390.5%.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings told reporters: “As the volume of goods continues to rise, the demand for export containers has greatly increased, and the domestic guarantee for container use has become tighter. However, the turnover of overseas empty containers has generally slowed due to the continuous impact of the epidemic situation in various places. Transfer back to China to meet demand."
"The whole industry is looking for boxes everywhere, and some merchants are beginning to hoard boxes to speculate on prices." In the eyes of industry insiders, the current situation of foreign trade companies being difficult to find a box is not only because of the slow operation of containers, but also because of the reduction of some routes. .
"There are few ship lines, and most of the cabinets shipped abroad can't return. This is the root cause of the skyrocketing price of the domestic container transportation market." Liu Wang explained to the reporter: "It's not that foreign cabinets are not coming back. It is the epidemic situation abroad. The impact is that the workers do not go to work and the speed of transportation is relatively slow. Now everyone is sharing the warehouse."
According to Liu Wang, the container ships now and the alliance has been formed since last year. Originally, it used its own ships to transport the goods. Now four or five shipowners or five or six companies form an alliance, and use the same ship. warehouse. "It turns out that there may be several shipping companies arranging several shifts to go to sea in a week. Once we formed an alliance, the shifts decreased in a week. This started last year. Now shipping companies often stop once a week, which objectively leads to a shortage of ships. ."
A person in charge of the Shanghai Maritime Logistics Company introduced to a reporter from the Securities Daily: "At present, the proportion of import and export trade by sea is imbalanced. There are few boxes coming in and many boxes going out . In addition, China has quickly prevented and controlled the epidemic, and overseas orders have continued to surge. , Increasing the pressure on shipping. Overseas, affected by the epidemic, the operation cycle of containers shipped out due to business environment problems has been lengthened, the arrival process has increased, and the operation efficiency has slowed and lengthened the circulation cycle. Due to the early outbreak of the epidemic, major shipping The company has reduced many routes, resulting in uneven distribution of global container volumes."
The industry believes that with the increase in market demand, the current effective capacity is obviously insufficient.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO Shipping Holdings revealed to the reporter: "As the global epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, global trade has been rapidly repaired since the third quarter of this year, and the demand in the container shipping market has recovered beyond expectations. In order to meet the growth of transportation demand, market capacity has gradually returned to normal. , The idle capacity has dropped rapidly from the record high of more than 2.7 million TEU (international standard unit units) in May this year. At present , there is no airworthy effective capacity to rent in the market. "
In the context of uneven global container deployment, container prices on different routes have also risen at different rates.
"Since November, the price of the U.S. line has increased by about four times compared with the beginning of the year, and the European line has risen to the highest price last year. From the perspective of the distribution of China’s export routes, the U.S. container accounts for 25%, Europe accounts for 25%, and Southeast Asia , Northeast Asia adds up to 50%, the US route is now hard to find a box is the norm, followed by the European route, freight is also very tight. The price of Malaysia route in Southeast Asia has also doubled recently." The person in charge of the aforementioned logistics company added.
Facing the increase in demand for containers, the above-mentioned relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings stated: “The company will strengthen scientific forecasts for container use, actively coordinate dual-brand superior resources, and make every effort to guarantee the use of containers during peak seasons. On the one hand, internally tap the potential and accelerate overseas heavy container Demolition speed, increase empty container callback domestic and Far East efforts to promote container turnover; on the other hand, close communication with container manufacturers and container leasing companies to seek more container sources. Through two-pronged and multiple measures, to guarantee domestic container use Provide effective assistance and try our best to meet the shipping needs of customers."
In order to meet the development needs of the container market, SIPG has launched a number of effective measures to promote container volume growth in response to the market. At the beginning of this year, the Group launched seven special measures for container growth, through the implementation of preferential international transit loading and unloading fees, extension of the international transit container storage exemption period, and sea-rail intermodal customs clearance container preferential projects. In the first half of the year, the Group established three major container areas: Yangshan, Outer Harbor, and Domestic Trade, striving to achieve overall planning and agglomeration effects.
According to SIPG’s official announcement, in October, each terminal of Shanghai Port set a new record. The monthly throughput of Shengdong Company exceeded 820,000 TEUs for the first time. Among them, 33068 TEUs and 12899.75 TEUs were updated on October 25. Class record; Guandong Company broke through 720,000 TEU, setting a new record again.
• How long can the "shortage of containers" last? What is the future prospect of the shipping industry?
"The first half of the year was affected by the new crown epidemic. Ports and shipping fields did suffer a relatively large negative impact, so the first half of the year was basically a negative growth state. In the second half of the year, especially after the third quarter, normal operations resumed to a certain extent, plus China The epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, and most of the economic activities have been resumed first. Therefore, compared with the first half of the year, there is indeed a big sign of a bottoming out." said Liu Dian, a research assistant at the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China.
In the first two months of this year, my country's foreign trade imports and exports dropped significantly. According to China Customs data, from January to February 2020, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.
Although the current domestic epidemic situation is under control, the global epidemic is breaking out, and exports are still under certain impact.
It can be said that in the first half of this year, people in the shipping industry were mainly pessimistic about my country's export prospects. In the second half of the year, the industry was generally optimistic about the future development of the shipping industry.
Insiders analyzed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that this round of container freight price increases began in the middle of this year. At that time, after the domestic epidemic was brought under control, foreign countries were greatly affected by the epidemic, and many overseas orders were transferred to the domestic market. When shipping from China, the shipping price began to rise. According to Liu Wang's prediction, this round of price increases will continue until the first quarter of next year.
An unnamed person in charge of maritime logistics said: "As the epidemic stabilizes, this hot market will continue into the first half of next year, or even longer."
"This wave of increase in container shipping prices has driven the adjustment of the entire foreign trade sector, breaking the laws of the past decades in the industry. Not only ocean freight, air freight and land transportation have different levels of influence and changes. The epidemic has accelerated the entire large trade sector. The consolidation and adjustment of the shipping sector will gradually move towards intensive development. Shipping companies have become monopolistic after years of integration and mergers. The aviation sector and the land transport sector are also rapidly integrated, and a new chapter will emerge in the future foreign trade field." People say so.
According to Huang Tianhua, chairman of the China Container Industry Association and vice president of CIMC, predicted that the shortage of containers may continue for about six months . He said: "We have monitored that if there are 500,000 new containers in China normally, they are in a completely healthy state if they are ready for use in the docks or ports, but the current tighter inventory is about 300,000 new containers. I expect it to be possible. In the next three months to six months, this slightly tense balance will continue. This is probably a trend in the current industry."
Although the industry is generally optimistic about the shipping industry, Liu Dian believes that the total global trade volume in 2020 will still drop a certain percentage from the previous year, but from the perspective of the shipping industry, it will definitely be from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. There will be a better market.
Liu Dian said: “Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the uncertainties slowed down in the second half of the year, and the overall trend showed a relatively large rebound. Therefore, from a macro perspective, global international trade has rebounded to a certain extent. China is the first to resume the rebound led by the next."
" At present, the shipping industry is mainly affected by three factors :
Di Yi factor is that the global economy is expected to have a recovery, so after the third quarter, international trade has been warmer, led the field of shipping industry as a whole for the better, whether it is from container or just have some trade from the sea to pick up case .
The second factor is that with the signing of the RCEP agreement, a series of regional economic integration cooperation relations in East Asia and Southeast Asia will improve, which will benefit the import and export trade of China and related countries.
The third factor is that although the epidemic has not been eliminated on a global scale, all countries are in short supply, such as medical supplies, production supplies, and living supplies. China is now the world's largest trade surplus country. Under such circumstances, China's export trade, including part of its import trade, will also get a relatively large rebound in demand, and at the same time promote the rise of a series of shipping-related industry indexes in related fields, including the container shipping index. "Liu Dian said.
my country is the largest producer, exporter and consumer of toys. At the beginning of this year, affected by the epidemic, Guangdong toy companies lost a large number of foreign orders. The pressure on the industry was huge. Since the second half of the year, the entire industry has continued to pick up, and some companies even have "exports". The situation of “explosive orders”.
But the good and the bad are mixed. Due to the shortage of containers, a large backlog of goods has caused difficulties in delivery. Thousands of containers filled with toys ordered by overseas toy retailers before Christmas are still stuck in ports!
Hot toy export manufacturers' orders will be scheduled until March next year
In a building block factory, the person in charge told reporters that under the epidemic this year, their sales have not fallen but increased. The 5000 square meter factory has been transformed into fully automated production. In the past, more than 200 workers were required to work at the same time, but now they have replaced it. 32 robots work overtime 24 hours a day .
In this toy company in Chenghai District, Shantou City, Guangdong, the reporter saw a busy scene on the production line. The person in charge said that the epidemic did have some impact on them at the beginning of the year, but since April and May, the order volume began to rise. At present, they are running at full power and producing 24 hours a day, but they still cannot meet the needs of overseas customers, and some products are "out of stock".
The person in charge of another toy company that mainly sells overseas said that they did not anticipate the rapid recovery of orders. Due to the shortage of manpower, this year's orders could not be delivered in time for the year before, and new orders for next year are still being found. .
According to data provided by the China Toys and Baby Products Association, due to the impact of the epidemic, the monthly export growth rate of Chinese traditional toys was negative from January to June this year. Starting from July, the monthly export growth rate has turned negative to positive, reaching 21.1%, exports from January to October reached 26.36 billion US dollars, and the cumulative growth rate turned negative to positive, reaching 1.4%. In November, it maintained sustained growth, with exports of 3.89 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 50.8% year-on-year, the largest single-month increase since this year.
Busy production and delivery toy manufacturers are mixed
Toy exports continued to rise, and toy factories received soft orders. At the same time, manufacturers had new troubles.
The reporter saw in a toy factory in Dongguan, Guangdong that there were many products to be shipped stacked in the factory, and only one truck was being loaded. The person in charge said that their customers are mainly large supermarkets and brand toy factories in Europe and the United States. They had to load 30 or 40 cars a day during the peak period. However, the current shortage of containers and the continuous increase in order volume, they are busy with production and worry about delivery. .
Guangdong has a large number of toy companies, with production capacity accounting for more than 70% of the country. The reporter found during a visit to many toy factories in Guangdong that the current export-oriented companies have encountered a shortage of containers. "Lack of containers" is the most common discussion among toy owners. topic. Yuan Moumou is the warehouse supervisor of a toy factory. When the reporter followed him to the warehouse, he found that a large amount of inventory was waiting to be shipped, and even the products produced in April had not been shipped.
The reporter learned during the interview that the current foreign trade toy factories are experiencing varying degrees of product backlog, and the uncertainty of overseas epidemics has slowed the circulation cycle of containers. The Jumbo Group, the largest toy retailer in Greece, said recently that due to the new crown epidemic, thousands of containers full of toys ordered by them in the months before Christmas are still stranded in the port.
Significant increase in export orders from auto parts factories! Orders skyrocketed by 100%, and orders are scheduled until April next year!
Beginning in September this year, the export value of auto parts has reached a new high for three consecutive months. In November, the export of auto parts increased by 41.9% year-on-year. According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in November this year, the export value of auto parts was 5.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.8% month-on-month and 41.9% year-on-year.
The export orders of auto parts factories have increased greatly, and the full production capacity is too late to ship! A person in charge of a wheel production plant in Jinhua, Zhejiang said that all production lines of the plant are operating at full capacity. Due to the substantial increase in export orders this year, one plant is still too busy to produce. Starting from the second half of the year, export orders have grown relatively fast. In the third quarter, compared with the same period last year, it increased by about 50%. In the fourth quarter, we increased by about 100%.
In another factory in Taizhou, Zhejiang that produces automobile shock absorbers, workers are working overtime and production is busy. The person in charge of the company told reporters that the orders received so far have been scheduled to April next year. In the early stage of the epidemic, in March, April and May, our orders were reduced by a certain percentage compared to 2019. Since July, the proportion of orders received has increased by nearly 126%. After August and September, it has increased by about 50% every month.
During the interview, container trucks continued to come to the factory to pick up goods. There were many products waiting to be shipped on both sides of the roads of the factory. The warehouse was also full. Due to the large number of orders this year and the shortage of export containers, many products have not had time to ship.
Yang Fudong, Special Assistant to the Secretary-General of the After-sales Parts Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that more than 70% of China's auto parts exports are used in the independent after-sales market of automobiles. The automotive after-sales market has grown very fast in recent years. The increase in car ownership and the increase in car service life will drive the demand for auto parts. The longer the service life of the car, the faster the replacement frequency of auto parts.