Equipment shortages, strong demand, and soaring freight rates in Asia and Europe have almost run through the entire Christmas-New Year holiday. Freight forwarders and carriers are almost unlikely to see market conditions ease before the Chinese New Year in February.
According to data from the Baltic Daily Freight Index (FBX), spot prices from China to Northern Europe reached an incredible $7,701 per TEU on January 15 , a year-on-year increase of 268%.
The freight rate from China to the Mediterranean region also drew the same curve, and the rate per FEU7496 USD increased by 203% over the same period last year.
Data from Xeneta, an internationally renowned freight benchmark and market analysis platform, shows that since the end of October 2020, spot freight rates in Asia and Europe have risen almost vertically, from US$1,164 per TEU to US$4,191 on January 2, 2021.
These indexes reflect the total rate of trade payments, and shippers are also reporting that freight forwarders have given them eye-popping prices for Asia-Europe freight. A shipper told reporters that, last week, a freight company reported a one-week Asia-Northern Europe freight rate, which reached US$13,000 to US$16,000 per FEU.
The shipper said: "I know the capacity of this route may be more tight than other routes, but such prices are still too crazy."
From February 12th, China will begin to celebrate the Lunar New Year, and factories are usually closed for three weeks around the Spring Festival. However, since the beginning of this year, there have been various mixed reports from Chinese manufacturers. Some factories will cancel holidays in order to cope with the backlog of orders, and some factories will take longer holidays.
This uncertainty makes the capacity management of carriers more difficult. The sea intelligence agency (sea intelligence) recently stated in a newsletter that during the three-week Spring Festival beginning at the end of January, the carrier has so far announced only seven cancellations of the Asia-Europe route. The shipowners have announced that they will cut their total capacity by 6% to 13%, compared with 40% in January last year.
The newsletter pointed out that shipowners usually announce cancelled flights six to eight weeks before the Spring Festival, putting people under pressure of "time pressing". However, there may be other reasons behind the silence of the shipowner.
A Maersk spokesperson said that although the demand outlook for this year is still limited, the current freight purchase model and the supply of container equipment and ships are only temporary. Maersk expects that demand will "normalize" in the first half of the year, and plans to reduce voyages around the Spring Festival to rebalance the flow of containers. The spokesperson said that stocks in the US and European markets have basically been replenished, and the introduction of vaccines "will also ease this situation."
For the time being, we still see no signs of weakening demand
But obviously not everyone agrees with Maersk's view. Dominique von Orelli, Executive Vice President and Global Head of Ocean Freight at DHL Global Forwarding, said that continued strong demand will keep container freight rates high in the first quarter of this year run. He said that " this extremely strong demand momentum" showed no signs of abating .
Von Aurely said, "During the Spring Festival, freight rates may drop slightly, but the overall upward momentum should continue until March or even the second quarter." He added that any shipment exceeding the agreed minimum quantity commitment (MQC) The volume will increase the price.
"Now if you go to a retail store in Germany and want to buy a sports jacket, or go to IKEA to buy a bed, or go to a furniture dealer to buy a chair, they will give you a lead time of 12 weeks or more because the inventory has been It’s emptied.” The source added, “Most companies are trying to replenish inventory, but at the same time, the strong demand has not been reduced. Therefore, it is still difficult to increase the inventory to the customer’s demand. It will take some time to achieve The state of supply and demand balance, so we predict that demand will not stabilize until March or April."
Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, also holds the same view. He said in the latest market report in late December last year, "Two months ago, I said that (high) demand will continue until the Chinese New Year. The traffic will drop."
He added: "Today, I have to honestly say that we may still have to deal with very high transportation volumes in the future. After all, the bottleneck that cannot ease the current capacity shortage is not only in the logistics link, but also in the production link. There is still a lot of work to be done. I’m afraid it will take some time to solve the bottleneck. China Spring Energy allows us to breathe in two to three weeks. But not everything will be resolved within this time."
Since the peak of the third quarter of 2020, with the high demand in Asia and Europe, China has faced a serious shortage of empty containers. The executive of the European logistics industry said that the problem of tight container supply will continue into the second quarter. He said: "The second quarter is expected to see the relief of the new crown epidemic. By then, there will be more labor supply in warehouses and terminals in Europe and other destinations, which will accelerate the flow of containers."
