The port is not the boss, the ship is not the boss, and the cargo is the boss. This is a "golden sentence" circulating in the port and shipping industry. However, the freight forwarder who has been busy in the front line of cargo booking may tell you that at this moment of chaos in this industry, the port is not the boss, the ship is not the boss, and the cargo is not the boss. You can't get the empty space if you grab the head. The box is the boss .
In recent weeks, due to a severe shortage of empty containers, some container ships sailing from Asia to Europe cannot even be fully utilized. A shipping source said, “Recently, we have to vacate some spaces because China does not have enough containers to meet freight demand.” Almost all transport companies have reported that they have a serious shortage of 40-foot high containers (hc) and 40 There is also a shortage of standard containers, and even 20-foot containers are sometimes in short supply.
The latest container availability index report from Container xChange shows that the availability of containers in various ports in China is at a record low. From the perspective of the container availability index, the index higher than 0.5 indicates a surplus of empty container inventory, and lower than 0.5 indicates a shortage of empty containers. The current availability of 40-foot containers in China is only 0.05 CAx points, compared with 0.63 points in the same period last year .
Chinese shippers and freight forwarders all over the world "seeking" empty containers, but where did the empty containers go? The answer is simple, it is blocked in other ports.
While the Asian port and shipping industry is desperately desperate for empty containers, warehouses across Europe, especially in the UK, are filled with "immobile" boxes in troubled ports and overcrowded docks.
Affected by the epidemic, shipping companies have used methods such as suspension of voyages and port jumps to control capacity and adjust freight rates, but to a certain extent they also broke the balance of empty and heavy containers between routes. With the gradual recovery of the economy, the trade demand of various countries has rebounded, and the exports of Europe and the United States have grown strongly. However, under the continuous epidemic situation, the various quarantine and epidemic prevention measures added by the port customs will inevitably slow down the circulation of containers. Coupled with the gathering of festivals such as "Black Friday" and "Christmas", the port operation capacity will not be able to keep up with the number of boxes. , The result is that a large number of containers are blocked in the port, empty containers can not go out, heavy containers can not enter. In some British ports, the volume of container transportation in recent months has even been 30% higher than normal, resulting in too many empty containers throughout the UK, and even the alarming phenomenon of containers being piled "at your doorstep".
A British freight forwarder said, "Even if customers are prepared to pay close to crazy freight rates to ensure that the goods are shipped, we are still busy trying to transport the empty containers because the port is already full. Some empty containers on the dock are already After being placed for more than four weeks, we still don’t know when they will be loaded."
In order to ensure the smooth operation of global logistics, liner companies have adopted some unconventional container deployment strategies, such as shortening the free container usage period to stimulate and speed up the circulation of containers on key routes; key routes and long-distance base ports give priority to container use and priority Vacant containers are deployed to countries and regions such as China, Southeast Asia, etc.; the monitoring of container return is slow. For example, some areas in Africa cannot receive goods normally, resulting in whether the container is returned or not. The liner company will comprehensively evaluate and reasonably release the container; some shipping companies even suspend it Made export reservations to Europe and the United States in order to fill as many empty containers as possible back to Asia. However, due to the empty container regulation of shipping companies, the freight rates on the Asia-Europe routes have also been increasing, and the market seems to be in a vicious circle of chaos.
At the same time, a survey conducted by xChange and FraunhoferCML, a German maritime research consultant, showed that despite the large-scale progress in global port handling technology, the time that containers remain empty in ports is still surprisingly long. This report unexpectedly shows that the global container vacancy phenomenon is very serious. The vacant time of each container in the port is 45 days on average, while the vacant time of containers in empty container shortage areas such as China and the United States is longer, 61 days and 61 days respectively. 66 days.
Obviously, the circulation of empty containers is a problem that the entire industry needs to face squarely, but it has been ignored by the industry for a long time. In the sudden crisis of the epidemic, the "old problems" have further deteriorated and gradually developed into today's thorny problems.
It is understood that CIMC, which accounts for 45% of the global container manufacturing market, said that the company is currently stepping up container building and container orders have been scheduled to the first quarter of next year. However, waiting for the new containers to leave the factory, after all, "far water can't save the immediate emergency", and the situation of "a box is hard to find" is expected to continue for some time. In addition to working overtime and deploying empty containers, what else can shipping companies and ports do? The structural empty container circulation problem may be difficult to obtain an optimal solution in a short period of time, but "it is not too late to make up for it". It is time to put more resources and efforts on solving the empty container problem.
As shipping companies continue to detain containers in Nordic ports and charge exporters more than US$5,000 per container to ship a container to Asia, there is increasing pressure for regulatory intervention.
British importers are currently facing major challenges. The shipping division of the Ocean Alliance has decided to transfer the other five ships that arrived in Felixstowe in December to Zeebrugge, Belgium.
According to a consultation conducted by the shipping company to its British customers last Friday , the five ships Cosco Shipping Azalea, Ever Goods, Ever Globe, CSCL Jupiter and CSCL Uranus will no longer call Felixstowe, and will unload the British ships at Belgian ports. Imported products.
In addition, the partners of 2M and THE Alliance are also transferring ships from the congested British port, where the former is loading and unloading British cargo in Bremerhaven.
It is understood that due to the lack of open feeder ships and terminal capacity issues, it is almost impossible for British goods to be transferred before January next year. Some shipping companies are discussing not calling Felixstowe throughout January because they worry that the port will be saturated in a few weeks after Christmas.
However, as the terminals in Antwerp and Rotterdam have also become very congested, the choice of liner companies is becoming increasingly limited. However, a source from a shipping company said: "Our first priority is to reduce imports before shipping our container equipment back to Asia."
British export orders have been suspended by a number of shipping companies, and more and more orders can only be booked at other Nordic ports paying additional fees.
MSC said on Friday that it will significantly increase the FAK fee for a 40-foot container from Antwerp to Shanghai in December by 300% to US$5,000. MSC explained that it is facing very serious operational problems that have seriously affected the reliability and regular supply of inventory.
A source at a rival shipping company said the strategy is to block bookings so that MSC can return its empty containers to Asia more quickly.
He added: "If they can indeed get some reservations at this price, it will be a win-win."
At the same time, the European Shippers Council (ESC) and the European freight forwarders association CLECAT have joined forces to lobby the European Commission to intervene in this crisis.
Denis Choumert, president of ESC, said: "Shipping companies have been taking advantage of the tight capacity to increase revenue far beyond cost, which makes customers unhappy."
"The continuous unreliability of service, coupled with the record profits of the shipping company during the crisis, clearly illustrates a severely disturbed market, and shows that the carrier has substantially increased the spot freight and levied higher than the fixed-term contract price The huge surcharge."
A joint communiqué stated that ocean shipping companies serving Europe benefited from “privileges” that were provided to them by the Union’s Prevention of Immunity Regulations (CBER), which was updated in April.
"Such privileges are now too much because they allow shipping companies to use tools to manipulate the market," adding that the European Commission has not responded to the crisis so far, which is "confusing".
Recently, container freight has soared! The number of empty ships in the market has drastically reduced. In order to preserve space, container shipping companies have started to "grab ships" in the leasing market.
Under such circumstances, Mediterranean Shipping MSC, the world's second-largest container shipping company, even started the direct ship purchase model and purchased two container ships again. It is worth mentioning that this is the 11th ship purchased by the company in a short period of time.
Alphaliner said that the large container ships currently available are insufficient, and most shipping companies have set new records for daily rent. It is particularly noteworthy that even the classic Panamax vessel of 4,000-5,300 TEU, which has suffered "years of suffering", has now risen to an incredible level, which was unimaginable a few months ago.
Driven by strong market demand, container shipping companies have begun to find ways to mobilize all available container ships.
Industry insiders pointed out that the global container shipping market is reappearing in the situation of "a ship is hard to find and a box is hard to find". The mainstream shipping companies have booked space until late December, and it is predicted that high freight rates will continue until around the Spring Festival. High freight rates and high volumes will drive the explosive growth of shipping companies in the fourth quarter.
The "biggest" title changes hands?
Recently, MSC has successively sold and purchased multiple container ships. It is imaginative: Is the title of the world's largest container shipping company changing?
In addition to the two new container ships purchased by MSC as mentioned above, MSC also recently purchased another larger 5,642 TEU Panamax container ship Granville Bridge (built in 2006) from Japanese owner Doun Kisen. ), and neither party has announced the selling price.
It is worth mentioning that the sister ship of Granville Bridge, Greenville Bridge, was also sold by Doun Kisen to MSC earlier this month, with a disclosed price of US$14 million.
At the same time as Greenville Bridge, MSC also purchased another 2510TEU feeder container vessel named Bomar Hermes.
At the end of last month, MSC also spent US$158 million to purchase six large container ships of 7,500-8500TEU from the German shipowner company.
Among them, MSC paid US$114 million for 4 ships of 8,200TEU-8,500TEU. These 4 ships were 8,200TEU ER Tianping and R Tianshan and 8,500TEU ER Tokyo and ER Texas. The above 4 ships Both were built in 2006.
And the 7,849TEU ER Vancouver built in 2003 and the ER Yokohama built in 2004, packaged for $44 million.
Two days before this, MSC also purchased another Panamax container ship called Baltic East from South Korea's Changjin Merchant Marine for US$10 million.
In other words, MSC "buy" 11 ships in more than 20 days.
In addition, industry insiders said that MSC is also very likely to sign a series of large orders for 23,000 teu container ships recently.
In contrast, Maersk, the world's largest shipping company, is very calm. Recently, Maersk released its financial report for the third quarter of this year. The company’s CEO Shi Suoren added when introducing the company’s third-quarter performance report that Maersk currently has no plans to build 20,000+ TEU ships. The company only stated that some of the 10,000 TEU to 15,000 TEU ships are aging and need to be replaced, because being the original owner is more cost-effective than chartering. The company will maintain the current fleet capacity of about 4 million TEUs.
Shi Suoren said, "We are very aware of the technical risks of currently ordering ships," he added.
Analysts from Copenhagen-based sea intelligence pointed out in a report released recently that MSC may soon replace Maersk and become the world's largest shipping company.
According to the latest data from Alphaliner, the current container ship capacity of Mediterranean Shipping is 3,855,684 TEU, and the company has 5 new large ships waiting for delivery. The total capacity of these 5 new ships is 115,000 TEU. After all ships are delivered, MSC’s The total capacity will reach 3970684TEU.
Maersk’s current operating capacity is 4094302 TEU, order capacity is 46140 TEU, and the total capacity including new ship orders is 4140442 TEU.
Consolidation market is hot
The price of the container shipping market has continued to run at a high level recently. On November 13, the latest Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1857.33 points, an increase of 11.6% over the previous period. The SCFI index has hit a new high since the 2008 financial crisis.
Zhang Yongfeng, director of the International Shipping Research Institute of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, analyzed to a reporter from China Securities News that the recent epidemic in Europe and the United States has rebounded sharply. Import demand for daily necessities is strong, market volume is rising, container supply is tight, and the spot market freight rate The sharp increase drove the comprehensive freight index to rise.
"November is generally the traditional off-season for container shipping. This year's market conditions have far exceeded expectations. At present, the container shipping market has relatively abundant cargo and higher freight rates, continuing the pre-hot trend." Zhang Yongfeng said.
Data from the China Ports Association show that my country's foreign trade imports and exports have continued to improve recently, especially exports have further accelerated. In early November, the container throughput of the eight major hub ports increased by 13.1% year-on-year, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous period. The foreign trade container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by 11.5% year-on-year, and the domestic trade increased by 18.3% year-on-year, both significantly faster than the previous period. In terms of subregions, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions have seen strong growth in foreign trade business, with Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangzhou and Shenzhen growing at over 10%. Among them, the growth rate of Ningbo Zhoushan Port reached 33%.
With strong demand in the container shipping market, international shipping freight prices have continued to rise since June this year, and shipping prices on European routes, Persian Gulf routes, and South American routes have all increased significantly. At the same time, the domestic export container freight index is also rising sharply.
Han Jun, chief analyst of CITIC Construction Investment Transportation, believes that from the current situation, most shipping companies have already booked the space in late December. On November 22, major routes such as the European route will still see a rise in freight rates. According to information from major liner companies, freight rates will remain at a high level before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival next year, the shipping company will implement the suspension plan as usual. The maintenance of freight rates at a high level after March is a high probability event.
Zhang Yongfeng believes that the reason for the recent boom in the shipping market is the result of multiple factors. On the one hand, due to the impact of the global epidemic, demand was suppressed in the first half of the year, and many businesses had the need to replenish inventory; on the other hand, a large number of epidemic prevention materials were exported, and the demand for home shopping in overseas markets increased. In addition, the poor turnover of shipping containers further pushed up freight rates.
In a recent survey conducted by investors, CIMC said: “Currently, our company’s container orders have been scheduled to around the Spring Festival next year. The demand in the container market has increased significantly recently. The reasons are that first, affected by the epidemic, exported containers are scattered all over the world. The return is not smooth; second, foreign governments have introduced financial stimulus such as the epidemic relief plan, which has led to super strong performance on the demand side (such as living and office supplies) in the short term, and the housing economy is booming. It is currently judged that the “lack of boxes” situation will continue for at least some time. But the whole year of next year is not clear."
CITIC Construction Investment Research Report believes that the fundamental reason is the continuous and rapid growth of the demand side. According to data from the Container Trade Statistics Corporation (CTS), the growth rate of global container shipping trade volume remained flat in July 2020, and cargo volume accelerated in August and September. The volume of cargo in September increased by nearly 8% year-on-year. Looking at the year-on-year growth rate of the east-west trunk routes, the demand on the two major routes continued to expand, and the US route even expanded to a growth rate of more than 20%.
The research report pointed out that in the medium term, the replenishment of inventory in the US retail and wholesale industry has not yet ended, and the inventory cycle will last for at least half a year, laying the foundation for continuous improvement in demand. The achievement of RCEP can significantly reduce tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, further strengthen the position of the manufacturing center in the Far East, and lay the foundation for the growth of regional maritime trade. In addition, from the supply side, the proportion of shipbuilding orders held is at the lowest level in history. Even considering the impact of new shipbuilding, the delivery period will be after the second half of 2023, and there is no basis for large-scale launch of capacity.
"It is still hard to say that the shipping industry has recovered in an all-round way. Overall, the global epidemic is a bad factor for the shipping industry. The epidemic has changed the cycle of cargo shipments, and traditional shipping seasonal characteristics are not so obvious." Zhang Yongfeng said.
Consolidation company makes a big profit
In the third quarter just past, the container shipping market experienced a shortage of containers and skyrocketing ocean freight. At the same time, all liner companies continue to implement strict capacity management and cost control. In this context, liner companies’ performance has increased significantly.
Despite the decline in cargo volume, through combing the performance of various liner companies, in the third quarter of 2020, the revenue of 10 major liner companies in the world is still higher than the same period last year. All 10 liner companies achieved profits in the third quarter, with a total profit of 3.412 billion U.S. dollars, which was less than 800 million U.S. dollars in the same period last year, which was 4.27 times the same period last year.
Among them, Maersk has the highest profit, reaching 1.043 billion US dollars, and it is also the only liner company with a profit of 1 billion. Evergreen Shipping's profit increased the most, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 60 times.
In addition, there are three liner companies that are particularly interesting.
Among them, Star Shipping's performance in the third quarter increased by 28 times. Who would have thought that this company was once on the verge of bankruptcy. More importantly, Star Shipping has seized this opportunity in the e-commerce market and opened multiple e-commerce routes this year, driving a substantial increase in performance.
In addition, Yangming Shipping ended its long-term loss and achieved quarterly profit for the first time. But at the end of September just before the announcement of the results, Yangming Shipping announced the retirement of its former chairman Xie Zhijian. But for this achievement, old coach Xie Zhijian contributed a lot.
Finally, HMM stabilized its profitability. HMM once ended 21 consecutive quarters of losses in the second quarter of this year. At that time, the industry had different views on whether it could continue to make profits in the third quarter. The market situation has created opportunities for HMM.
On the whole, with operating income basically remaining stable, the major liner companies have achieved profits several times or even dozens of times the same period last year, which can be said to have made a lot of money.
Looking ahead to next year, the analysis agency Sea-Intelligence also changed its previous forecast, predicting that the pre-interest and tax (EBIT) of the container shipping industry in 2020 will reach 14.2 billion US dollars. In April of this year, the agency predicted that the impact of the epidemic might cost the entire shipping industry US$23 billion.
Sea-Intelligence said: "There is no doubt that the performance of liner companies in 2020 will not only far exceed last year, but even better than the level of the past 8 years."
This forecast conclusion is based on the increase in freight and freight volume.
Data from Container Trades Statistics shows that in the first nine months of 2020, global container shipping volumes have fallen by 3.4%. However, the cargo volume situation has reversed sharply in recent months. In September this year, the global container shipping volume has increased by 6.9%.
Based on this, Sea-Intelligence believes: "If this growth is maintained in the fourth quarter, the global container shipping volume will only fall by 0.8% in 2020."
After the end of the third quarter, some large liner companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also raised their full-year profit expectations. CMA CGM also stated that the market will remain strong for the rest of this year.
Although most liner companies are still more cautious about the market prospects and believe that next year's situation is unpredictable, Drewry believes that despite the second wave of the epidemic, they have optimistic expectations for liner companies' earnings in 2021.
