The spot rates in Europe have surged by 230 percent compared with the same period last year, after a sharp rise initially due to the outbreak lagging the Pan-Pacific region.
At present, the freight quotation from Asia to Europe has exceeded $10,000 /40 feet high container.
Towards the end of the year, European market volumes remain high.The recurrence of the epidemic has also stimulated local import demand growth, and the demand for transport between Asia and Europe's Mediterranean is strong.The containers shortage has also affected European routes, with strong market demand and severe equipment shortages expected to continue beyond the Spring Festival in 2021.
At present, due to the severe epidemic situation in Europe, Germany has taken "mandatory measures" to close down the city. Coupled with numerous uncertainties such as brexit, major ports in the UK are severely congested, cargo volume of European ports has plummeted, and shipping companies have jumped to their ports. Please pay attention to the recent shipment to Europe.
Freight forwarders are feeling over $10000 freight rates of hot Asia-Europe route market.
According to the freight agent, shippers are postponing or cancelling shipments pending a certain adjustment in freight rates due to a year-on-year increase of at least 5 times and the total freight rates for some shipments have exceeded US $10,000 /FEU.
Liner ship operators have cut UK import quotas to ease congestion at UK ports amid capacity constraints and congestion at major container ports in the UK and China.
However, booking space severely exceeded the remaining quota, resulting in severe backlogs at busy Chinese ports including Yantian, Ningbo, Shanghai and Qingdao.
Hapag-Lloyd announced increase rates from Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean
Hapag-Lloyd has announced new prices from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean, effective January 1, 2021.
Last week we looked at the question, “Can anyone be a freight forwarder?”
how to choose a freight forwarder Hariesh commented on our blog, as well as mentioning in his own, that “any Tom, Dick, or Harry can call themselves a Freight Forwarder.”
Of course, you don’t want any Tom, Dick, or Harry handling your imports and exports. It’s important your freight forwarder knows how to handle your international shipping.
With all the freight forwarders that are out there, and the surprising ease to call yourself a freight forwarder, how do you go about choosing a freight forwarder whom you can be confident in?
Well, today’s blog covers just that. Here are 5 tips on how to choose a freight forwarder.
1. MAKE SURE THE FREIGHT FORWARDER HAS EXPERIENCE.
This could almost be the whole list. Experience, experience, experience.
It might be fairly easy to start a freight forwarding company, but the international shipping industry is not the easiest business sector in the world and if you don’t know what you’re doing, you won’t last long.
During TJ China Freight’s 27+ years as a freight forwarder, we’ve seen many, many company’s come and go.
Years of experience means your freight forwarder has dealt with different situations like dockworker strikes and port shutdowns, needs for rerouting cargo, smoothing out customs or warehousing issues, and so on.
Experience usually means your freight forwarder will help you avoid customs, warehousing, and routing problems before they even start so your international shipping will go smoothly.
Experience also gives time for a company to form and cultivate business relations around the world from which you will benefit. Which brings us to…
2. ASK ABOUT THE FREIGHT FORWARDER’S NETWORK OF AGENTS AND BUSINESS PARTNERS IN THE COUNTRY YOU’RE EXPORTING TO OR IMPORTING FROM.
This is obviously important for the local handling of your international shipments.
Your freight forwarder should have a strong network around the world, but you need to know that they have the connections in the countries/cities of origin and destination for your imports and exports.
If you’re exporting and importing to and from Germany, it doesn’t matter how good the freight forwarder’s connections are in China.
TJ China Freight has a very large network and ships to and from almost anywhere in the world; however, you may have noticed a key word in there: almost. There are a few places in the world TJ China Freight does not ship to or from.
You may have found a freight forwarder who is great for shipping to the Philippines, but don’t have the connections or experience to do a great job handling your imports from China. So make sure you ask about your freight forwarder’s connections and experience in the specific locations you need.
Business partnerships around the world also allow your freight forwarder to offer additional services, which brings us to…
3. MAKE SURE THE FREIGHT FORWARDER OFFERS THE SERVICES YOU NEED FOR YOUR SHIPMENT.
Look at the services the freight forwarder offers.
A freight forwarder should be able to handle more than just the air shipping or ocean shipping part of your import or export. They should also be able to handle the rail and/or trucking portion of your international shipping.
I guess if you only need port to port services instead of door to door shipping, you wouldn’t find it a big deal whether or not the freight forwarder offers this service; however, if they do not have a trucking option, that says something about the freight forwarder’s network.
However, there are more services you may want from your freight forwarder. For example, TJ China Freight partnered with TOLL to offer Supply Chain Value Added Services. This means we can help you with things like warehousing, distribution, etc.
Of course, cargo insurance better be among their services and shipment tracking is nice to have if only for your peace of mind.
4. MAKE SURE THE FREIGHT FORWARDER HAS GOOD REFERENCES.
This is good advice when you’re looking for any kind of service, not just freight forwarding.
If there’s no one willing to say a freight forwarder did a great job taking care of their imports and exports, that’s a big red flag.
5. MAKE SURE THE FREIGHT FORWARDER HAS GOOD CUSTOMER SERVICE.
This is hugely important.
How fast does the freight forwarder get back to you on your freight rate request or on answering your questions?
If you’re new to international shipping, are they able and willing to walk you through what you need to know and do to make sure all goes well with your imports and exports?
Your sales person at a freight forwarding company may not have all the answers to your questions as they might be new to the company or even the industry, but they should be able to get the answers for you from the experienced team they’re working with.
How good your freight forwarder is at taking care of your individual needs speaks a great deal about their ability to give the needed attention to your shipments.
Notice, I didn’t even put freight rates in this list as much more important is your freight forwarder’s ability to take care of your shipping needs professionally and precisely.
One freight forwarder may offer shipping rates well below the rest of the competition, but you’ll usually find yourself paying for choosing them in additional costs, delays, and very poor customer service.
But if you follow the five tips above, you should find a freight forwarder who has the contracts and network which allow them to offer competitive rates.
As we all know, the tariffs of South American countries are very high, and customs clearance is difficult. Brazil is a country of South America, and one of the hardest to do so. Today, I'll follow the search network for the Brazil customs clearance.
Brazil is a developing country. In order to protect its industrial production, it has adopted a tax protection policy on foreign imports in terms of imports. Brazil customs is a few countries to check the strict international parcel inspection, for they rate as high as one hundred percent, does not meet the requirements for shipment of goods or the customs will return the goods will be shipped, and shipped back to have a cost.
The main reason for the goods being imported by the Brazil customs is that the correct document information can not be provided during the customs clearance, and the timely homework can greatly reduce the possibility that the goods will be detained by the Brazil customs office so as to smooth customs clearance.
What are the requirements for customs clearance in Brazil?
The common customs clearance documents used in Brazil are bills of lading, invoices, boxes, fumigation certificates, power of attorney (both in Portuguese and English versions). NCM encoding and imported party bill of lading must be marked on the goods CNPJ number, NCM encoding HS encoding similar to the international general, to classify and tax on the product, CNPJ, is similar to the registration number, to determine the importer's identity and qualification. In addition to the invoice indicating the consignor, name, weight, volume, value, contract number, departure, destination and other basic information, but also need to indicate the product price, and address of the manufacturer. The International Plant Protection Convention as "" (International Plant Protection Convention, referred to as IPPC) signatory, Brazil in June 1, 2005 since the implementation of "international trade in wood packing material management standards" (ISPM15), for wood packing material requirements after fumigation / disinfection treatment and affix the IPPC logo.
Brazil customs special bill of lading requirements:
At the customs of the Brazil, all non - individual goods (missing or incorrect documents) will be deemed to be smuggled immediately after unloading and will be seized by the customs and fined. At the same time, the customs of the Brazil has the following special requirements for the original bill of lading:
1) the consignee shall not be "TO ORDER"".
If the bill of lading the consignee (Consignee) as "TO ORDER", the goods will be detained by customs, submit to the Brazil customs system until the consignee details (including complete address, telephone, fax number CPNJ enterprises, etc. and contact etc.), the customs will allow the delivery.
2) the Brazil customs does not accept the description of the general cargo. Such as: Department, good, merchandise, Chemical, Dry, cargo and so on.
3) must be labeled with the consignee (Consignee) enterprise tariff CPNJ goods, Brazil commercial customs NCM code encoding. If Notify and Consignee are different, also must identify its corporate tax CNPJ. In addition, the bill of lading must indicate the volume of the goods (per cubic meter).
4) the freight must be marked in figures and words at the same time on the bill of lading.
Brazil customs - Documentation / equipment inspection
For different channels of goods, the customs will take different means of inspection, in accordance with past experience, most Chinese products will be classified as yellow or red channel, rarely included in the green channel. For the goods of the Yellow channel, the customs will focus on the inspection of customs documents, evaluate the information of the value of the goods, the quantity of goods and the classification of the goods, and release them in the case of the audit. For the red channel of the goods, the situation is more complicated, first by the customs officer of customs documents for review, and then assigned to the port customs inspection personnel on-site inspection, if still unable to obtain the accurate judgment, should be combined with the third party inspection engineer jointly issued by the official inspection and report. From the beginning of the inspection to the issue of a report often takes weeks, this link is the entire customs clearance process in a longer period of time, but also the most difficult to grasp the link.
Brazil customs clearance procedures cumbersome
According to the world economic forum released the "2014-2015" in the global competitiveness report, ranked 144 countries (or regions), in the Brazil customs efficiency ranked 138, so the export of goods to Brazil for a long time, need to have patience.
There are three main tariff rates for imported goods in Brazil:
1 federal taxes
A. import duties. According to different commodities, the import tax rate is different. The average tax rate is now 17%. General raw material tax rate is very low or zero; consumer goods in general is about 20-30%.
B. industrial product tax. The average tax rate is 10%, which is a progressive tax, and is calculated at the price of CIF plus the total value of the import duty.
2. State taxes
C. commodity circulation service tax, which is equivalent to VAT, is a progressive tax, and is calculated at the CIF price plus the import duty, the processing industry, and the total value of the product tax. There are two tax rates, 17% and 18%, 18% in St Paul and 17% in all other states (both of which refer to transactions within the state) Depends on the state of the importer.
Brazil customs is not generally high, in addition to import tariffs and other mixed taxes, customs clearance to pay tips. Moreover, many products in Brazil have anti-dumping duties, and if Chinese goods are exported to Brazil at a high tariff, entrepot trade may be considered.
What products does China levy against the tax on Brazil?
Brazil Chinese of automotive glass, safety glass refrigeration appliances, agricultural tires, truck tires, bicycle tires, motorcycle tires frameless glass mirror, ball pen, coil, ring magnet, plastic vacuum tubes, seamless steel pipe, PVC resin, ceramic filter, two oxygen
Mozambique is a country in southern Africa. At present, there is no direct flight between China and Mozambique, and Chinese citizens can transfer to Mozambique via South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and qatar. The Bole International Airport air traffic hub in Africa, many African countries went to other passengers in transit.
Ten city of Mozambique, Nampula, Maputo, Bella, Peng Ba Whelan, Kulusi Tete, Inhambane, Chris Mane, etc., Chimoio Lichinga airport. Which Maputo is the capital of Mozambique, located at the southern tip of Mozambique, near the India Yanmar Maputo Bay, is not political, economic and cultural center, the country's largest city. Maputo port is one of the major ports in East africa.
Maputo International Airport (IATA Code: MPM; ICAO Code: FQMA) is a civil airport 3 kilometers northwest of Mozambique, capital of the Republic of Maputo. Main international, regional and international demand of passenger and freight transport business, many waypoints to the main city of African countries and region, and the Portuguese airline to fly to Lisbon flights, Qatar Airlines operating flights to Doha.
Chinese cargo flights to Mozambique Maputo many, Qatar Airways, Ethiopia airlines, Turkey airlines, South African Airways have flights to Guangzhou, Hongkong, Shanghai, from the start, Beijing, aged 5-7 days. Hongkong to Maputo air freight about RMB40/1000KG+, the volume of goods is not recommended to go, suitable for the value of high, aging requirements of high goods.
Cargo price usually by air freight, fuel surcharge, war of three parts, logistics Baba cargo price is mainly composed of air freight charges, documentation fees, operating fees, manifest pre recorded fees, fuel surcharges. Customers can also add custom declaration, insurance and other value-added activities according to their requirements.
Air freight forwarding is the general freight forwarding to the airport, the customer needs to go to the airport, their own customs clearance and delivery, if the need for customs clearance, the cost is relatively high.
Exports to Mozambique ordinary no special requirements, but the foreign customs tax is serious. The raw material tariff is 2.5%, the fixed assets (class K), the tariff 5%, the tariff for the assembled goods is 7.5%, and the consumer goods is 20%. Customs clearance requirements, packing list, invoice, bill of lading, PSI inspection, certificate of origin, etc.. The government has stopped exporting pornographic and pornographic books and periodicals, film and television, posing as commodities, pirated goods and goods of false origin.
Search air network Maputo air transport, low-cost transit, can receive general cargo, bulk cargo, wooden boxes need to be hit. Airline one to one follow-up, cargo tracking, higher security. From China's air transport export to Mozambique, according to customer requirements, layout, door-to-door, and delivery of the destination.
After the freight rate in the trans-Pacific market has remained stable for a period of time, it has recently started a rising mode.
According to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (Freightos Baltic Daily Index), on December 28, 2020, the freight rate of the Asia-US West Coast route reached US$4,189/FEU, a record high, an increase of 8% from December 25, which is the year of 2019. 3 times over the same period.
At the same time, the freight rate of the Asia-US East Coast route also reached an astonishing US$5397/FEU, a 9% increase from December 25 and twice the rate of the same period in 2019.
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on December 25, 2020, the freight rates (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the basic port markets of the West and the East of the United States were 4,080 USD/FEU and 4,876 USD/FEU, respectively. The US West route rose 4.6% from the previous week.
Analysts of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that the average space utilization rate of ships on the Shanghai Port to the West and East U.S. routes maintained at a level close to full load. However, the U.S. epidemic has blocked the turnover of containers, and a large number of containers are stranded at the local terminal. The congestion of the port is increasing, and the shortage of containers has not been alleviated.
In addition, a number of shipping companies including CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen Shipping, HMM, ONE, Yangming Shipping, and Star Shipping have announced that they will start on the trans-Pacific route from January 1, 2021. , Charge a comprehensive rate increase surcharge (GRI) ranging from US$1,000 to US$1,200/FEU.
The market predicts that the upward trend of freight rates will continue until January 2021.
In contrast to the fast-growing transportation demand, after a fully loaded ship arrived at the US West Port, it faced the dilemma of nowhere to stop.
According to a report released by the Marine Exchange of Southern California on December 28, 2020, a total of 24 container ships are anchored in San Pedro Bay, and another 5 ships are about to arrive.
According to the report, the local conventional anchorages are full of ships, and some emergency anchorages have also been occupied.
Marine Traffic uses an automatic identification system to draw a map that shows the extent of the accumulation of container ships in San Pedro Bay, which has deteriorated in recent weeks.
According to statistics, 26 additional ships called at the Port of Los Angeles in November and 31 ships in December. A port manager said that it is expected that in January 2021, more additional ships will call.
The loading and unloading capacity of the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has already faced serious shortages. The Port of Los Angeles will import 116,500 TEU containers this week, and it is expected to increase significantly to 150,000 TEU per week by January 2021.
The continuous increase in freight rates and the severe congestion at the US West Port have caused shippers’ costs to hit unprecedented highs, and shippers have to reassess their transportation cost budgets for 2021.
According to the news on December 29, it is reported that due to bad weather, coupled with the epidemic and holiday packages, there has been a surge in packages. According to statistics, about 6 million packages are piled up in warehouses in the United States every day . Data in the third week of December showed that UPS's on-time delivery rate has dropped from 93% to around 86% .
Pei Jiahua, president of FedEx Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa, said in a statement that the epidemic has disrupted the supply chain and production lines, and has had an impact on reliability delivery, but this peak freight season will be one of the busiest seasons in history.
It is reported that recently, many express companies such as Amazon and UPS in the United States have announced the suspension of aging guarantees and price increases.
Foreign media reported that retailers said that due to the squeeze of demand, FedEx FedEx is restricting the number of retailers' delivery, and retailers are now restricted from sending 75 packages a day .
According to the CEP-Research website, FedEx will increase most of the U.S. express and ground freight charges by 4.9% from January 4, 2021 ; in addition, from December 27 this year, United Parcel will charge for the use of its ground in the United States. Non-contractual customers for aviation and international services charge an average of 4.9% more.
It is understood that the U.S. Postal Service is also considering increasing the price of transportation services after obtaining approval from relevant price management agencies. According to the plan, the U.S. Postal Service will increase the prices of various transportation services by 1.2%-20% from January 24, 2021 . Among them, priority mail will increase prices by 3.5%, and priority mail express will increase prices by 1.2%.
The shipping industry in 2020 can be said to be half winter and half summer.
Affected by the epidemic, China's exports declined in the first half of the year, and the shipping industry was cold and "overwintering" ahead of schedule. In the second half of the year, the neglected shipping industry directly entered the "midsummer." As the epidemic situation in China stabilizes and the economy recovers steadily, goods from all countries are transferred from Chinese ports. For a time, China's shipping industry is showing a busy scene.
“It’s too difficult to order containers now!” A reporter from the Securities Daily could see vehicles transporting containers coming and going at the Shanghai port. A foreign trade official who did not want to be named told the reporter: “At present, I want to order a container. The price can be said to be one price per day. Not only that, even if the container is booked, I still have to worry about the availability of the cabin."
"Shanghai SIPG, Ningbo, and Shenzhen are all major ports in the world. In 2018 and 2019, the container throughput of Shanghai Port was ranked first. Recently, the container shipping market is very hot, and many boxes cannot be returned after they go out." People from listed companies commented on the reporter of "Securities Daily".
In this regard, Liu Wang, chairman of Shanghai Tianhui International Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters: “The price of container transportation has been rising. Because shipping companies have fewer ships, they often suspend voyages, and the lack of boxes is common, even if the price increases. It cannot fundamentally solve the problem of missing boxes."
• One price a day, "boxes" are crazy
"The most exaggerated time in the past 10 years." Speaking of the current shipping industry, Ms. Xie, who is engaged in the foreign trade industry, told a reporter from the Securities Daily. Ms. Xie is mainly responsible for the freight of Guangzhou Nansha Port and Shenzhen Port. She told reporters that taking a 40-foot container as an example, the highest sea freight to the Middle East at this time last year was about US$3,000. It costs almost US$5,000 now. Last year, it was US$2,800 to US$3,200 to Europe, and now it is US$6,000 to US$7,000. This year, the freight is almost twice the same period last year.
By the end of the year, the lack of positions became a true portrayal of the operation industry.
“Nowadays, there is a shortage of containers and high freight rates. The supply exceeds demand. During the epidemic, there was a large backlog of foreign containers that could not be arranged for delivery, and no one carried the goods. Almost all customers were looting containers. Under current market conditions, there are few freight forwarders. When looking for new customers, they are basically priority old customers.” Ms. Xie told reporters that the new year is approaching, and major suppliers are fully shipping. It is expected that the shortage of containers will continue.
"First of all you have to have a position, then you have to line up the truck to get the container, and finally you have to wait for the port to open before you can enter the port. Every day, you have to go through five hurdles, and you have to face customer soul torture. It's late, can't you figure it out?" A shipping forwarder complained about the tightness of the current export containers.
Liu Wang revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many forwarders who have no boxes sometimes look for scalpers. Now forwarders are looting positions. The positions have to be booked in advance. Many people robbed and reselled them. In the past, they did not lose their shipping fees. Now that the shipping companies are recovering their losses, the shipping companies are about to usher in a wave of market conditions this year. After the merger and reorganization last year, it is estimated that all the money lost in the past will be made back this year."
Liu Wang said: “In the past Christmas and the Spring Festival, there will be a wave of liquidation market, this year is particularly fierce because of the epidemic. South American container boxes were the lowest in history at 50 US dollars a small container, and now basically it costs more than 5,000 US dollars, and a large box 10,000. U.S. dollars, if $5,000 this week is too expensive for you, you may not be able to order $6,000 next week, basically one price a week."
In fact, the current container price has been upgraded to a daily basis. A person in charge of an international logistics company said: “In Qingdao Port, the price of a second-hand 40-foot container in previous years was about US$2,000. On November 27 this year, the price rose to US$2,850; by November 30, the price of a second-hand container rose to US$3,200. ; On December 3, it rose to 3,400 US dollars again, almost one day."
According to data from the freight benchmark company Xeneta, the current average price of short-term market contracts in Asia and Europe for three months or less is 200% higher than a year ago, at $4,831 per 40 feet. But from the same period last year, freight rates across Southeast Asia have increased by an astonishing 390.5%.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings told reporters: “As the volume of goods continues to rise, the demand for export containers has greatly increased, and the domestic guarantee for container use has become tighter. However, the turnover of overseas empty containers has generally slowed due to the continuous impact of the epidemic situation in various places. Transfer back to China to meet demand."
"The whole industry is looking for boxes everywhere, and some merchants are beginning to hoard boxes to speculate on prices." In the eyes of industry insiders, the current situation of foreign trade companies being difficult to find a box is not only because of the slow operation of containers, but also because of the reduction of some routes. .
"There are few ship lines, and most of the cabinets shipped abroad can't return. This is the root cause of the skyrocketing price of the domestic container transportation market." Liu Wang explained to the reporter: "It's not that foreign cabinets are not coming back. It is the epidemic situation abroad. The impact is that the workers do not go to work and the speed of transportation is relatively slow. Now everyone is sharing the warehouse."
According to Liu Wang, the container ships now and the alliance has been formed since last year. Originally, it used its own ships to transport the goods. Now four or five shipowners or five or six companies form an alliance, and use the same ship. warehouse. "It turns out that there may be several shipping companies arranging several shifts to go to sea in a week. Once we formed an alliance, the shifts decreased in a week. This started last year. Now shipping companies often stop once a week, which objectively leads to a shortage of ships. ."
A person in charge of the Shanghai Maritime Logistics Company introduced to a reporter from the Securities Daily: "At present, the proportion of import and export trade by sea is imbalanced. There are few boxes coming in and many boxes going out . In addition, China has quickly prevented and controlled the epidemic, and overseas orders have continued to surge. , Increasing the pressure on shipping. Overseas, affected by the epidemic, the operation cycle of containers shipped out due to business environment problems has been lengthened, the arrival process has increased, and the operation efficiency has slowed and lengthened the circulation cycle. Due to the early outbreak of the epidemic, major shipping The company has reduced many routes, resulting in uneven distribution of global container volumes."
The industry believes that with the increase in market demand, the current effective capacity is obviously insufficient.
The relevant person in charge of COSCO Shipping Holdings revealed to the reporter: "As the global epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, global trade has been rapidly repaired since the third quarter of this year, and the demand in the container shipping market has recovered beyond expectations. In order to meet the growth of transportation demand, market capacity has gradually returned to normal. , The idle capacity has dropped rapidly from the record high of more than 2.7 million TEU (international standard unit units) in May this year. At present , there is no airworthy effective capacity to rent in the market. "
In the context of uneven global container deployment, container prices on different routes have also risen at different rates.
"Since November, the price of the U.S. line has increased by about four times compared with the beginning of the year, and the European line has risen to the highest price last year. From the perspective of the distribution of China’s export routes, the U.S. container accounts for 25%, Europe accounts for 25%, and Southeast Asia , Northeast Asia adds up to 50%, the US route is now hard to find a box is the norm, followed by the European route, freight is also very tight. The price of Malaysia route in Southeast Asia has also doubled recently." The person in charge of the aforementioned logistics company added.
Facing the increase in demand for containers, the above-mentioned relevant person in charge of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings stated: “The company will strengthen scientific forecasts for container use, actively coordinate dual-brand superior resources, and make every effort to guarantee the use of containers during peak seasons. On the one hand, internally tap the potential and accelerate overseas heavy container Demolition speed, increase empty container callback domestic and Far East efforts to promote container turnover; on the other hand, close communication with container manufacturers and container leasing companies to seek more container sources. Through two-pronged and multiple measures, to guarantee domestic container use Provide effective assistance and try our best to meet the shipping needs of customers."
In order to meet the development needs of the container market, SIPG has launched a number of effective measures to promote container volume growth in response to the market. At the beginning of this year, the Group launched seven special measures for container growth, through the implementation of preferential international transit loading and unloading fees, extension of the international transit container storage exemption period, and sea-rail intermodal customs clearance container preferential projects. In the first half of the year, the Group established three major container areas: Yangshan, Outer Harbor, and Domestic Trade, striving to achieve overall planning and agglomeration effects.
According to SIPG’s official announcement, in October, each terminal of Shanghai Port set a new record. The monthly throughput of Shengdong Company exceeded 820,000 TEUs for the first time. Among them, 33068 TEUs and 12899.75 TEUs were updated on October 25. Class record; Guandong Company broke through 720,000 TEU, setting a new record again.
• How long can the "shortage of containers" last? What is the future prospect of the shipping industry?
"The first half of the year was affected by the new crown epidemic. Ports and shipping fields did suffer a relatively large negative impact, so the first half of the year was basically a negative growth state. In the second half of the year, especially after the third quarter, normal operations resumed to a certain extent, plus China The epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, and most of the economic activities have been resumed first. Therefore, compared with the first half of the year, there is indeed a big sign of a bottoming out." said Liu Dian, a research assistant at the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China.
In the first two months of this year, my country's foreign trade imports and exports dropped significantly. According to China Customs data, from January to February 2020, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.
Although the current domestic epidemic situation is under control, the global epidemic is breaking out, and exports are still under certain impact.
It can be said that in the first half of this year, people in the shipping industry were mainly pessimistic about my country's export prospects. In the second half of the year, the industry was generally optimistic about the future development of the shipping industry.
Insiders analyzed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that this round of container freight price increases began in the middle of this year. At that time, after the domestic epidemic was brought under control, foreign countries were greatly affected by the epidemic, and many overseas orders were transferred to the domestic market. When shipping from China, the shipping price began to rise. According to Liu Wang's prediction, this round of price increases will continue until the first quarter of next year.
An unnamed person in charge of maritime logistics said: "As the epidemic stabilizes, this hot market will continue into the first half of next year, or even longer."
"This wave of increase in container shipping prices has driven the adjustment of the entire foreign trade sector, breaking the laws of the past decades in the industry. Not only ocean freight, air freight and land transportation have different levels of influence and changes. The epidemic has accelerated the entire large trade sector. The consolidation and adjustment of the shipping sector will gradually move towards intensive development. Shipping companies have become monopolistic after years of integration and mergers. The aviation sector and the land transport sector are also rapidly integrated, and a new chapter will emerge in the future foreign trade field." People say so.
According to Huang Tianhua, chairman of the China Container Industry Association and vice president of CIMC, predicted that the shortage of containers may continue for about six months . He said: "We have monitored that if there are 500,000 new containers in China normally, they are in a completely healthy state if they are ready for use in the docks or ports, but the current tighter inventory is about 300,000 new containers. I expect it to be possible. In the next three months to six months, this slightly tense balance will continue. This is probably a trend in the current industry."
Although the industry is generally optimistic about the shipping industry, Liu Dian believes that the total global trade volume in 2020 will still drop a certain percentage from the previous year, but from the perspective of the shipping industry, it will definitely be from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. There will be a better market.
Liu Dian said: “Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the uncertainties slowed down in the second half of the year, and the overall trend showed a relatively large rebound. Therefore, from a macro perspective, global international trade has rebounded to a certain extent. China is the first to resume the rebound led by the next."
" At present, the shipping industry is mainly affected by three factors :
Di Yi factor is that the global economy is expected to have a recovery, so after the third quarter, international trade has been warmer, led the field of shipping industry as a whole for the better, whether it is from container or just have some trade from the sea to pick up case .
The second factor is that with the signing of the RCEP agreement, a series of regional economic integration cooperation relations in East Asia and Southeast Asia will improve, which will benefit the import and export trade of China and related countries.
The third factor is that although the epidemic has not been eliminated on a global scale, all countries are in short supply, such as medical supplies, production supplies, and living supplies. China is now the world's largest trade surplus country. Under such circumstances, China's export trade, including part of its import trade, will also get a relatively large rebound in demand, and at the same time promote the rise of a series of shipping-related industry indexes in related fields, including the container shipping index. "Liu Dian said.
As the global economy will grow again after the new crown virus pandemic, the dry bulk market may develop towards a new wave of demand for raw materials. Shipbroker Intermodal said in its latest weekly report: “As we all know, the amount of steel forged in China exceeds that of the rest of the world combined, even in this unprecedented new coronavirus pandemic, as iron ore imports increase. China also broke a nine-year record, reaching more than 1 billion tons this year. The market price of iron ore is also very optimistic, because in addition to fundamental factors and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity, iron ore The current trading price of stone is the highest level since the end of 2011 and will increase by nearly 80% by 2020."
Christopher Whitty, Director of Tugboat and Maritime Port Services, said: “China’s iron ore imports mainly come from Australia and Brazil, which play an important role in the dynamics of maritime trade, especially the Capesize freight market. Despite recent tensions between Australia and China Relationship, especially in the coal trade, but we expect that the demand for both materials will be great for the rest of this year, and hopefully this will be the case next year. In the first and second quarters of the new year, all of us At the same time, they all hope to have an effective vaccine so that global commerce can resume to a certain new normal."
Christopher Whitty added: “In terms of coal trade, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of China’s total imports. The navigation distance between the two countries is very short, and the recent escalation of tensions between China and Australia has led to concerns about Australian coal entering China. The unofficial ban came into effect in early November. In addition, it is reported that China recently signed a US$1.5 billion thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which means that Indonesia is expected to enter the Chinese market in 2021.
"Considering the main driving force of the Capesize freight market-iron ore demand, it is expected that China's demand will remain at a relatively high level in the next 12 months; although if iron ore prices remain at such a high level, many steel companies will not Profitable, Chinese steel companies may seek to slightly reduce production. Iron ore demand in many other countries in the world is expected to remain below its 2019 level, and a series of steel producers in Europe and South Asia will remain closed or slowed down , Unless the price of iron ore drops, production will not resume." Industry analysts said.
"China will announce its five-year plan for 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure construction and faster urbanization, especially in the central and western regions of China, which in turn will affect steel Demand. By then, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and a clearer understanding of the impact of vaccines on more populations and their economies."
Whitty concluded: "At interesting moments before us, let us see how this will affect shipping in the new year.
my country is the largest producer, exporter and consumer of toys. At the beginning of this year, affected by the epidemic, Guangdong toy companies lost a large number of foreign orders. The pressure on the industry was huge. Since the second half of the year, the entire industry has continued to pick up, and some companies even have "exports". The situation of “explosive orders”.
But the good and the bad are mixed. Due to the shortage of containers, a large backlog of goods has caused difficulties in delivery. Thousands of containers filled with toys ordered by overseas toy retailers before Christmas are still stuck in ports!
Hot toy export manufacturers' orders will be scheduled until March next year
In a building block factory, the person in charge told reporters that under the epidemic this year, their sales have not fallen but increased. The 5000 square meter factory has been transformed into fully automated production. In the past, more than 200 workers were required to work at the same time, but now they have replaced it. 32 robots work overtime 24 hours a day .
In this toy company in Chenghai District, Shantou City, Guangdong, the reporter saw a busy scene on the production line. The person in charge said that the epidemic did have some impact on them at the beginning of the year, but since April and May, the order volume began to rise. At present, they are running at full power and producing 24 hours a day, but they still cannot meet the needs of overseas customers, and some products are "out of stock".
The person in charge of another toy company that mainly sells overseas said that they did not anticipate the rapid recovery of orders. Due to the shortage of manpower, this year's orders could not be delivered in time for the year before, and new orders for next year are still being found. .
According to data provided by the China Toys and Baby Products Association, due to the impact of the epidemic, the monthly export growth rate of Chinese traditional toys was negative from January to June this year. Starting from July, the monthly export growth rate has turned negative to positive, reaching 21.1%, exports from January to October reached 26.36 billion US dollars, and the cumulative growth rate turned negative to positive, reaching 1.4%. In November, it maintained sustained growth, with exports of 3.89 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 50.8% year-on-year, the largest single-month increase since this year.
Busy production and delivery toy manufacturers are mixed
Toy exports continued to rise, and toy factories received soft orders. At the same time, manufacturers had new troubles.
The reporter saw in a toy factory in Dongguan, Guangdong that there were many products to be shipped stacked in the factory, and only one truck was being loaded. The person in charge said that their customers are mainly large supermarkets and brand toy factories in Europe and the United States. They had to load 30 or 40 cars a day during the peak period. However, the current shortage of containers and the continuous increase in order volume, they are busy with production and worry about delivery. .
Guangdong has a large number of toy companies, with production capacity accounting for more than 70% of the country. The reporter found during a visit to many toy factories in Guangdong that the current export-oriented companies have encountered a shortage of containers. "Lack of containers" is the most common discussion among toy owners. topic. Yuan Moumou is the warehouse supervisor of a toy factory. When the reporter followed him to the warehouse, he found that a large amount of inventory was waiting to be shipped, and even the products produced in April had not been shipped.
The reporter learned during the interview that the current foreign trade toy factories are experiencing varying degrees of product backlog, and the uncertainty of overseas epidemics has slowed the circulation cycle of containers. The Jumbo Group, the largest toy retailer in Greece, said recently that due to the new crown epidemic, thousands of containers full of toys ordered by them in the months before Christmas are still stranded in the port.
Significant increase in export orders from auto parts factories! Orders skyrocketed by 100%, and orders are scheduled until April next year!
Beginning in September this year, the export value of auto parts has reached a new high for three consecutive months. In November, the export of auto parts increased by 41.9% year-on-year. According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in November this year, the export value of auto parts was 5.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.8% month-on-month and 41.9% year-on-year.
The export orders of auto parts factories have increased greatly, and the full production capacity is too late to ship! A person in charge of a wheel production plant in Jinhua, Zhejiang said that all production lines of the plant are operating at full capacity. Due to the substantial increase in export orders this year, one plant is still too busy to produce. Starting from the second half of the year, export orders have grown relatively fast. In the third quarter, compared with the same period last year, it increased by about 50%. In the fourth quarter, we increased by about 100%.
In another factory in Taizhou, Zhejiang that produces automobile shock absorbers, workers are working overtime and production is busy. The person in charge of the company told reporters that the orders received so far have been scheduled to April next year. In the early stage of the epidemic, in March, April and May, our orders were reduced by a certain percentage compared to 2019. Since July, the proportion of orders received has increased by nearly 126%. After August and September, it has increased by about 50% every month.
During the interview, container trucks continued to come to the factory to pick up goods. There were many products waiting to be shipped on both sides of the roads of the factory. The warehouse was also full. Due to the large number of orders this year and the shortage of export containers, many products have not had time to ship.
Yang Fudong, Special Assistant to the Secretary-General of the After-sales Parts Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that more than 70% of China's auto parts exports are used in the independent after-sales market of automobiles. The automotive after-sales market has grown very fast in recent years. The increase in car ownership and the increase in car service life will drive the demand for auto parts. The longer the service life of the car, the faster the replacement frequency of auto parts.
According to Japan's Kyodo news 26, the Japanese government announced the 26th , from the local time at 0:00 on the 28th until the end of January next year, the moratorium on new immigrants from all countries and regions.
According to the Nikkei Shimbun, new entry refers to foreigners who have newly applied for a visa to enter Japan. During Japan’s entry restrictions, Japanese nationals and long-term foreigners living in Japan will be allowed to return to Japan.
Due to the increase in the number of new coronavirus infections that have mutated in countries around the world, the Japanese government has adopted entry restrictions. For natives returning to Japan, the "14-day quarantine" conditional mitigation policy implemented on November 1 has been cancelled, and relevant response measures have been strengthened.
In order to boost economic activities in the cold due to the epidemic, the Japanese government has been advancing the immigration easing policy. However, due to the confirmation of a highly infectious and mutated new coronavirus infection in Japan, epidemic prevention measures have to be strengthened again.
According to the Japan Broadcasting Association, according to the data reported by local governments and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in Japan, from 0:00 to 20:00 local time on the 26th, 3877 new cases were confirmed in Japan. So far, the total number of people infected with new coronary pneumonia in Japan has reached 218,430 There were 47 new deaths and a total of 3234 deaths. On the 26th, 949 people were newly infected in Tokyo, a record high in the number of newly infected people in a single day in Tokyo. The cumulative number of infected people in Tokyo reached 55,851.
On the 25th, local time earlier, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced that it had confirmed the discovery of a virus consistent with the genetic sequence of the mutant new coronavirus discovered in the UK for the first time in Japan. The related 5 infected people returned to Japan from the UK between the 18th and 21st, and the domestic airport quarantine office confirmed the infection of these 5 people. It is reported that 4 of these 5 people are asymptomatic, and a man in his 60s has a feeling of fatigue.
Japan's economy may not recover until 2022
The new crown epidemic has plunged the Japanese economy into an unprecedented recession, and the economic downturn has exceeded that of the United States. Looking forward to 2021, although the Japanese economy is expected to continue to recover slowly, it may be difficult to return to the level before the epidemic.
In the first two quarters of this year, the Japanese economy actually fell 2.1% and 29.2% at an annual rate, respectively. The depth of the economic decline in the second quarter became the largest drop since comparable statistics.
According to CCTV News, on the 8th local time, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced the launch of the third major economic stimulus plan with a total scale of US$708 billion. On the same day, the revised data released by the Cabinet Office of Japan showed that the annual growth rate of the Japanese economy in the third quarter of this year reached 22.9%.
In order to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on the economy, Japan has previously passed two rounds of economic stimulus plans, with a total expenditure of 235 trillion yen (2.25 trillion US dollars), accounting for 40% of Japan's GDP. Compared with this economic stimulus plan, the first two rounds of plans focused on stimulating domestic demand and stimulating consumption in Japan that was hit by the epidemic. The relief targets were mainly individuals, families, and small and medium-sized enterprises.
Japan’s latest public opinion survey showed that the approval rate of the cabinet led by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga fell to 50.3%, a drop of more than 10 percentage points from the 63% approval rate last month. At the same time, Japan's new crown pneumonia epidemic continues to worsen, and the number of new confirmed cases in a single day remains high. More than 50% of the interviewees believed that the Japanese government’s “Go To Travel” plan was the cause of the outbreak in Japan.
Go To Campaign plan summary
According to China-Singapore Jingwei, citing Reuters' Chinese website, some analysts said that the Japanese economy will shrink less than originally expected this year, but it will not return to the level before the new crown epidemic at least until early 2022.
According to the report, although the economy is still affected by the epidemic, interviewed analysts still have different views on the next policy action of the Bank of Japan. This highlights the belief that more people believe that the central bank's means to support economic growth may have been exhausted.
A December Reuters survey of 27 analysts showed that in the current fiscal year ending in March, the Japanese economy may shrink by 5.3%, higher than the 5.6% contraction estimated in November. The forecast increase is mainly due to the revision of Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) from July to September to an annual rate of 22.9%, which is better than the initial estimate due to the recovery of consumption and capital expenditure. In addition, Japan’s $708 billion new economic stimulus package is also expected to support a fragile economic recovery.
Harumi Taguchi, chief analyst at IHS Markit, said that “if overseas demand accelerates growth” and the government’s stimulus package encourages companies to increase spending, “economic recovery may accelerate”.
Analysts expect Japan's economy to rebound by 3.4% in the next fiscal year, in line with the November survey forecast. However, the recent surge in new crown cases may slow the recovery.
Six of the 40 analysts interviewed expect that the Japanese economy will return to pre-epidemic levels in the fiscal year beginning in April 2021, 15 are expected to be in fiscal year 2022, and 19 are expected to be in fiscal year 2023. Years or later.
